SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-191930-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...
SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
.NOW...
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST INLAND...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR GALVESTON...
TO NEEDVILLE...WHARTON...AND EDNA. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO 1 AND 1/2 INCHES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
September Weather Discussion
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srainhoutx
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Member: National Weather Association
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weatherguy425
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
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Corpus has been getting slammed all morning!
Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC355-409-192045-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0085.100919T1652Z-100919T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 1135 AM CDT...POLICE REPORTED PORTIONS OF CARBON PLANT ROAD AND
INTERSTATE 37 WAS COVERED WITH WATER. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
FALL IN THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF TOWN...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SAN
PATRICIO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...DRISCOLL...
MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS AND PORTLAND. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...OSO CREEK...PETRONILA CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
-
srainhoutx
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txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
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I wondered about that when I saw it...but hey...Texas weather ya know??djjordan wrote:Don't know about any of you .... but I think Mario's forcast for Sunday is gonna be a bust ..... looking at radar trends and satellite ... I'm thinking Mostly Sunny is not gonna happen especially in the SW portion of the CWA ...... Mostly Cloudy with scattered showers looks like a better bet.
I have 2 friends down there who have both been writing about the flooding on Facebook. Lots of flooding down there.weatherguy425 wrote:Corpus has been getting slammed all morning!
Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC355-409-192045-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0085.100919T1652Z-100919T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 1135 AM CDT...POLICE REPORTED PORTIONS OF CARBON PLANT ROAD AND
INTERSTATE 37 WAS COVERED WITH WATER. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
FALL IN THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF TOWN...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SAN
PATRICIO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...DRISCOLL...
MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS AND PORTLAND. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...OSO CREEK...PETRONILA CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
No rain, no rainbows.
I heard on the television weather that this week is going to be very rainy.
-
TexasMetBlake
- Pro Met
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- Location: Spring/Woodlands
- Contact:
Front still progged to move through by next weekend...
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TO BE BELIEVED...MIN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TO BE BELIEVED...MIN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.
Looking to be a wet commute into work this morning for some people.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Frankly, I think we will see heavy rain again tonight, like we saw last night.
As has been the past few days ....more rain developing in the GOM this morning .... no heavy rainfall around the city like yesterday but scattered showers seem to be a good bet as we head through the day today. Some downpours are possible as this developing rain heads towards us out of the Gulf.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
TexasMetBlake
- Pro Met
- Posts: 839
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
- Location: Spring/Woodlands
- Contact:
Cold front still on schedule for Sunday! Looking for highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 60s heading into next Monday. 850 temps aren't all that cool, so it'll be more dry than cool but I definitely think the change will be noticeable. It appears the gfs is keeping the bulk of the energy north so the front should not have an accompanying squall line as there won't be much forcing to go along with it.
It is nice to see that cool front come. Is there a chance that it might stall over the Gulf of Mexico?
Good Morning Forum peeps .... Hope your Thursday is a good one .... looking like a slim chance of scattered showers today ....best chance seems to be on the east side today. Cool front still progged to come through this weekend with some higher rain chances. Next week is gonna feel awesome so hang on for it.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
TXC039-167-242000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0082.100924T1757Z-100924T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
1257 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR SANTA FE AND DICKINSON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
TXC039-167-242000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0082.100924T1757Z-100924T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
1257 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR SANTA FE AND DICKINSON
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Getting all excited about the front coming through ...... Can't wait for that breath of fresh fall air. 
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Either tuesday or wedensday morning of next week has a decent chance of reaching the upper 50s... If this does occur, it would be the first time since September of 2006 that we have actually fallen below 60 in September.
Forecast models are also showing another reinforcing front about 7 days away, or the end of next week, that would continue the pattern flip to below normal temps and dry weather.
Fall is just a few days away...
Forecast models are also showing another reinforcing front about 7 days away, or the end of next week, that would continue the pattern flip to below normal temps and dry weather.
Fall is just a few days away...
-
srainhoutx
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Almost music to my ears...HGX this morning...
AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE LONG-AWAITED
FIRST MAJOR COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT...BRINGING IT TO
NRN ZONES ABOUT MID-AFTN AND COAST DURING THE EVENING. WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER NAM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LEANED
TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE A DRASTIC
CHANGE: THE COOLEST TEMPS THE AREA HAS SEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS
(SINCE THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY).
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SE TX. THE BOTTOM LINE: A STELLAR PICTURE
PERFECT WEEK OF CLEAR/DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER TEXAS. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING (50S TO
LOWER 60S MOST INLAND AREAS). WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
EQUALLY AS COOL BEHIND A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR THAT SPREADS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN
TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THU/FRI MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME COASTAL INFLUENCES TAKE PLACE.
AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE LONG-AWAITED
FIRST MAJOR COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT...BRINGING IT TO
NRN ZONES ABOUT MID-AFTN AND COAST DURING THE EVENING. WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER NAM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LEANED
TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE A DRASTIC
CHANGE: THE COOLEST TEMPS THE AREA HAS SEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS
(SINCE THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY).
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SE TX. THE BOTTOM LINE: A STELLAR PICTURE
PERFECT WEEK OF CLEAR/DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER TEXAS. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING (50S TO
LOWER 60S MOST INLAND AREAS). WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
EQUALLY AS COOL BEHIND A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR THAT SPREADS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN
TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THU/FRI MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME COASTAL INFLUENCES TAKE PLACE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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weatherguy425
- Pro Met
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Looks like there's going to be a boundary collision in Northern Harris county within the next hour or so, everyone keep a close eye on the radar.
-
srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Saw some lightening toward town tonight. Pre frontal trough to our N may spark a shower or two toward morning. Fall is arriving the Houston. My favorite time of the year! 
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Forecaster 35 for HGX has laid out an interesting and cool week ahead...
DISCUSSION...
SUMMER 2010...YOUR SHIP HAS ARRIVED. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
BIG CHANGES ARE AFOOT. THE LONG-AWAITED FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...DIGGING
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH SERVED AS
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST
OVER SE TX...WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.7 INCHES NORTH TO AROUND 2
INCHES SOUTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS DRYING RAPIDLY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PWS DOWN TO AN INCH OVER NORTH TX. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT... A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH NRN ZONES
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTN...AND THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE...FEEL IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN FOR THE SRN HALF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...THEN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 4KM NMM-WRF
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
COAST MID-LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING CENTRAL...30S COAST
TODAY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS
90 IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND EXIT THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THIS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WITH THE BREEZE AND THE 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE...TOMORROW
MORNING WILL FEEL DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT.
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FANTASTIC. LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
DRY...FALL...CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER SE TX. TWO
REINFORCING FRONTS WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT: ONE LATE TUESDAY AND A BIT STRONGER ONE ON
SATURDAY. THE ECWMF REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
MEXMOS A GOOD COMPROMISE. OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON SUBURBS. WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE AND COASTAL INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND SATURDAY`S FRONT.
35
DISCUSSION...
SUMMER 2010...YOUR SHIP HAS ARRIVED. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
BIG CHANGES ARE AFOOT. THE LONG-AWAITED FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...DIGGING
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH SERVED AS
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST
OVER SE TX...WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.7 INCHES NORTH TO AROUND 2
INCHES SOUTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS DRYING RAPIDLY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PWS DOWN TO AN INCH OVER NORTH TX. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT... A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH NRN ZONES
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTN...AND THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE...FEEL IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN FOR THE SRN HALF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...THEN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 4KM NMM-WRF
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
COAST MID-LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING CENTRAL...30S COAST
TODAY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS
90 IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND EXIT THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THIS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WITH THE BREEZE AND THE 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE...TOMORROW
MORNING WILL FEEL DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT.
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FANTASTIC. LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
DRY...FALL...CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER SE TX. TWO
REINFORCING FRONTS WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT: ONE LATE TUESDAY AND A BIT STRONGER ONE ON
SATURDAY. THE ECWMF REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
MEXMOS A GOOD COMPROMISE. OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON SUBURBS. WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE AND COASTAL INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND SATURDAY`S FRONT.
35
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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