Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[srainhoutx]

I certainly see a threat to Belize and the Yucatan. Beyond that the word 'collapse' Re: steering currents from Forecaster Stewart caught my eye. Tough intensity forecast for sure. I still think our neck of the woods is alright, for now.

[biggerbyte]

If the front comes through, by default folks behind the front are in good shape. My concerns are long term if these current systems hang around, and with newer systems. This frontal passage will only be good for a relativly short span.

Then, if this system were to get into the BOC and stall, then grow to be rather large and powerful, then the path could be up for grabs anyway.

Just a thought. Looks like we are all on the same page, short term.

[biggerbyte]

I'd be curious to know if wxman still thinks this storm is headed for Florida and the ne Gulf?

[Andrew]

I am suprised this board is not jumping after what the GFS showed:



Mathew makes it to the BOC before going back south into the YP. Maybe just maybe the western gulf isn't as safe as we once thought.

WOW the trof is much much weaker. Doesn't make it nearly as far south:



More surprises to come.

[Andrew]

The GFS has no clue what is going on with the trof:

[srainhoutx]

For comparison, the 12Z Euro Ensembles...

[Andrew]

NOGAPS FWIW:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 8&set=Core

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232349
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 77.7W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[sambucol]

I think folks are thinking we are in the clear because of the cold
front coming through here Sunday night. But I haven't been 100% convinced that's the case.

[Ptarmigan]

I think folks are thinking we are in the clear because of the cold
front coming through here Sunday night. But I haven't been 100% convinced that's the case.

Same here.

[srainhoutx]

Hot tower on IR...

[Andrew]

At this point HPC doesn't look to be so confident as to how far the front will come through:

[srainhoutx]

00Z...

[Ptarmigan]

So much uncertainties with Matthew.

Scenarios:
1.) Makes landfall on Central America and dies off.
2.) Heads for Florida.
3.) Goes to the Gulf of Mexico.
4.) Lingers over the Caribbean and becomes a monsterous hurricane.

None are enticing.

Latest satellite images:

[Andrew]

NAM looks further west and south:



72: NAM MUCH MUCH FASTER:

[Andrew]

New track:

[sambucol]

New track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

That track is further west than before when the NHC showed it riding the coast of the Yucatan.

[Andrew]

Much much much weaker and faster trough should give the storm more time to get into the BOC or just dissipate over the YP:

[Andrew]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
TO LIMON HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE ON FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[biggerbyte]

This is the scenario that I have been talking about for days. Many thought I was crazy or wishcasting. I was not sure it would unfold, but I knew it was possible. Still, it may not entirely. A lot is still to be watched. The front and trough are still in question, but they are increasingly looking to not be players in this situation.

iWatch continues...