Hurricane Beryl

[jasons2k]

My Beryl text to F&F:

There are really two scenarios. A weaker Beryl heads WNW into Mexico. A stronger Beryl gets stronger and picked-up by a secondary trough in the Midwestern US and this pulls Beryl more NW then NNW into the Texas coast. We don't know yet what's going to happen. A lot depends on how strong Beryl remains after interacting with Jamaica and the Yucatan. Stronger storms tend to ride the right or northern side of the track especially when they interact with troughs.

The NHC's official track is just splitting the difference between the two scenarios. They openly admit this in the 11am discussion. It's still too early to know for certain.

Interestingly, at 11am the cone shifted northward a bit to include Matagorda and for the first time they have Beryl restrengthening as a hurricane again over the gulf.

[tireman4]

https://www.youtube.com/live/-HSV-eFY2BU

[biggerbyte]

Flip, flop. Flip, flop..Once again, today. Trends to the south are no longer reliable. This much back and forth reminds me very much of Ike. I'll say it again. It is going to come down to now casting. You guys probably agree that we can't afford to put a fork in it anymore.

I remember Doc used to say that until a tropical system is dead...

[sambucol]

Just wondering what will cause anyone here to start making preparations for Beryl?

[tireman4]

Just wondering what will cause anyone here to start making preparations for Beryl?

Well, I think your hurricane kits and plans should be up to date. I think that should be a June 1st item to complete every year, tropical systems or not.

[brazoriatx]

Due to my job I can't leave even if I wanted to lol

[tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
1h
10AM UPDATE -

#Beryl maintains category 4 status on approach to #Jamaica this morning with winds sustained at 145mph

The forecast cone continues to trend northward, with parts of coastal SE TX included in the cone

Impacts, regardless of track, could start as early as Sunday

[tireman4]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
Hurricane Beryl is still dominating at 145 mph maximum sustained winds, despite increasing wind shear in the central Caribbean, just southeast of Jamaica this morning! The latest forecast track shows the inner core just missing the south shore of Jamaica, but life threatening conditions could still impact the island! Beryl heads toward the Yucatan as weakening tropical cyclone, but still forecast to make landfall as a hurricane. We are watching Texas for intercept

[Scott747]

Clear shift s with the 12z GFS. Looks like the 6z hurricane models. We're almost past the Jamaica breakpoint and now look at where it crosses the YP. Key will be as it leaves Jamaica behind and turns a little more w for a time, or if it gains some lat.

In the meantime the 12z GFS is beginning to get really bullish on 96l. Conditions begin to look conducive once it gets in the gulf.

[Cromagnum]

Just wondering what will cause anyone here to start making preparations for Beryl?

Kits and plans are up to date, but would actively consider boarding windows if it clips (or misses) the Yucatan and enters the gulf as a Cat 2+

[Tx2005]

Due to my job I can't leave even if I wanted to lol

Same. Prep for me is making sure my family is good to go.

[sambucol]

Just wondering what will cause anyone here to start making preparations for Beryl?

Kits and plans are up to date, but would actively consider boarding windows if it clips (or misses) the Yucatan and enters the gulf as a Cat 2+

Our kits are ready, too. That’s a good way to decide when to put up the boards.

[tireman4]

Tomer Burg
@burgwx
·
18m
Replying to
@burgwx
When & how quickly Beryl enters the Gulf is significant, as the slower it does so, not only is it more likely to turn right as the ridge to its north is eroded, but there would also be more of an opportunity for it to re-intensify & slow down even more before landfall.

[sswinney]

Just wondering what will cause anyone here to start making preparations for Beryl?

Kits and plans are up to date, but would actively consider boarding windows if it clips (or misses) the Yucatan and enters the gulf as a Cat 2+

Our kits are ready, too. That’s a good way to decide when to put up the boards.

Interesting question, when do you decide to board up? I have the metal shutters and have only done it when I thought Laura was coming in 2020. Is there a category? An approach angle? A timeframe? It’s time consuming to do so I want to know others thoughts.

[Scott747]

12z Euro is coming in a tad further n.

[Scott747]

Ends up being a fairly decent shift n on the 12z Euro....

[Cpv17]

12z EPS should be interesting.

[Stratton20]

Eps more south, I think a texas lansfall is starting to become more unlikely now

[Rip76]

Eps more south, I think a texas lansfall is starting to become more unlikely now

Agreed

[brazoriatx]

Yup pretty good agreement now. Cpl more runs and I think we should be pretty confident..NEXT