July 2024

[tireman4]

618
FXUS64 KHGX 221131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

At 3 am this morning, GOES-16 indicated TPW values between 1.7-2.10
inches across the inland portions, but these values wont stick for
too long. Near sunrise today, a pulse of warm moist air from the
Gulf will begin to make its way northward into Southeast Texas and
is expected to quickly expand across the rest of the local area by
early afternoon, increasing PWs to 2.1-2.3 inches areawide. With an
unstable airmass in place and the mid level trough digging a little
more south across Texas today, we can expected isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to start firing up over the waters and
coastal locations this morning. Storms may then expand northward and
into the central portions of the CWA in the afternoon. Along the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area, storms developing over the
central or northern portions of Texas may once again move into this
region today. And you know what`s interesting? The storms from the
coast and the storms from the north are moving in opposite
directions...yes, towards each other. Thus, we will have to keep an
eye on those outflow boundaries, because collisions between them can
very quickly fire up strong storms capable of producing heavy
downpours and strong gusty winds. There is a chance we may have a
bit of a lull in storms during the evening to early night hours, but
a few vort maxes may move into Southeast Texas during the night
hours and could result in a few more rounds of showers although
coverage may not be as widespread as during the day.

A further increase in shower and storm activity is on tap for
Tuesday as moisture continues to rise and PWs increase to 2.2 to 2.4
inches across much of Southeast Texas, the upper level trough
deepens a little more south, and more vort maxes move overhead.
Although a little more coverage is expected, we may see a similar
pattern on Tuesday, with showers and storms developing mainly over
the waters and southern counties in the morning and quickly
expanding inland in the afternoon and evening. Storms developing to
our west or northwest could also interact with ours later in the
day. Stronger showers will be capable of producing periods of heavy
rainfall again. Some relief may occur during the nighttime hours,
however, the vort maxes and lingering boundaries could continue to
produce storms over portions of Southeast Texas at times.

Going back to mentioning the possibility of heavy downpours, we
could be seeing isolated rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour
with some of the stronger showers today and Tuesday. This could
lead to minor flooding in urban, low lying and poor drainage
areas. Ponding of water along roadways is also possible. Through
late tonight, WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 4) for the southern counties and a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 4) for the rest of Southeast Texas. Please monitor
the latest forecast updates, have multiple ways of receiving of
weather alerts, and check the road conditions before heading out.
For Tuesday and Tuesday night, there is a Slight Risk for all of
Southeast Texas.

If by any chance you dont get blessed with any storms, don`t
fret, because you will at least see partly cloudy to cloudy skies
and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s today and in the mid to
upper 80s on Tuesday - more agreeable on that ac bill at least .

Now, mosquitos are out for blood (I don`t walk my dog anymore, I run
my dog) and the additional rainfall will likely result in more mini
vampires. Make sure to protect yourself, loved ones, and pets since
mosquitos are known to spread many diseases.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

The upper-level pattern will remain the same through the second
half of the week: High pressures centered over the Desert
Southwest and over the Atlantic Ocean, and a trough in-between
stretched from the Great Lakes down through Texas. Those high
pressures will keep that trough stuck in place, and thus keep the
ongoing overcast, rainy conditions for us in Southeast Texas.
There will be periods of widespread showers and storms, and there
will be lulls, but the main takeaway is that rainfall -
potentially heavy rainfall - will be likely each day into this
weekend. PWATs through the week will be in the 2.2-2.6" range, so
any storm could have the potential for producing localized heavy
downpours. Generally could see up to 4-7" of rainfall through the
end of the week, but localized areas may end up seeing those
amounts within just a few hours if the strong storms end up
training over the same location.

WPC has placed SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday, and then Marginal Risks (level 1
of 4) for Thursday and Friday. Not only will there be locally
heavy rainfall, but the continued days of rainfall will lead to
well saturated soils enhancing the risk for excessive rainfall.
Generally minor urban or small stream flooding will be the main
concern, but cannot out-rule instances of flash flooding. With
damage from Beryl potentially still on the ground, please try to
keep storm drains cleared of debris to help get this heavy
rainfall underground and away from structures.

As we go into the weekend, the high pressure from the Atlantic
begins to slide westward and shoving the trough to the north. This
will help limit the widespread rainfall potential this weekend.
However, PWATs will still be high, which combined with daytime
heating, will lead to diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

The overcast skies and rainfall will lead to well below normal
high temperatures through the week. Highs on Wednesday and
Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s, then into the upper 80s by
Friday. With the upper level ridge moving overhead over the
weekend, temperatures will increase back into the low 90s.
Overnight lows will stay near to slightly above normal with lows
in the low to mid 70s through Friday, then mid to upper 70s over
the weekend

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

The chance of MVFR cigs/vis has increased, especially in areas
that experienced heavy rainfall on Sunday. Current guidance
suggests that our northern terminals (CXO, UTS, and CLL) have the
best chance of MVFR conditions. SHRA/TSRA chances are expected to
increase near the coast later this morning, before increasing by
this afternoon for areas farther inland. Though winds are expected
to be light, locally higher winds will be possible within and near
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Showers and storms are starting to develop over the nearshore
waters and coastal locations and are expected to gradually expand
northward throughout the day today. Stronger storms in the
afternoon over portions of SE TX and may be capable of producing
strong gusty winds as well as reduced vis/cigs due to heavy
rainfall. TEMPOs are in place to account for this, but several
AMDs may be required since confidence on exact timing isn`t high
at the moment. Winds will be S-SW this morning then S-SE in the
afternoon at 5-10 KTS. VRB winds possible in/near storms.
Expecting a lull in activity tonight, but iso showers could
prevail at some locations. Areas of patchy fog is possible, esp
for locations that received rain. Light VRB winds tonight into
Tue morning. Areas of showers and storms expected again on Tue.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Light onshore flow and low seas will persist through the week.
There will be periods of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the week as well. Strong, gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall reducing visibility will be possible with isolated
stronger storms leading to hazardous marine conditions at times.
Coverage will be highest over the coastal waters during the late
night through early afternoon hours, but at least isolated storms
will be possible at any time.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 86 72 / 70 70 80 30
Houston (IAH) 91 76 86 74 / 70 50 90 70
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 86 77 / 80 60 80 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Fowler

[tireman4]

Radar 07 22 24

[tireman4]

Radar at 11 am

[Pas_Bon]

It’s mighty wet out here in League City
No watering for the week. Whoop

[DoctorMu]

It’s mighty wet out here in League City
No watering for the week. Whoop

Love the clouds too, keeping the energy usage down as well as sprinklers set to OFF.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like less rain this week than originally thought. The coastal low looks to rob most of the rain from central Texas and inland SETX counties and confines it to the coast.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 still early in the game, the euro actually tracks the low in land and not offshore

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 still early in the game, the euro actually tracks the low in land and not offshore

The WPC has now cut back on totals as well. It’s more similar to the CMC and GFS.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 we will see, but its still early in the game

[Stratton20]

Big differences on where the coastal low tracks on the EURO, GFS and CMC, GFS and CMC are off shore while the euro tracks it inland around matagorda and then lifts due north , im not necessarily sold on the euro yet, but i also dont think its a guarantee that the low stays offshore despite what the GFS and CMC suggest, their still is quite some uncertainty in that department which can lead to big adjustments in the rainfall output as well, widespread 4-6 inches still looks like a good bet for most of se texas, but could be easily more or less depending on where that low tracks

[tireman4]

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

An active period is expected to prevail through the duration of
the TAF period and beyond as widespread thunderstorm activity is
expected to occur area-wide over at least the next several days.
Ongoing thunderstorm activity along and south of the I-10 corridor
will continue over the next several hours, after which a broken
line of storms along a weak frontal boundary will approach from
the north through late afternoon/early evening. A few stronger
wind gusts may occur with any stronger storms, but winds will
otherwise generally remain near or below 10 knots. Rainfall may
result in temporary reductions to sub-VFR visibility. Furthermore,
MVFR cigs are expected to develop overnight and into tomorrow as
more widespread thunderstorms move into the area during the
morning hours.

[Stratton20]

One more thing to note is ensembles do dry us out after this week but i do not foresee a massive heat ridge parking over us , ensembles agree with this and keep the heat ridge to our north west, more centered over colorado, while keeping temps near normal to slightly below normal all the way through the end of the first week of august, could help keep at least some scattered afternoon showers around in the long term

[Stratton20]

Herzog said he thinks the low is going to move in land and north , not offshore like the gfs and cmc

[DoctorMu]

1.38 inches so far.

That's 7.5 inches of rain for July. The most I've every seen in CLL? There may have been a year with a tropical system...but I don't think so.

Checking my personal records: 7.3 inches in 2014 was the next highest rainfall for this month. Usually, July provide 2-3 inches or less of rain for us.

[tireman4]

Radar at 725..

[DoctorMu]

1.66 inches total. Some cells are waning, but a pretty good effort for day 1. Rain chance are 40-80% for another solid week.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em. I do have to dump some standing water and hose down with DEET.

[Stratton20]

Lol 00z ICON drops a rain bomb of 15 inches just north of houston

[tireman4]

999
FXUS64 KHGX 231209
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
709 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

We will be proceeding into what may be the wettest and stormiest
part of the week as chances for showers and thunderstorms over
portions of Southeast TX continue high.

The mid to upper level trough will remain rooted over Texas
during the next few days with several embedded disturbances moving
across Southeast TX from time to time. A surplus of moisture is
expected across Southeast Texas during the next few days as warm
moist air from the Gulf continues to push into the region. Earlier
this morning, the GOES-16 TPW was indicating values in the
2.1-2.3 inches over many locations of Southeast TX. Unfortunately,
these values may increase a little more today and Wednesday with
Global models indicating a swath of PWs between 2.2-2.4 inches
over much of the region today and even the coastal locations
rising to 2.5 inches on Wednesday. In addition, the mid level RH
values will also remain high during the next few days and we can
see in the forecast soundings how saturated the profile is from
the surface through 400 mb.

The combination of the moisture, the mid-upper level trough, and
the passage of several vort maxes/disturbances will be sufficient
for several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms today and
Wednesday. The exact timing and location of these storms a little
tricky, but HiRes models suggest a similar pattern to yesterday`s.
During the morning, showers and storms from the Gulf will move
into the coastal locations while some storms move over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region. As the day progresses, inland
showers and storms are expected increase in coverage and
intensity. A vort max moving through the northern region could
continue to result in ongoing rainfall for our northern counties.
On Wednesday, the higher chances of rain are more focused on the
southern half of Southeast TX, although the northern half could
still see some good storms developing during the day.

Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with
rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour possible. This could lead to
minor flooding in urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas and
those within entraining storms could have a higher threat of
flooding. Locations that continue to have debris clogging the
drainage system could see minor flooding issues as well. For today
and Wednesday, WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a
Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for much of Southeast Texas. Please
monitor the latest forecast updates, have multiple ways of
receiving of weather alerts, and check the road conditions before
heading out. Never drive through flooded areas.

In response to the cloud and rainfall coverage, the highs today
and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s and the lows will be
in the low to mid 70s. Some locations could see patchy fog
overnight and early morning.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Unsettled weather continues in the long term as troughing remains
anchored over the Southern Plains. Upper-level forcing, daytime
heating, sufficient moisture, and surface convergence due to weak
boundaries/sea breeze will contribute to periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Deterministic solutions keep showing a well-
saturated boundary layer with PWAT values into the 2.1-2.4 inch
range. This is well-above normal for July standards. The NAEFS
Standardized Anomaly table maintains 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal for precipitable water across most of SE TX through
early the upcoming week. This adds confidence that thunderstorms
will potentially be capable of producing heavy rain. Therefore,
the possibility of minor flooding will continue to be monitored.
In fact, WPC highlights this threat of excessive rainfall in their
outlook for Day 3 (Slight Risk), Day 4 (Marginal Risk),and Day 5
(Marginal Risk). The pattern slowly changes through the weekend
with a ridge of high pressure building to our east. Forcing aloft
will weaken a bit; however, surface warm and more humid onshore
flow combined with any sea breeze interactions or weaker surface
boundaries will aid to keep storm chances into early next week.

The good news is that 850 mb temperatures will generally be into the
upper teens for much of the work-week, so highs will be below normal
for this time of year. A gradual warming trend can be expected
during the weekend and into the upcoming week as the high pressure
over the eastern CONUS brings highs into the low 90s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

SH/TS activity currently along the coastal regions and is
expected to expand further inland as the day progresses. Another
area of SH/TS just north of the CWA is expected to move in or
near CLL/UTS this morning. As the day progresses, expect SH/TS to
increase in coverage and intensity. Heavy rainfall expected with
stronger storms and could reduce vis/cigs to MVFR/IFR at times.
S-SE winds at 5-10 KTS expected today, but storms could produce
strong gusty VRB winds. TEMPOs will likely be required later
today.

A lull in activity can be expected tonight, although coastal
locations could see some iso activity through the overnight and
early morning hours.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

An active week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
can be expected as multiple disturbances move through the region.
Low pressure over TX and high pressure to our east will continue
to bring light to occasionally moderate winds across the Upper TX
coast this week. Seas will generally remain into the 3 to 4 ft
range. Stronger winds and higher seas can be expected with near
any strong storms. Caution flag conditions are anticipated,
particularly by mid-week as a surface boundary and associated low
slowly moves over the region.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 72 85 71 / 80 30 70 30
Houston (IAH) 86 74 84 74 / 90 70 90 70
Galveston (GLS) 86 76 85 76 / 90 90 90 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...JM

[tireman4]

Radar 7 30 am 07 23 24

[jasons2k]

They were right when they said similar to yesterday…looks just like yesterday am.