Hurricane Beryl

[Scott747]

18z HAFS-A is about the same. Both are borderline rapidly deepening as they make landfall. It's why you see the pressure continue to drop inland.

[cperk]

Looks like the cold cloud tops are trying to wrap around the coc.

[don]

Yep it looks like Beryl is starting to take off.

[Katdaddy]

Yep Beryl is looking better this evening. An interesting night and morning on the way.

[Scott747]

Hmmm. AF301 made an unexpected 5th pass. Almost looks like a due n fix but not ready to call it a change in heading. NOAA mission has a different fix just to the w.

[bdog38]

Screenshot_7-7-2024_183354_cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov.jpeg

It looks like things are about to get interesting. Beryl looks like it could strength to a 3. Did we sleep on Beryl?

[tireman4]

Right now, and Andrew, Srain, and McHeer can correct me on this, the factors for intensification are there ( High SSTs, low shear..5 kts and high CAPE, 4000). Right now the NHC has it at 85 mph and that seems right to me. Could she hit 90 to 95, it is possible. I think over that might be a stretch. Just my two cents

[AtascocitaWX]

Too much bickering over in 2k.

[Texashawk]

Up to 70 MPH.

[don]

Beryl is almost a Hurricane again now at 70mph.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus
Christi Bay, has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been
discontinued.

[tireman4]

Too much bickering over in 2k.

Jason is one of the admins over there. You can DM him

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, last I saw Reed Timmer was heading to Surfside to be on the dirty side, but called Sargent 'Ground Zero'. 'Hurricane Josh' Morgerman driving into Matagorda an hour ago.

Yeah, Timmer's going to be in the eastern eyewall. I hope Dominator 3 can float!

[tireman4]

Beryl

[DoctorMu]

Hi, how far inland will Beryl go before she starts tracking to the north east?

Thank you.

If I had to guess: Follow Hwy 60 north through Bay City. Then jump to just east of Hempstead to Navasota on Hwy 6, crossing Hwy 1*5, and then NNE on Hwy 90 to just east of Madisonville and NE from there.

Most of the heavier impacts will be east of that track, but there is always wrap around.

Thank you. I'm in Magnolia, so not sure now if we are going to get the eye wall or eye. Goodness!!!

The eye is going to be pretty wide now. Magnolia is going to feel some wrath from a weakening eye wall or remnant. 60 mph gusts or more are possible for MoCo.

[jasons2k]

Too much bickering over in 2k.

Jason is one of the admins over there. You can DM him

Sorry been away most of the day but I think it’s handled.
I hate it when this happens…

[DoctorMu]

Beryl

The eye is closed even more now.

[tireman4]

Beryl Recon

[jabcwb2]

If I had to guess: Follow Hwy 60 north through Bay City. Then jump to just east of Hempstead to Navasota on Hwy 6, crossing Hwy 1*5, and then NNE on Hwy 90 to just east of Madisonville and NE from there.

Most of the heavier impacts will be east of that track, but there is always wrap around.

Thank you. I'm in Magnolia, so not sure now if we are going to get the eye wall or eye. Goodness!!!

The eye is going to be pretty wide now. Magnolia is going to feel some wrath from a weakening eye wall or remnant. 60 mph gusts or more are possible for MoCo.

I am forever grateful for this site. Thank you!

[DoctorMu]

Beryl's Eye is closing.

[DoctorMu]

Reed is positioned for the NE quadrant. He's thinking about going north through. There is a limited escape route on the dirt road to follow the storm in Sergeant. The surge would put them underwater, unless they find a friendly house on stilts.

If this were Florida the area would be built up and the natural landscape destroyed.