srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 4:59 am
Beryl has taken a beating with dry air being entrained and Southly wind shear. The only thing left appears to be a vigorous surface low with no mid level circulation left at all. Beryl likely has another 12 to 24 hours in this hostile environment. I'm not sure that Beryl can fully recover to make a run at Major Hurricane Status again, but I'll be watching.
From everything I've read, it sounds like the expectation was that after passing the Yucatan, Beryl was expected to not intensify for around 24 hours or so, before making a run back up to hurricane status Sunday until landfall.
Is Beryl's condition this morning worse than expected or well within what was forecasted?
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 4:59 am
Beryl has taken a beating with dry air being entrained and Southly wind shear. The only thing left appears to be a vigorous surface low with no mid level circulation left at all. Beryl likely has another 12 to 24 hours in this hostile environment. I'm not sure that Beryl can fully recover to make a run at Major Hurricane Status again, but I'll be watching.
From everything I've read, it sounds like the expectation was that after passing the Yucatan, Beryl was expected to not intensify for around 24 hours or so, before making a run back up to hurricane status Sunday until landfall.
Is Beryl's condition this morning worse than expected or well within what was forecasted?
Both AF C130 and NOAA P3 are about to make their first pass of the center. Let's see what they find during their missions.
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On a side note related to the upper trough. It is definitely coming in stronger than models suggested. A cold front pushed over the mountains here last night. That front wasn't expected until Sunday afternoon. The upper trough influence on Beryl is a big factor on any re-intensification as it makes its final landfall.
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Looks like convection is trying to form near the LLC. A lot of dry air has been ingested into the system and the LLC still remains mostly naked. Conditions for development are forecasted to improve throughout the day but most models indicate significant development won't occur until that last 6-12 hours before landfall. Additionally, models have started to agree landfall just west of Matagorda Bay is likely. While we are still approximately 48hrs from landfall, the trend overnight has been a slight improvement for the Houston metro area.
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What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows.
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:33 am
What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows.
Well we all know how the gulf has a history of storms blowing up pretty quickly. We could still be looking at a serious cane here soon. I see she is moving real slow. More time to get right.
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:33 am
What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows.
Actually developing a CDO over the last two hours. If it's maintained and dry air is filtered out it could be the start of the re-development period.
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Humberto 2007 is a prime example of how fast things can change in 24 hours if conditions are ripe thus we need to watch Beryl closely today and tomorrow:
The intensification rate in Humberto was one of the highest that has ever been observed for an initially weak tropical cyclone. It is estimated that the cyclone strengthened from a 30 mph low into an 90 mph hurricane within 24 hours. This rapid increase in intensity is rare, and only three others storms (Celia/1970, Arlene and Flora/1963) have intensified more in 24 hours from below tropical storm strength. Humberto had a peak wind of 90 mph and a minimun central pressure of 985 mb when it made landfall around 2:00 AM CDT just east of High Island, TX.
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:33 am
What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows.
Well we all know how the gulf has a history of storms blowing up pretty quickly. We could still be looking at a serious cane here soon. I see she is moving real slow. More time to get right.
Exactly. People tend to forget that Katrina was a Cat 1 hurricane/tropical storm exiting the Gulf Coast of Florida. Audrey 1957. There have been a ton of homebrew storms in the BOC/GOM that have ramped up tremendously in short order
If Beryl starts intensifying early and becomes stronger than projected, what does that mean for the track? I've always heard that stronger storms tend to go further east. Would that potentially put the Houston area in the bullseye?
