Hurricane Beryl

[Stratton20]

The GFS is a slow mover in land, definitely not in a hurry to exit the state, will be interesting to see if a trend toward a stronger trough continues

[don]

It's gonna be a close call on whether that trough will pick Beryl up or not.As of now im a little more concerned about inland flooding than a direct hit. With copious tropical moisture moving in and interacting with a stalled frontal boundary. A wet pattern looks to be on the menu regardless of where Beryl ends up.

Screenshot 2024-07-03 a[...].png

[Scott747]

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely

Noticed some suggestion to that. YP will definitely do a number on it. As mentioned earlier our next benchmark is where it enters the YP and the state it's in. The weakness/break in the ridge appears that it's going to be there. How much of one and the strength of Beryl of course is key.

Currently I don't see enough to get it up our way or even the mid texas coast but Corpus and s to the border are still potentially in play. My track with Josh has remained s of Cancun and mid Tamaulipas state for days now. Nothing to change the thinking to much for now but definitely enough to potentially landfall further n.

[DoctorMu]

Look at all the crap on the trailing side. Shear is doing something alright

Mitosis

[DoctorMu]

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

It could ride the coastline from northern MX all the way up to Matagorda Bay for all we know.

That is where I'm leaning.

[DoctorMu]

It's gonna be a close call on whether that trough will pick Beryl up or not.As of now im a little more concerned about inland flooding than a direct hit. With copious tropical moisture moving in and interacting with a stalled frontal boundary. A wet pattern looks to be on the menu regardless of where Beryl ends up.


Screenshot 2024-07-03 a[...].png

Yep. Beryl could very well be an inland severe rain/flooding event.

[Stratton20]

The core of beryl has managed to stay off shore, 18z hurricane models have this going down to a cat 1 in about 24 hours, we will see about that

[Scott747]

Both of the new hurricane models, HAFS-A and HAFS-B, are coming in further n after exiting the YP.

[Scott747]

They are both slower allowing more time to gain lat as they feel any weakness.

[Stratton20]

HMON and HAFS-A have trended from tampico to very close to the texas border now

[Stratton20]

18z EPS significant shift north, most of its members are now seeing more of an influence from the trough and getting pulled north

[Cpv17]

They are both slower allowing more time to gain lat as they feel any weakness.

This right here is a big piece to the puzzle.

[Rip76]

[tireman4]

From Reed Timmer

[Texashawk]

That’s even with a weak Beryl. I thought a weak storm would stay south?

From Reed Timmer

[tireman4]

NHC Track versus reality. Not bad from the NHC

[Rip76]

That's awesome.

[sswinney]

At the moment the NHC forecast cone covers over 500 miles.

[Pas_Bon]

Look at all the crap on the trailing side. Shear is doing something alright

Mitosis

Hahaha. Telomeres. Thanks for that biochem reminder. Triggered. Lol

[Scott747]

Only slight adjustment on the track with the 10 pm advisory.

As expected the upper level synoptic data from yesterday and today has helped with the short and mid range guidance.

Would need to see some further n trends in the 0z guidance to adjust the track.