Hurricane Beryl

[don]

I'm watching Beryl (and possibly future Chris) closely as models are showing a trough moving into the plains and creating a weakness over Texas. If that trough ends up being stronger than indicated at this time and erodes that ridge more,watch out Texas...


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I was concerned about this scenario playing out last week.Models really have a tendency to underestimate these troughs in the medium to long range.

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[txbear]

Scott747 - Saw that Josh is in Port Lavaca. Interesting times the next 24 hours.

He must have announced it on twitter I'm guessing?

I generally have to keep it a 'secret' till the final decision where to set up and he gets in place. Haha.

Haha I get that completely. Yes, announced on twitter. Seems like y’all are in a good spot

[don]

18Z EURO wind gust. Wouldn't be surprised to see more areas get upgraded to inland tropical storm/hurricane warnings.

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[Stratton20]

2nd recon center fix has an even sharper NW movement

[DoctorMu]

A strengthening Cat 2 at landfall, IMO is worse than a weakening Cat 3

It depends. Katrina was a weakening 3 --> 2 at LANDfall. But she had been a 5 and was massive. Katrina snowplowed huge volumes of the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain and East Bernard Parish.

Anyway, a strengthening Beryl could be muchos trouble.

[Rip76]

2nd recon center fix has an even sharper NW movement

Crazy. My eyes are seeing WNW. I need to back away for a bit.

[DoctorMu]

18Z EURO wind gust. Wouldn't be surprised to see more areas get upgraded to inland tropical storm/hurricane warnings.


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We're definitely going to batten down the hatches tomorrow!

[Andrew]

2nd recon center fix has an even sharper NW movement

Crazy. My eyes are seeing WNW. I need to back away for a bit.

Shear is still causing issues and creating these "fake" movements.

[Stormlover2020]

Hrr shift north

[srainhoutx]

Quite an interesting convo over on S2k now about recon data. Tonight will be interesting

Chatter regarding the Vortex message.
It is legit

< Return to Reconnaissance DecoderCurrent Recon | Archive | Help
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 1:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Beryl
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.57N 93.74W (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (406 km) to the ESE (112°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,060m (10,039ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 32kts (From the ENE at 37mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39kts (44.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix at 0:40:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 48kts (From the SSE at 55.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix at 0:24:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 41kts (47.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 0:59:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 329° at 37kts (From the NNW at 42.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 1:06:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NW (308°) from the flight level center at 23:24:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[don]

0Z HRRR shows the eyewall moving through parts of Houston.(Category 1)

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[dp6]

"I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?" season is early this year.

[Cpv17]

"I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?" season is early this year.

That’s not necessary.

[jasons2k]

"I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?" season is early this year.

That’s not necessary.

Old Rita joke.

HRRR track could definitely play out.

[Rip76]

Maybe another Nicholas here?

[Ptarmigan]

A strengthening Cat 2 at landfall, IMO is worse than a weakening Cat 3

It depends. Katrina was a weakening 3 --> 2 at LANDfall. But she had been a 5 and was massive. Katrina snowplowed huge volumes of the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain and East Bernard Parish.

Anyway, a strengthening Beryl could be muchos trouble.

A strengthening hurricane is always trouble. A weakening, but expanding hurricane is also trouble.

If I recall, when Katrina made landfall on Mississippi, it looked like it was trying to intensify again. The first landfall was 920 millibars and 125 mph winds (initially it was 140 to 150 mph). The second landfall was 927 millibars and 120 mph winds (initially it was 125 mph).

Ike was intensifying before it made landfall with 950 millibars and 110 mph winds. I suspect Ike could of been a strong Category 3 before landfall if it spent more time over the Gulf of Mexico. If it did not traverse over Cuba, Ike probably would of been a Category 4.

[don]

Inland Tropical storm warnings just issued for Harris ,Ft bend,Waller,Chambers county(counties i didn't mention already had tropical storm warnings since this afternoon)

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Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 34
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL022024
952 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

TXZ213-071100-
/O.EXA.KHGX.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Harris-
952 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Houston
- Kingwood
- Spring

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

[Stormlover2020]

Watch HRR for trends

[ClearLake77]

Where can I see the HRR?

[ajurcat]

Tonight was absolutely beautiful in Port Alto. Literally the calm before the storm.