Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

Yikes.

[don]

Screenshot 2024-07-05 a[...].png

Screensehot 2024-07-05 a[...].png

[Stratton20]

GGS initialized a little too far west of where beryl is actually now,

[tireman4]

Peak flight level winds, 62 kts

[Pas_Bon]

Freeport. Cat 4 135-145 mph. Putting all my chips in

[Cpv17]

Freeport. Low-end Cat 4. Putting all my chips in

The furthest E I want this to come in would be Matagorda. Anything E of there and I’m probably not gonna get jack outta it.

[AtascocitaWX]

Freeport. Cat 4 135-145 mph. Putting all my chips in

A Cat 4?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, I’d prefer Rockport moving N.

Low Cat 2 that slows. Great rainmaker

[captainbarbossa19]

Freeport. Cat 4 135-145 mph. Putting all my chips in

A Cat 4?

This is not out of the range of possibilities. The upper-level conditions for about 36 hours before landfall over the storm are going to be very good for potential RI. Remember, Harvey was a tropical storm when it entered the Gulf and rapidly intensified about 36 hours prior to landfall and hit as a Cat 4. It can happen very quickly in a favorable environment especially in the Gulf.

[Cpv17]

Yeah, I’d prefer Rockport moving N.

Low Cat 2 that slows. Great rainmaker

Yep, same here.

[Scott747]

I mean it looks way r of the forecast track.

Perhaps the HAFS models were right. Maybe not with a relocation but tugged n somewhat off the YP with the deep convection to the n. Doubt it's the ULL to the sw that's slinging it that way.

Eric Webb with a much better explanation of what the HAFS models are showing. I know Andrew touched on it a few days back when we saw the weird movements in the runs.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 8685448540

#Beryl's mid-level vortex is emerging back over the Gulf of Mexico this evening, significantly sooner and further north than most short-term forecasts from yesterday.

It remains to be seen whether #Beryl's surface center is following along in this type of pseudo "downshear reformation" (ish) type process, where the mid-level center is attempting to force an already pre-existing & robust surface vortex to vertically stack/realign downshear (to the north-northeast). However, if this is the case, it will have major track & intensity implications for the Texas coast in a few days.

Also, the amount of influence downshear convection can have on "tugging" the low-level vortex along when the convective heating is asymmetrically distributed in a TC tends to be grossly underestimated by NWP models.

In addition to intensity errors, I suspect this downshear convective "tugging" process explains a good proportion of the change in model forecasts w/ #Beryl over the last few days.

Unfortunately, these eastward/north trends we've seen of late w/ #Beryl may continue for at least another few model cycles (or more).

[Cromagnum]

Freeport. Cat 4 135-145 mph. Putting all my chips in

I hope you are way wrong on strength and location. I'm trying to sell my house not rebuild it first!

[Cpv17]

I’m getting tired of scrolling through social media and seeing people say it looks like Harvey all over again.

[captainbarbossa19]

I’m getting tired of scrolling through social media and seeing people say it looks like Harvey all over again.

It's not Harvey by any means. It's going to be moving through rather fast with the shortwave trough picking it up thankfully. However, intensity could be significant.

[davidiowx]

I’m getting tired of scrolling through social media and seeing people say it looks like Harvey all over again.

Man, I avoid social media like the plague. It’s a cesspool of misinformation and it’s so opinionated (or frankly vomit of the keyboard).

/rant. Mr Dawson on Fox (my old media teacher at Friendswood High lol) just showed the fox model and brings the storm just east of Victoria and onto the NE. It’s a comin’ it seems

[dp6]

Even if it misses Houston, it is still kind of a whammy. For whatever reasons, the first storm sometimes sets a pattern for a season, where that subregion may see one or more significant storms later on. Could be more hits for Texas this year.

[Cpv17]

HMON into Palacios.

[don]

18Z HMON, 18Z HAFS-A, 18Z HAFS-B

hmon_ref_02L_21.png

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[Stormlover2020]

Euro Jamaica beach

[Cpv17]

I’m not liking these east shifts at all.