Hurricane Beryl

[brazoriatx]

970 mb as of this morning...if it drops below that per Travis herezog the forecast has gone off the rails and it will push northward..we will see today brings

[AtascocitaWX]

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332


Good thread with info.

[brazoriatx]

Sure is dead up in here

[cperk]

Man i'm already tired of this storm and all the unknowns and this is just the beginning.

[cperk]

Sure is dead up in here

I think the members are tired and just need a break until the next round of model runs.

[Andrew]

Sure is dead up in here

I think the members are tired and just need a break until the next round of model runs.

Also it's a holiday so many people probably slept in/ are busy with family and friends. I suspect as mentioned by cperk activity will pick up once new model runs start to come in.

[Cpv17]

Shear is slightly dropping around Beryl and according to the NHC she’s still moving WNW when she should’ve already been moving W.

[Andrew]

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 82.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 82.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 82.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

[AtascocitaWX]

Yea I thought I would get some updates on Beryl this morning because I will probably be a little intoxicated later today

That cone getting closer to our area.

[Cpv17]

Unless she starts moving W, Beryl is on track to just clip the NE corner of the Yucatan.

[jasons2k]

I think this storm is headed towards Corpus.

[brazoriatx]

Unless she starts moving W, Beryl is on track to just clip the NE corner of the Yucatan.

Wasn't she forecasted to already head west by now?

[tireman4]

I think this storm is headed towards Corpus.

South Texas Storms agrees with you. ( another Houston pro met). It is looking like that or a little north or south

[cperk]

Yea I thought I would get some updates on Beryl this morning because I will probably be a little intoxicated later today

That cone getting closer to our area.

Yeah my thoughts exactly later on this evening i won't know that Beryl even exist.

[cperk]

Unless she starts moving W, Beryl is on track to just clip the NE corner of the Yucatan.

Wasn't she forecasted to already head west by now?

I think so.

[djmike]

Local met in Beaumont caved and said he would not be surprised if we see a landfall from Corpus southward now. Hmmm…

[Stormlover2020]

Corpus looks like a good bet

[Andrew]

Possible clearing of the eye

[jasons2k]

I think this storm is headed towards Corpus.

South Texas Storms agrees with you. ( another Houston pro met). It is looking like that or a little north or south

He is a trusted forecaster. No hype.

The curve/shape of the coast while Beryl is getting pulled by the trough is going to make this tough. I’m concerned about this storm trying to tighten-up as it approaches the coast and starts to hook to the right. I’ve seen this drill before. Not saying that’s the ultimate fate of Beryl but some of the potential elements are coming together.
Always makes me nervous when you have a storm moving into improving environmental conditions and a trough comes along from the NW to ventilate it with another outflow channel.

[brazoriatx]

If she moves in around corpus that obviously puts us on the dirty side of a TS or a cat 1 Hurricane..what impacts would we see here