Keep an eye on the next run of the HAFS models. They have done will with this psuedo evolution the last 24 hours. If they begin to show more alignment with the center then odds increase up the coast.
GFS still shows the center elongated with it 'wobbling' more wnw to nw early on.
Hurricane Beryl
Beryl still has a ton of low and mid level dry air to deal with. That should help fight her for awhile.
Based on what I’m seeing it looks like conditions will be quite favorable for development the last 6-12 hours before landfall. RI could occur.
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Stormlover2020
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Already looking better
12Z ICON landfall around Sargent, 12Z GFS around Port O' Conner
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Im sorry but ICON has been awesome so far with this system IMO! In my untrained professional opinion, ICON is the one I would watch closely. Sniffed out the northern solutions waaay before the others.
Last edited by djmike on Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
That Port O’Connor landfall would put me in the right front quadrant of the center. I would probably experience the strongest winds I’ve ever experienced if that pans out.
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AtascocitaWX
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Also seeing on FB too many people blowing this storm off now since the slight shift west in track. I think there are still too many variables in play to brush this off so early. Models as mentioned above are still slightly moving Northward. Some will be in for a rude awakening!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
A matagorda bay hit is probably worst case scenario for most of houston. A Galveston hit at this angle would have a sharp gradient and cut off most of the western viewing area imo.djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:35 am Also seeing on FB too many people blowing this storm off now since the slight shift west in track. I think there are still too many variables in play to brush this off so early. Models as mentioned above are still slightly moving Northward. Some will be in for a rude awakening!
Correct.JDsGN wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:38 amA matagorda bay hit is probably worst case scenario for most of houston. A Galveston hit at this angle would have a sharp gradient and cut off most of the western viewing area imo.djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:35 am Also seeing on FB too many people blowing this storm off now since the slight shift west in track. I think there are still too many variables in play to brush this off so early. Models as mentioned above are still slightly moving Northward. Some will be in for a rude awakening!
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tireman4
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I see 995, but that is not the center. I am thinking there will not be any rapid drops in pressure/ or intensity today, but this storm and season might prove me wrong. The playbook ( dry air and 15kt shear) advises against RI, but I am amazed at all that has transpired so far this season ( this is only July)
Lowest is 994 right now?
I'm thinking Cat 2 right into Matagorda.
I'm thinking Cat 2 right into Matagorda.
Levi believes Beryl is restrengthening a little faster than models were showing today.
6Z Euro
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Last edited by don on Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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