July 2024

[Stratton20]

Wednesday- thursday and even into parts of friday could be very wet here, though its very tricky, some of the short range models like the FV2 show banding setting up as the low moves inland near matagorda bay, and even when the low reaches north texas on friday its still pulling in a couple of bands off the gulf into se texas, the FV2 illustrates how tricky of a forecast this will be, you could easily see 6-8+ inches if a band sets up over your area, or you could see just an inch or two

[DoctorMu]

It's been raining moderate to heavy on and off here for the past few days.There a lot of standing water, and mosquitoes of course.

Similar here. We've had 2.72 inches over the last two days. That brings us to a whopping 8.95 inches for July. A "personal best" for July rain in CLL. There are toadstools by one of the trees in the front yard. lol Usually I'm fighting chinch bugs and alkaline sprinkler water.

[djmike]

Is that all for the Houston area? Its all off to the east .

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Total bust for the week.

Is it October yet?

[tireman4]

168
FXUS64 KHGX 241139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Keeping it short and to the point...a wet and stormy weather
pattern will prevail today and Thursday with scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall at times.

The mid to upper level trough rooted over Texas will dig a little
more S-SW and several embedded disturbances will move into
Southeast TX. With high amounts of moisture in place, widespread
PWs of 2.3- 2.5 inches, we are expecting to see good shower and
thunderstorm coverage over our local area. A coastal trough may
also play into our weather scenario today and Thursday and could
result in multiple rounds of storms, in particular over areas near
and south of I-10.

The exact timing and location of the showers and storms will
continue to be a little tricky. Although HiRes models continue to
carry the higher chances of rain near and south of I-10, areas
north of I-10 may still have the opportunity for strong slow
moving storms later today. Good rain chances remain overnight,
mainly along the southern half of Southeast TX. On Thursday, we
may see a similar pattern develop with showers and storms
developing mainly over areas near and south of I-10 and expanding
northward as the day progresses.

A Flood Watch is in effect for most of Southeast TX through this
evening and could be extended into Thursday. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall at times, with rain rates
of 2-4 inches per hour possible. This could lead to minor flooding
in urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas. Localized flash
flooding in some isolated spots is possible as well. Those within
the entraining storms could have a higher threat of flooding.
Locations that continue to have debris clogging the drainage
system could also exasperate flooding issues. There may also be
rises in rivers and small streams and these rises could be ongoing
for several hours after the heavy rain.

WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook through tonight now has a
Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) over parts of Chambers, Liberty, and
Galveston County (including Galveston Island), a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 4) southward of a line from Colorado County
northeastward into Trinity County, and a Marginal Risk (level 1
out of 4) for the rest of Southeast TX. The Moderate Risk could be
expanded later today. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place
for much of Southeast TX for Thursday to Thursday night.

Please monitor the latest forecast updates, have multiple ways of
receiving of weather alerts, and check the road conditions before
heading out. Never drive through flooded areas.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Wet weather continues through the remainder of the work-week with
decreasing rain/storm chances into the upcoming week.

Mid-level troughing remains strong over the southern Plains,
providing enough lifting across SE TX. Deep moisture continues to
surge inland with PWAT values into the 2.1 to 2.5 inch range. As
we head into the weekend, a weak surface trough is also progged to
develop along the TX coast, providing decent surface convergence.
Great dynamic aloft and at the surface along with sufficient
moisture will be enough to produce periods of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Latest
deterministic guidance brings widespread rain/storms Friday night
into Saturday as dynamic aloft becomes stronger with a passing jet
and a 700 mb frontogenesis develop along the coastal counties.
Therefore, will continue with rain/storms likely through the
weekend. Will continue to monitor potential for flooding, at least
through the first half of the long term. WPC has our region under
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall across most
of Southeast TX Friday into Sunday.

Ridging aloft and at low levels will begin to build across the
Southern/Eastern CONUS, mainly after Sunday. This pattern will
help to weaken any forcing/lifting aloft. However, persistent warm
and humid onshore winds will keep rain/storm chances across the
region on Sunday. High pressure finally shift west into the
region early next week, bringing back summer-like weather with
diurnal convection and increasing/warmer temperatures.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions expected across SE TX. Areas of SHRA/TSRA
expected throughout the day today. S-SE winds generally at 5-10
KTS today but some storms could produce variable and strong gusty
winds. Heavy rainfall is also possible at times and may lower
vis/cigs to IFR-MVFR. Iso-sct SHRA/TSRA for tonight, but chances
may likely remain closer to the coast. MVFR cigs will build again
overnight, and some sites could lower to IFR on occasion. A few
more rounds of storms expected Thu morning.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the coastal waters today. This activity will develop in
response to a coastal trough moving north-northeast along the TX
coast. Winds and seas will generally remain light to moderate;
however, gusty winds, elevated seas (4 to 6 ft), and frequent
lightning will be possible with any strong storms. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution conditions can be expected today/tonight.
This active pattern will continue through the weekend as the
boundary meanders along the coast.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 72 80 70 / 70 50 80 30
Houston (IAH) 84 74 81 73 / 90 80 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 85 78 / 90 80 90 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ177>179-195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...JM

[Cpv17]

Total bust for the week.

Is it October yet?

Same here. One of the bigger busts I can recall. Can’t remember a time where we went through 70-90% rain chances for 3-5 days straight and barely picked up anything. Haven’t even had one tenth yet.

[DoctorMu]

The air is pretty worked over up here in CLL. It looks like a coastal event today.

[tireman4]

It's been a long time since I've seen so much flooding along the Guadalupe in Kerrville.

What Steve is alluding to. The Hill Country has seen much much needed rain

[Stratton20]

Ill have to concede and call this week a major bust, its just absolutely sad, thought the convection would maybe get further inland somewhat, guess thats not happening

[Texashawk]

Bust for us too. As usual, it’ll be a Louisiana event. We’ve had 90% rain chances all week but we’ve barely got 2 inches total since Sunday.

[Cpv17]

Ill have to concede and call this week a major bust, its just absolutely sad, thought the convection would maybe get further inland somewhat, guess thats not happening

At least the Hill Country got some nice much needed rains.

[user:null]

There's a reason why people are losing trust in these weather forecasters (even "No Hype" Space City Weather): they keep failing miserably regarding these weather predictions.

For example, Space City Weather put out articles about how "Beryl wasn't a concern for Texas." Then the track shifted to hitting the Houston area (and, hence, the fallout regarding outages/restoration, clean up of debris, etc).

Now all these forecasters talk of flooding events this week ... and yet nothing is seeming to materialize (at least, so far).

[tireman4]

The radar and Mother Nature says...not so fast with the lack of rain. Also, let me add, it has been raining pretty well north of the Humble area, so talk of bust is not complete.The rain at the coast is slowly moving inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

MVFR/VFR conditions continuing this afternoon across SE Texas.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon, tapering off in the evening. Isolated showers expected
to continue along the coast overnight. MVFR CIGS will prevail
overnight. Could see periods of IFR CIGs. VSBYs may decrease in
areas with heavier rainfall. Winds out of the SE at 5-10kts. Some
storms could produce variable and gusty winds. Rain chances return
during the afternoon tomorrow.

[Pas_Bon]

At the very least, it’s July 24 and high temps are barely into the 80’s and no flooding for my neck of the woods in League City. I’ll take that every damn day.

[DoctorMu]

At the very least, it’s July 24 and high temps are barely into the 80’s and no flooding for my neck of the woods in League City. I’ll take that every damn day.

88°F in College Station. Cloudy. My grass and trees are actually green. The sprinklers are off. I'll take this for the remainder of the summer and every summer from now on!

[Stratton20]

The 18z HRRR does try to bring more heavy rain in land closer to houston tommorow, but looks like rain could linger into saturday evening, so still chances we could see some activity here

[don]

No bust down here, if you think it's a bust you probably read too much into the broadbrush high rainfall totals the models had.It's Summer and due to a lack of forcing this time of year, without a TC or Tropical Low excessive rainfall amounts tend to be localized. Just because your specific neighborhood doesn't get a washout doesn't make the event a bust.It's not like we're hurting for rain anyway, we just had a hurricane...

[Cromagnum]

It wasn't a bust everywhere. We were in Austin all week working on finding a new home, but when we came back our rain gauge was overflowed and there was lots of standing water everywhere.

[Dls2010r]

In the last 4 days here in Santa Fe I’ve had 5 inches so far. 2 of that was today alone. Definitely not a bust.

[Stratton20]

Even the drier period after this weekend is looking more short lived as models yet again show another backdoor trough digging down into the central plains after a few days of hot and dry weather as the ridge begins to reform and really amplify over the western and northern US, overall we should escape a prolonged heat wave yet again!