Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[srainhoutx]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

[Ptarmigan]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Mitch and Wilma were the most intense hurricanes and happened in October. Also, they were devastating.

[srainhoutx]

18Z HWRF brings 95L W to WNW near Central America, and turns NW toward the Yucatan...

[srainhoutx]

Cyclonic flow looks to be coming together this evening. Worrisome that it will be a likely rain maker in Central America as it meanders around the Western Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

One comment and I'm out of here for the night. Let's enjoy the exchange among members and provide good and factual information, as was Dan's practice. We have a great group of very knowledgeable folks from many walks of life. Let's keep that in mind when we agree to disagree.

[kayci]

One comment and I'm out of here for the night. Let's enjoy the exchange among members and provide good and factual information, as was Dan's practice. We have a great group of very knowledgeable folks from many walks of life. Let's keep that in mind when we agree to disagree.

amen

[biggerbyte]

Good night, Steve. Until tomorrow. We all better get lots of sleep. After about three days from now, we might not be getting much.

[desiredwxgd]

95L showing up on the 5-Day. We wait with anticipation.

[ticka1]

95L showing up on the 5-Day. We wait with anticipation.

Looking at these maps - I see 95L - but I do have a question - is the cold front being forecasted?

[Andrew]

GFS:

[Andrew]

Nice trof:

[biggerbyte]

Wow! If that trough digs that deep... Hello Florida. Poor folks in that State. Good for Texas and LA, of which have had enough for awhile. Way too early to guarantee this scenario, of course, but it sure looks to be a trend.

[biggerbyte]

It is still a matter of timing, as well as strength. So many possibilties with this system.

[djjordan]

Code Red this morning @ 60% Chance right now. May be looking at a Depression later today or tomorrow.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[srainhoutx]

Still a very braod disturbance...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

864 
WHXX01 KWBC 220706
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0706 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100922 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100922  0600   100922  1800   100923  0600   100923  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  67.5W   12.9N  70.0W   13.2N  72.6W   13.7N  75.2W
BAMD    12.5N  67.5W   12.6N  69.8W   12.5N  72.2W   12.4N  74.6W
BAMM    12.5N  67.5W   12.8N  69.8W   12.9N  72.1W   13.1N  74.6W
LBAR    12.5N  67.5W   13.0N  70.3W   13.5N  73.4W   14.0N  76.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100924  0600   100925  0600   100926  0600   100927  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  77.6W   14.7N  82.4W   15.9N  86.4W   16.8N  88.4W
BAMD    12.4N  77.0W   12.9N  81.4W   14.7N  85.1W   16.6N  87.6W
BAMM    13.4N  77.1W   14.1N  81.8W   15.5N  86.3W   16.6N  88.8W
LBAR    14.7N  79.9W   16.1N  86.3W   15.7N  86.8W   16.8N  89.1W
SHIP        63KTS          89KTS         106KTS         115KTS
DSHP        63KTS          89KTS          43KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.5N LONCUR =  67.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  64.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  61.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  170NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[srainhoutx]

95L is moving quickly WNW at a low latitiude this morning within the strong easterly flow. Guidance suggests it will slow down in a day or so. The question I have is will it be onshore of Nicaragua/Honduras, or just offshore that the meandering begins?

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this morning:

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED.

[srainhoutx]

06Z HWRF...remains offshore of the Yucatan and moving without a stall...

[Scott747]

HWRF is one of the outliers to the E and the storm/area would need to start lifting WNW/NW immediately to verify. Right now and going by what a track the NHC might show currently, it would move across part of Honduras, back over the water and into the YP with a bearish intensity forecast. With only a small deviation needed in track it would change by a significant margin. Would be some entertaining discos if they have to write any during the next few days.

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 1285166461

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 1285166580