Texas peeps- pay close attention to #Beryl- trends have been for a rightward (north) track shift and stronger. You have until Sunday to prepare for this hurricane, so use this time wisely… pic.twitter.com/hgd7tjE9Zx
-- Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) July 5, 2024
Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:26 am
GFS has a one-two punch for Beryl with moderate shear expected once it enters the GOM and then plenty of dry air entrainment across the Central Gulf. These two things will need to be monitored for how quickly they can be overcomed. That will ultimately decide how quickly Beryl can intensify. Most models indicate this won't occur until closer to landfall and that is why intensification doesn't really occur until north of 26N. Additionally, once Beryl makes landfall it will quickly begin to wrap dry air in from the north which could lessen the flooding risk some.
Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.
Howfar inland is this supposed to reach if it hits Freeport? Do we need to board up in Magnolia? Will we flood? Or maybe the better question would be how many inches of rain is expected with a system like this each day or per hour?
tireman4 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:03 pm
Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.
Scott747 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:47 am
Don't see it happening but both hurricane models continue to flirt with the idea of reforming Beryl to the N as it exits the YP.
Both of the HAFS models are a mess but the solution isn't entirely far fetched looking at the current structure. Still a long shot, but I dunno.
They both shifted n yet again by a sizable margin n and slower because of trying to resolve the centers.
HAFS-A comes in around Sargent as a strong TS Monday morning.
HAFS-B comes in around Rockport and Port A Monday afternoon.
Euro now up the coast. Implication is for the cat 2-3 hit between CRP and GLS. If so ICON has been best
-- The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) July 5, 2024
Quite the shift with that 12z Euro run. Up through Matagorda Bay. Depending on how compact it is could see sustained hurricane force winds as far as Surfside with strong sustained TS force winds to High Island.
Coastal flooding would be moderate to significant depending on when it deepens.
Scott747 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:46 pm
Quite the shift with that 12z Euro run. Up through Matagorda Bay. Depending on how compact it is could see sustained hurricane force winds as far as Surfside with strong sustained TS force winds to High Island.
Coastal flooding would be moderate to significant depending on when it deepens.
I'm in clute..lol I'll pass on the hurricane force winds
Scott747 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:46 pm
Quite the shift with that 12z Euro run. Up through Matagorda Bay. Depending on how compact it is could see sustained hurricane force winds as far as Surfside with strong sustained TS force winds to High Island.
Coastal flooding would be moderate to significant depending on when it deepens.
I'm in clute..lol I'll pass on the hurricane force winds
If that track were to verify and with that trajectory, I'd expect gusts at hurricane force inland across southern Brazoria county including Lake Jackson/Clute/Angleton and either sustained or very close to in Sargent/Freeport/Surfside.
jabcwb2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:05 pm
Howfar inland is this supposed to reach if it hits Freeport? Do we need to board up in Magnolia? Will we flood? Or maybe the better question would be how many inches of rain is expected with a system like this each day or per hour?
I think you’d be fine without boarding up in Magnolia in that scenario
(@EricBlake12) July 5, 2024
