July 2024

[djmike]

Wheres our widespread rains? Everything dissipates onshore!

[Cpv17]

Wheres our widespread rains? Everything dissipates onshore!

Honestly, I don’t really see much rain happening today for the majority of SETX. And tomorrow looks to be mainly a coastal event. So far this has been a bust for my area.

[Stratton20]

wednesday- thursday looks like the best chances for heavy rain across se texas, im sticking with 3-6 inches widespread in se texas regardless, as models are split on if the surface low moves in or not, its a very tricky forecast the next 48-72 hours, even a slight change in the track of a surface low can drastically change who sees the heaviest rains

[tireman4]

Radar 12 35 pm..Edit..power is out at my house in Humble ( Groves) ( estimated power on by 8:30 pm). Boy, this would be a great time to have a generator. Oh wait, I bought one. Will not be installed until September 26th. Yea!

[Cpv17]

Interestingly, the 12z GFS shifted further inland.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

While thunderstorm activity has not quite been as extensive as
initially anticipated this afternoon, we nonetheless continue to
carry the chance for shower and storm development through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While light
southeast winds will generally prevail, any stronger storms that
develop may produce brief periods of reduced visibility and gusty
winds of around 20-25kt. Storm activity will begin to taper off
beginning after 00Z, and a brief inactive period is expected
overnight. The overnight hours will see the development of MVFR to
potentially IFR cigs and perhaps some patchy fog. MVFR cigs
continue into tomorrow, where we will see yet another round of
storms initiating near the coast in the morning and pushing inland
over the course of the day.

Cady

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has a more vigorous low moving in land

[srainhoutx]

It's been a long time since I've seen so much flooding along the Guadalupe in Kerrville.

[djmike]

Im calling bust for beaumont area today! Maybe not tomorrow, but today! Yes.

[tireman4]

942
FXUS64 KHGX 232047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

While a fairly robust line of thunderstorms has developed over the
past couple of hours and brought a series of heavy downpours to
portions of the northern zones, overall thunderstorm coverage
today has been slightly less than initially anticipated. This
could be due to a number of factors, including reduced diurnal
heating due to abundant thick cloud cover, a less conducive inland
environment in the wake of strong convection near the coast and
resulting decreases in instability, and slightly lower total
moisture availability than what is expected tomorrow. That being
said, we continue to monitor the potential for heavy downpours
(and perhaps a few isolated wind gusts) through the evening before
a brief lull in activity is expected following the loss of
daytime heating. The flooding threat for today is not quite over
-- particularly for those north of I-10, where some locations have
already picked up 2-3 inches of rainfall thus far. Additional
rainfall in previously impacted locations could result in some
localized flash flooding.

Tomorrow is shaping up to be the most conducive day for heavy
rainfall this week with the arrival of a slightly deeper plume of
moisture overnight (global models indicate an increase in total PW
values to around 2.3-2.5 in). This increase, along with the
continued presence of a weakly defined stationary boundary and the
slow approach of the main upper trough axis, will drive an
increase in rainfall coverage beginning near the coast in the
morning and progressing further inland over the course of the day.
Widespread totals of 2-3" to the south of the I-10 corridor can be
expected, with diminishing totals further north. However, given
the high amounts of rainfall across the northern zones in recent
days, the resultant saturated soils will result in poorer drainage
and therefore an increased flood risk despite less extensive
rainfall coverage. As such, a Flood Watch has been issued for most
of the area beginning at 6 AM CDT tomorrow.

Rainfall coverage will begin to diminish with the loss of daytime
heating tomorrow, but isolated activity could linger beyond
sunset. As for temperatures, extensive cloud cover and greater
rainfall coverage will keep things well above normal, with highs
in the lower 80s. Overnight lows for both tonight and tomorrow
night will remain situated in the 70s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Dreary, rainy conditions will continue through Thursday as an upper
level trough remains in place across the Southern Plains/ArkLaTex
area as a result of two areas of ridging/high pressure over the SW
CONUS and Atlantic/Eastern Sea Board. This flow regime continues to
supply SE Texas with numerous shortwave impulses, with models
indicating the development of a coastal trough along the Texas
coastal bend. Deep moisture of 2.0-2.5" PWs in conjunction with the
aforementioned lifting mechanisms will bring periods of numerous
storms into the weekend. With deep moisture in place, saturated
forecast soundings and ample instability, these storms will have
high precipitation efficiency, capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. SE Texas will also be on the peripheral on an upper level
jet streak associated with the aforementioned trough during this
period, which could provide additional forcing for training storms.

For Thursday, WPC has most of SE Texas under a Slight (level 2/4)
Risk of excessive rainfall, with a Marginal (level 1/4) in place for
both Friday and Saturday. Forecasted rainfall totals through the end
of the week range from 3-6" with isolated higher amounts possible.
Stronger/training storms could produce those totals within just a
few hours, resulting in flash flooding. Numerous rounds of storms
should also saturate soils, making them increasingly prone to runoff
and minor river flooding as the week progresses. Clogged storm
drains may further exasperate urban flooding, so try to keep them
clear of any lingering debris from Hurricane Beryl.

High pressure begins to build over the northwestern Gulf over the
weekend, decreasing rain chances and allowing temperatures to
gradually rise. Thursdays highs will be in the the lower 80s due to
ample rainfall and cloud cover. By Sunday, highs will reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s. The heavy rainfall threat will also decrease
over the weekend, though the presence of deep moisture will allow
for any stronger storms to produce locally heavy rainfall. By
Monday, a 597 dam midlevel ridge/high will develop over the ArkLaTex
region, further reducing rain chances and increasing temperatures.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

While thunderstorm activity has not quite been as extensive as
initially anticipated this afternoon, we nonetheless continue to
carry the chance for shower and storm development through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While light
southeast winds will generally prevail, any stronger storms that
develop may produce brief periods of reduced visibility and gusty
winds of around 20-25kt. Storm activity will begin to taper off
beginning after 00Z, and a brief inactive period is expected
overnight. The overnight hours will see the development of MVFR to
potentially IFR cigs and perhaps some patchy fog. MVFR cigs
continue into tomorrow, where we will see yet another round of
storms initiating near the coast in the morning and pushing inland
over the course of the day.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected
throughout much of the upcoming work week. Caution flags could be
warranted by Wednesday as a coastal trough tightens the pressure
gradient. An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered to
numerous thunderstorms daily into the weekend, especially during the
overnight and afternoon hours. Winds and seas will be elevated near
any stronger thunderstorms.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 84 72 82 / 30 70 40 70
Houston (IAH) 74 83 74 82 / 50 90 80 90
Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 85 / 80 90 90 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03

[Stratton20]

lol

[jasons2k]

Been in donut-land all day. I’m currently under a flood advisory with a dry driveway.

[davidiowx]

Been in donut-land all day. I’m currently under a flood advisory with a dry driveway.

Yep, barely a drizzle around here as well. Seems like one of those “push the heavy rains back until whoops, here’s the heat!” Seems like that happens quite often around here.

Granted, some areas have received some good rains though. Just not, me so I digress.

[biffb816]

I've had about an inch of rain in about an hour both yesterday and today.

I've lived here most of my life, so I'm pretty used to random summer afternoon downpours, but the lack of thunder is confusing me.

[Cpv17]

Been in donut-land all day. I’m currently under a flood advisory with a dry driveway.

Yep, barely a drizzle around here as well. Seems like one of those “push the heavy rains back until whoops, here’s the heat!” Seems like that happens quite often around here.

Granted, some areas have received some good rains though. Just not, me so I digress.

I feel the same way. We haven’t had jack here the past couple days.

[Cpv17]

The same places around Conroe that got pounded yesterday just got it again today. Sheesh.

[don]

It's been raining moderate to heavy on and off here for the past few days.There a lot of standing water, and mosquitoes of course.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro has about 6-8 inches for the houston metro and se texas, as the surface low moves slowly northward NE on thursday

[tireman4]

Things could get dicey tonight into tomorrow

[Cpv17]

I need some advice on something. If anyone could help me out, please pm me.