July 2024

[Cromagnum]

Nasty hailstorm just flared up near Pasadena.

[tireman4]

Radar

[jasons2k]

Some interesting cloud formations up here.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS through the next 10 days

[DoctorMu]

Let's Go.

Relief may on its way a little early as showers descend into the Brazos Valley and SETX. They'll probably run out of steam as daytime heating wanes, but unstable, moist air is moving in

[Stratton20]

Overnight GFS and CMC getting my attention a bit more in terms of a potential flash flooding setup scenario, they both have the firehouse of moisture aimed directly over se texas, CMC has widespread 4-8 inches cross se texas with some higher totals

GFS widespread 6-8 inches over the next 10 days with some isolated higher totals

[Pas_Bon]

We’ve got a big, juicy line of storms coming in from the North. More rain this morning, folks.

[tireman4]

Incoming...

[tireman4]

744
FXUS64 KHGX 181149
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Activity along the weak cold front (just north of the CWFA at this
time) is beginning to ramp up this morning (with the help of an em-
bedded shortwave tracking down from the NW). Will be expecting all
this convection to move down into the SE TX through the early part
of the day. Locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds are like-
ly with these showers/storms as they approach our coastal counties
around noon. Much of SE TX remains in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out
of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today. Activity should mix out as the
air mass briefly stabilizes during the early afternoon. However, we
could still see some re-development by late this afternoon (along/
near any leftover boundaries and the stalled front; as well as the
additional heating). Thereafter, rain chances will be more hit and
miss...depending a lot on where this frontal boundary ends up. The
best POPs are likely to be across our central and southern/coastal
locations tonight through late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As for temperatures, highs today could be tricky given that window
of post storm stabilization during the late morning and early aft-
ernoon hours. Maxes could very well go a few degrees above the NBM
numbers in the grids for today (lower and mid 90s). Have gone with
mostly lower 90s for Fri. Lows should run in the lower and mid 70s
tonight and tomorrow night.

41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Keeping your rain boots and umbrella close by will be necessary
through most of next week. That diffuse, weak boundary will be
remaining near the coast through the weekend leading to continued
showers and thunderstorms. As of right now, looks like areas along
and south of I-10 will have the best chances for the precipitation
this weekend, but may see some isolated showers and storms all
the way up to the Piney Woods. But, rain coverage and chances
increase going into the start of the new work week as an upper
level low spins through the Central Plains bringing a stream of
shortwaves from Texas through the Mississippi River Valley. The
combination of these short waves, daytime heating, and deep
moisture (PWATs will be between 2-2.4") will lead to scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms with some storms leading
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall. WPC has placed parts of the
region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Sunday with all of SE
Texas in the Marginal Risk on Monday. Figuring out exactly where
the potential heavy rainfall may fall this far out is impossible,
but some spots through next Wednesday may see a few inches of
rain - with continued rainfall possible through the end of the
week.

High temperatures over the weekend will still rise into the low
or even mid 90s thanks to breaks in the clouds, but that might be
the last time we see the 90s through at least midweek next week.
Thanks to overcast skies and the scattered to widespread showers
or storms, highs will only get into the upper 80s for SE Texas.
Going to see overnight lows to stay above normal thanks to the
overcast skies with lows in the mid or upper 70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Overnight showers/storms moving down with a cold front are expect-
ed to continue moving south to the coast through the rest of this
morning. Gusty winds (up to 30kts) and limited visibilities (down
to around 1 mile) have been observed with some of these TSRAs. In
the wake of this convection from late morning (over northern CWA)
to the early afternoon (southern CWA) some clearing will prevail.
This additional heating could help to produce some additional SH/
TSRAs late this afternoon...generally along and south of the I-10
corridor where the weak front is expected to stall. Coverage will
be decreasing once again by this evening, but did add the mention
of VCSH back into the TAFs (for IAH south to GLS) for early tomor-
row morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Generally light onshore winds will continue through this evening,
but a weak, diffuse boundary may reach the coastal waters late
tonight leading to a brief period of light offshore winds through
Friday afternoon/evening. The southerly winds should return by
Friday night and continue through next week. Low seas are expected
through next week with wave heights remaining between 1 to 3
feet. There will be a daily chance for showers and storms into
next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 91 73 / 50 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 93 76 91 76 / 50 40 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 89 79 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler

[tireman4]

NWS Houston

[Pas_Bon]

NWS Houston

Good.....in League City here and I think my dogs have had the most traumatizing 2 weeks of their lives with fireworks on the 4th, followed shortly by Beryl, followed by further rain and random thunder/lightning. Lol.

[tireman4]

Rain fizzling out

[Pas_Bon]

Well, that was a spectacular collapse of that line.

[Cpv17]

Well, that was a spectacular collapse of that line.

It was expected to fizzle out once it hit 10. Models were in pretty good agreement about that last night.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 exactly, the more widespread potential heavy rain is next week with a more vigorous upper level low moving in , gotta watch that setup closely

[jasons2k]

We got exactly .50" of rain here this morning.

Also the wind shift/outflow has pushed well offshore and stretching over to Del Rio. We’ll have to look for something else as a focus if anything is able to redevelop later this afternoon.

[DoctorMu]

We’ve got a big, juicy line of storms coming in from the North. More rain this morning, folks.

It hit us about 4:30 am - lightning, heavy rain: 3.24 inches of liquid gold. In July.

Just 5 weeks and a couple of days until CFB season.

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 exactly, the more widespread potential heavy rain is next week with a more vigorous upper level low moving in , gotta watch that setup closely

Yeah - I didn't expect much this morning. But next week's setup looks juicy.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is a gully washer for se texas, 5-8 inches widespread

[Cpv17]

The WPC now has 3-5” over the area through the next 7 days.