July 2024
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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Thats simply just a beautiful map! Love seeing all those bright colors!
So I guess the rain chances dropped off for our area today?
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Stratton20
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The GEFS keeps near normal- below average temps all the way through the end of the first week of august, ridge stays out to our west
How long does that ridge stay in place, and will it keep anything tropical from heading toward us?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 20, 2024 4:18 pm The GEFS keeps near normal- below average temps all the way through the end of the first week of august, ridge stays out to our west
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Stratton20
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Sambucol it may temporarily build over us the following week from now, but the GEFS predominantly keeps the ridge anchored over the western US, as long as the ridge stays in that part of the country, texas is an open book to the tropics
^ It's going to be wet. In the meantime, enjoying a DP of 62°F.
Yep.. taking the kids to splash way Monday and looks like a bummer. Rain is fine, just not lightning please. At least sunscreen isn’t needed LOL
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Stratton20
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Ignoring the ICON’s rainfall coastal cutoff biacy problem, it does have some really impressive rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches just off shore , which could be easily over land
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Stratton20
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00z GFS and CMC also have some impressive totals, most of that falls in the tuesday- late thursday timeframe
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Stratton20
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lol kprc has at least a 80-100% chance of rain for the houston metro this monday through sunday
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Stratton20
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The NAM is the first short range model that is now in range of the heavy rain event potentially, has a big bullseye of 10-15 inches in parts of se texas western counties
The WPC
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Conroe area getting pounded.
https://youtu.be/cK5G8fPmWeA?si=bIkXCNJnUJ-SqEIV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Showers and thunderstorms near the coast for much of the day have
thrown an outflow boundary northward (now situated along the
US59/I69 corridor. Look for the region between this outflow and
a southward moving boundary from College Station-Crockett to be
the favored locations for some additional scattered development
between now and sunset. Convection should mostly diminish after
sunset with the loss of heating.
Monday: Look for additional storms to develop offshore and near
the coast heading into sunrise. Thereafter, daytime heating,
increased moisture, and whatever remnant boundary lingers across
northern and central parts of the CWA will likely fire and bring
storms to the rest of the region during the day. Though am not
anticipating widespread issues, stronger cells will produce
efficient rain rates and cannot rule out some isolated 2-5"
pockets of rain and gusty winds.
Tuesday and the rest of the week: looks equally, or more,
unsettled. Mid-upper trof from the Great Lakes to Texas will
remain parked between ridges to the east and west. In the low
levels, Gulf moisture will be on the increase with PW`s between
2.2-2.6" present on a daily basis. In addition, it appears there
will be a quasi-stationary convergent zone situated somewhere in/near
the region...with surface-H85 speed convergence notable at times.
Further up, a very messy flow will prevail aloft with embedded
(weak, hard-to-time disturbances) flowing in and around the trof.
So...the combination of all of that should lead to good rain
chances thru the work week and possibly into the weekend.
What we know:
- Ground is becoming increasingly saturated from recent rain.
- Rain is expected most days, and as this occurs on a progressive
basis...increased runoff will become likely as will the threat
for some street flooding an rises on area rivers/watersheds.
- Rain rates will be proficient. Tropical airmass will be capable
of producing several inches of rain in a short time period in
the stronger cells.
- Several models show non-stop rain much of the week. While there
will likely be rain each day...there will probably be some
breaks in between rounds for the atmosphere to re-charge.
- Expect some day-to-day changes in the forecasts.
What is uncertain:
- Exactly where any weak surface or llvl boundaries develop.
Heavier rain tends to focus near these features...and can
meander around.
- Specific timing when impacts are most probable. In general, the
atmosphere tends to be most unstable during the daytime hours
inland. That said, very small features and/or upper level
disturbances can easily reverse this in weak flow regimes like
this.
- Exactly how much rain. Think it`s fairly safe to say 3-7" can be
anticipated on a wide scale area & spread out over the next 5-7
days. Not so much concerned with that...moreso the potential
for localized areas to see those amounts in just a few hours.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Showers and thunderstorms near the coast for much of the day have
thrown an outflow boundary northward (now situated along the
US59/I69 corridor. Look for the region between this outflow and
a southward moving boundary from College Station-Crockett to be
the favored locations for some additional scattered development
between now and sunset. Convection should mostly diminish after
sunset with the loss of heating.
Monday: Look for additional storms to develop offshore and near
the coast heading into sunrise. Thereafter, daytime heating,
increased moisture, and whatever remnant boundary lingers across
northern and central parts of the CWA will likely fire and bring
storms to the rest of the region during the day. Though am not
anticipating widespread issues, stronger cells will produce
efficient rain rates and cannot rule out some isolated 2-5"
pockets of rain and gusty winds.
Tuesday and the rest of the week: looks equally, or more,
unsettled. Mid-upper trof from the Great Lakes to Texas will
remain parked between ridges to the east and west. In the low
levels, Gulf moisture will be on the increase with PW`s between
2.2-2.6" present on a daily basis. In addition, it appears there
will be a quasi-stationary convergent zone situated somewhere in/near
the region...with surface-H85 speed convergence notable at times.
Further up, a very messy flow will prevail aloft with embedded
(weak, hard-to-time disturbances) flowing in and around the trof.
So...the combination of all of that should lead to good rain
chances thru the work week and possibly into the weekend.
What we know:
- Ground is becoming increasingly saturated from recent rain.
- Rain is expected most days, and as this occurs on a progressive
basis...increased runoff will become likely as will the threat
for some street flooding an rises on area rivers/watersheds.
- Rain rates will be proficient. Tropical airmass will be capable
of producing several inches of rain in a short time period in
the stronger cells.
- Several models show non-stop rain much of the week. While there
will likely be rain each day...there will probably be some
breaks in between rounds for the atmosphere to re-charge.
- Expect some day-to-day changes in the forecasts.
What is uncertain:
- Exactly where any weak surface or llvl boundaries develop.
Heavier rain tends to focus near these features...and can
meander around.
- Specific timing when impacts are most probable. In general, the
atmosphere tends to be most unstable during the daytime hours
inland. That said, very small features and/or upper level
disturbances can easily reverse this in weak flow regimes like
this.
- Exactly how much rain. Think it`s fairly safe to say 3-7" can be
anticipated on a wide scale area & spread out over the next 5-7
days. Not so much concerned with that...moreso the potential
for localized areas to see those amounts in just a few hours.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I wouldnt be surprised to see a moderate (3/4) risk of excessive rainfall issued for parts of central- se texas for thursday, all the ingredients are basically coming together for someone to get some really big totals
Funny thing is they actually have a higher chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday than Thursday. Well ABC13 anyway.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 21, 2024 7:47 pm I wouldnt be surprised to see a moderate (3/4) risk of excessive rainfall issued for parts of central- se texas for thursday, all the ingredients are basically coming together for someone to get some really big totals
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS with a big 16-18 inch bullseye near Beaumont, where that bullseye setups is anyones guess
Folks in Beaumont should just live in boats.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 21, 2024 11:22 pm GFS with a big 16-18 inch bullseye near Beaumont, where that bullseye setups is anyones guess
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