Hurricane Beryl

[Rip76]

Harvey 48 hours out.

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1809626576201331162

[don]

12Z Tropical models

02L_trakcks_latest.png

[Rip76]

12Z Tropical models




02L_trakcks_latest.png

That's a pretty good cluster.

[Andrew]

For some perspective this is what the most recent GFS believes the current situation is. Obviously, satellite paints a different picture. If convection is maintained that could be a worrying sign.

[don]

Yikes,the Canadian shows a larger core than some of the other models fwiw.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_9.png

[Stormlover2020]

Icon been best model I’m sticking with that one.. now it’s more real time forecasting, watching radar and etc

[Rip76]

Pressure up to 1001.

[Cpv17]

Yikes,the Canadian shows a larger core than some of the other models fwiw.


gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8.pnggem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_9.png

It blows it up a few hours before landfall. The CMC absolutely crushes Matagorda and Wharton counties.

[brazoriatx]

Anyone check on 57 to make sure he is ok?

[Cpv17]

Anyone check on 57 to make sure he is ok?

He and Tireman are good friends so if anyone would know it would be him.

[Stratton20]

HAFS-A comes in east of matagorda bay ~975 mb

[don]

New tropical model runs are coming in. HWRF,HMON,HAFS-A,HAFS-B

hwrf_ref_02L_15.png

hmon_ref_02L_16.png

hafsa_ref_02L_15.png

hafsb_ref_02L_16.png

[sambucol]

I just received an email from Ready Harris. Here is a quote:

The National Hurricane Center has announced that Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast between Sunday evening to Monday morning.


Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast??

[Cpv17]

I just received an email from Ready Harris. Here is a quote:

The National Hurricane Center has announced that Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast between Sunday evening to Monday morning.


Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast??

Middle Texas coast. Probably between Port Aransas to Port O’Connor.

[brazoriatx]

Man the worst thing I hate about these storms is that they make landfall during the night...much rather have them do it during the day

[Pas_Bon]

I just received an email from Ready Harris. Here is a quote:

The National Hurricane Center has announced that Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast between Sunday evening to Monday morning.


Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Southeast Texas coast??

Surprise!

Kidding.

[djmike]

Me personally would not have put SouthEAST Texas. Gut tells me Matagorda to Freeport landfall. Anything east of Freeport I would consider SETX. For now, Mid Texas coast.

[Scott747]

It's ne of the forecast track. Some it is that it's not fully stacked but already at 23.6 with 23.7 being the point at 10 tonight.

No recon for a bit so a little hazy how meaningful this is.

[DoctorMu]

Also seeing on FB too many people blowing this storm off now since the slight shift west in track. I think there are still too many variables in play to brush this off so early. Models as mentioned above are still slightly moving Northward. Some will be in for a rude awakening!

A matagorda bay hit is probably worst case scenario for most of houston. A Galveston hit at this angle would have a sharp gradient and cut off most of the western viewing area imo.

Something between Matagorda Bay and Freeport puts Houston on a robust dirty side. Lake Jackson up to to Katy would feel some fury.

[sambucol]

Has anyone else received the Ready Harris email?

I don’t know how to post the image of the email. However, that is concerning saying the NHC is saying SETX landfall.