July 2024

[tireman4]

Interesting

[Pas_Bon]

Interesting

What the what?

[tireman4]

Interesting

What the what?

Looks like models are trying to pick up on a cool front ( ok, wind change)

[Pas_Bon]

Interesting

What the what?

Looks like models are trying to pick up on a cool front ( ok, wind change)

I see that. I sure didn’t have cool front on my Summer 2024 bingo card. Lol

[DoctorMu]

It's official. The wife and I will be relocating to the north side of Austin over the next month, likely to the Georgetown area. Gave official word of mouth to the new boss on Friday and will sign the papers Monday or Tuesday.

Will be trading super humidity for drier, but also trading hurricanes and swampy gumbo yards for rocks, rattlesnakes, and the occasional bad hailstorm.

Congrats!.

I love the limestone - it's great for landscaping. Living on a slope instead of flat Houston brings more character to the house. The outcroppings of the Hill Country. As you probably know, the water and soil will be alkaline. Fuhghettabout azaelias, gardenias, pine trees - anything that needs a lower pH. Folks use more natural landscape and it works in the Austin/Hill Country area. Excellent lakes and boating nearby. If you and your family like hiking - this area is for you. TBH, I've never seen snakes in the Hill Country - they keep to themselves. There are plenty of snakes here in CLL, including water moccasins and copperheads and rattlers. Don't leave shoes outside though, because the occasional scorpion might take a nap in it.

Southwestern University has a fetching campus. Crime is low in the area.

The weather is simply more boring. Lower DP; the dry line often just grazes the area. The sea breeze, hurricanes, brunt of the arctic fronts often slide by. Having said that, winter and summer nights are cooler. There is a lot more great evening patio/deck weather. The air is much cleaner. Light pollution has spread, but you'll still see a lot more stars. Lots of sunshine in the Fall. There is the occasional snow.

Oh, wind - there's a lot more wind than Houston or even College Station, but it's refreshing.

[DoctorMu]

Interesting

Yeah, I saw some 80s in our long-term forecast. 25°F cooler than last late July highs.

[tireman4]

659
FXUS64 KHGX 151137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

With the mid/upper level pattern remaining in place (i.e. SE TX in
the weakness region between the ridging aloft), the slightly drier
air mass over area still won`t inhibit the development of isolated
showers/storms through this afternoon. And as it has been on late,
the best chances are expected to remain along/near the coast (main-
ly south of the I-10 corridor) with the seabreeze (~20%). Activity
should be on the decline by late this afternoon/early evening. But
tomorrow, moisture levels are progged to begin climbing once again
(PWs from 1.7 to 1.8" today/1.9 to 2.0" tomorrow). This along with
additional embedded weak disturbances in the flow aloft will allow
for increased POPs as well (20-30%) on Tues. And again, the better
chances will be from around the I-10 corridor south to the coast.

These sunnier skies will translate to warmer daytime temperatures,
with highs in the mid and upper 90s from the Brazos Valley out the
Piney Woods...mid 90s central/Houston metro and then the lower 90s
across the coastal counties...for both today and tomorrow. This is
going to produce heat index values in the 102-105F range each day.
These conditions could still have dangerous heat impacts for those
working outdoors and with people still without power. Please drink
plenty of fluids and stay safe. Overnight lows in the 70s could pro-
vide some relief. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Rainfall chances will begin to ramp up on Wednesday as an midlevel
trough begins to push into the Southern Plains. The approach of
this feature (and resultant PVA) along with robust moisture
availably (PWs of around 2.0 in) should be sufficient to provide
continued support for diurnally driven showers/storms that will
peak during the afternoon. As such, have maintained the 40-50% PoP
forecast for Wednesday with the greatest chances concentrated
along and south of the I-10 corridor. A further increase in
shower/storm coverage arrives towards the end of the week a
surface low associated with the prevailing longwave trough over
the Great Lakes drags a weak frontal boundary through the Central
Plains. With moisture availability still abundant and diurnal
heating providing sufficient instability, the environment will be
supportive of more widespread rainfall with the potential for
isolated stronger storms to produce locally heavy downpours and/or
gusty winds. While a significant flooding threat does not appear
on the cards, a few locally higher rainfall totals are possible
depending on the location of any stronger storms. Otherwise, total
weekly QPF forecast remains under an inch area-wide. The boundary
should stall somewhere over SE TX by Friday, allowing for
relatively high rainfall chances to remain in the forecast through
the duration of the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead beyond the
official forecast period, global models show a fairly robust
midlevel low developing in the Central Plains which could support
a continued wet pattern for the week of July 22.

Temperatures will initially remain near seasonal normals, with
daily highs on Wednesday in the mid/upper 90s. Overall highs will
diminish thereafter due to the expansion of expected rainfall
coverage, with many areas struggling to eclipse 90 by Friday. That
being said, the ultimate high temperatures each day will
ultimately be driven by the exact timing and development of any
thunderstorms -- with the prospect of afternoon storms certainly
making some locally lower values possible. Overnight lows will
generally remain situated in the mid/upper 70s inland and the
lower 80s along the coast.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

It should be a generally quiet forecast with only some brief patchy
fog in the early mornings and a slight chance of showers/storms for
the mornings (at the coast) and afternoons (for terminals IAH south
to the coast). Confidence remains low regarding timing/location, so
will not add any mention of precipitation in the TAFS at this time.
Otherwise, will maintain VFR conditions through the package. Light/
variable winds during the overnight hours (2-4kt) should transition
to S/SW during the day (6-10kt). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light onshore winds and 1-3 foot seas will not necessitate
caution flags and/or advisories for the foreseeable future. Daily
thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, with expected
rainfall coverage expanding by the end of the week. A few isolated
stronger storms can`t be ruled out, with brief increases in
seas/winds possible as a result. A brief shift to north winds is
possible on Friday as a weak surface frontal boundary stalls over
the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 90 81 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady

[jasons2k]

We just spent 5 days in Southwest Austin. It’s a great place to live if you can afford it. I’m allergic to cedar so I can only take so much. We enjoyed our visit. And the electricity.

[DoctorMu]

We just spent 5 days in Southwest Austin. It’s a great place to live if you can afford it. I’m allergic to cedar so I can only take so much. We enjoyed our visit. And the electricity.

No place on earth has more allergies than College Station. I just take a 24 hr non-drowsy pill in the morning, spray Astepro nasally when I get up and when I go to bed, and I'm good. If you wait until an allergic reaction, it's too late. Block those histamine receptors early and often - then go do your thing.

I use cedar mulch to keep insects away from the front and back landscape beds. It really works.

[Cromagnum]

We just spent 5 days in Southwest Austin. It’s a great place to live if you can afford it. I’m allergic to cedar so I can only take so much. We enjoyed our visit. And the electricity.

No place on earth has more allergies than College Station. I just take a 24 hr non-drowsy pill in the morning, spray Astepro nasally when I get up and when I go to bed, and I'm good. If you wait until an allergic reaction, it's too late. Block those histamine receptors early and often - then go do your thing.

I use cedar mulch to keep insects away from the front and back landscape beds. It really works.

Can confirm that. The 10 years I lived in B/CS I had nonstop sinus infections.

[tireman4]

From Larry Cosgrove

About Those Monsoons....And 500MB Weaknesses
Many times you will read me writing about heat ridges and weaknesses. One important for generating hot temperatures, and the other a conduit for moisture, or tropical systems. Both features figure prominently in the forecast for the second half of this month and in August. Let me explain why.
First, look at the global 500MB level heights, where I outline the positions of the various subtropical highs. In between the various ridge cores, you have gaps or weaknesses. While there are no well-defined tropical cyclones, any such system that would form would travel first under the high pressure areas, then recurve poleward upon encountering the gap between the two anticyclones. It looked like we would have to wait until the middle of next month before cracks appear in the ridge system. Guess again. The first breach occurred with a cold front and Beryl last week. Now the numerical model forecasts show another such breach in the 6-10 day period, a hot West, cool Central, hot East alignment.
Now consider the monsoons. There is a huge Asian monsoonal moisture axis, linked to a Phase 2,3,4 Madden-Julian Oscillation. There is a pronounced linkage to the polar westerlies, and that energy may tend to pump up strong ridging across the USA again in the 11-15 day period. If so, another widespread hot spell will envelop the nation while Canada turns stormy as shortwaves follow through along the jet stream just above the International Border. The Saharan Air Layer and various TUTT signatures should suppress chances for hurricane development. But think about what happens when the weaknesses line up properly and the ridges stay strong, but separate (much like what is causing an area from Morocco to Kazakhstan to fry this week)? Thunderstorms in Texas and the Gulf States this week will seem like kid stuff when that active ITCZ in Africa starts putting out waves that make it westward through the Atlantic Basin.

[jasons2k]

We just spent 5 days in Southwest Austin. It’s a great place to live if you can afford it. I’m allergic to cedar so I can only take so much. We enjoyed our visit. And the electricity.

No place on earth has more allergies than College Station. I just take a 24 hr non-drowsy pill in the morning, spray Astepro nasally when I get up and when I go to bed, and I'm good. If you wait until an allergic reaction, it's too late. Block those histamine receptors early and often - then go do your thing.

I use cedar mulch to keep insects away from the front and back landscape beds. It really works.

I take Zyrtec daily plus a nasal spray as prescribed by my ENT. I generally don’t have issues here in Houston except a few days every fall and spring. It’s like clockwork.

The mountain cedar still gets me every time. Warm water flushing helps some.

The weather for the past week is about as good as it gets for July in Texas.

[Stratton20]

Gonna be a wet next few weeks here

[Cpv17]

Gonna be a wet next few weeks here

Mosquitoes are gonna be outta control.

[DoctorMu]

Gonna be a wet next few weeks here

Mosquitoes are gonna be outta control.

TG for 25% DEET spray.

[Cromagnum]

Gonna be a wet next few weeks here

Mosquitoes are gonna be outta control.

They already are. I was driving along 288 on Saturday evening near a field and my truck was plastered by a gigantic swarm of them. Had to spray it off when I got home and it smelled absolutely horrible.

[Stratton20]

ABC13 mets have a 60-70% chance of rain everyday starting this weekend and continuing all the way through next weekend, will need to monitor this pattern as a stalled boundary can become a focal point for a heavy rain event somewhere

[DoctorMu]

That Midwestern trough hanging down to Texas could likely be a repeated occurrence for the remainder of the summer as the Western Ridge stays west.

Hopefully, the benefits will be attracting pop up showers and cooler temps rather than as a magnet for Tropical Cyclones meandering in the GoM.

[DoctorMu]

ABC13 mets have a 60-70% chance of rain everyday starting this weekend and continuing all the way through next weekend, will need to monitor this pattern as a stalled boundary can become a focal point for a heavy rain event somewhere

40-50% here. Unfortunately, I did have to water Sunday am as we were Lucy-ed both Friday and Saturday.

There are legit rain chanced Thursday - Tuesday. So we have a chance without naming the system!

[Ptarmigan]

I rather have low 90s and chance of rain than last summer or summer 2011.