2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of September 20, 2010 2100z.
ATL-124.405
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-51.0450

We are way head of the East and West Pacific COMBINED. West Pacific is the most active basin and it is not much different from East Pacific. We are more than twice ahead of West Pacific.

[srainhoutx]

ACE as of September 20, 2010 2100z.
ATL-124.405
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-51.0450

We are way head of the East and West Pacific COMBINED. West Pacific is the most active basin and it is not much different from East Pacific. We are more than twice ahead of West Pacific.

To be expected in a La Nina year. The NALT is the favored Basin.

[Ptarmigan]

To be expected in a La Nina year. The NALT is the favored Basin.

Exactly. Also, in a La Nina season, typhoons form closer to land, which means less likely to be intense and have higher ACE.

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of September 21, 2010 0300z.
ATL-124.8275

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of September 21, 2010 2100z.
ATL-126.115

[srainhoutx]

Models are unsure with Lisa and a future Matthew could add to those totals. 200 doesn't sound like an unobtainable point anymore, does it?

[Ptarmigan]

Models are unsure with Lisa and a future Matthew could add to those totals. 200 doesn't sound like an unobtainable point anymore, does it?

I think we could be in the top 10 most active season, especially with ACE. I would not be surprised if we are challenging 1995 and 1933 in terms of numbers and ACE like 2004 and 1926, which had high ACE, but lower number of storms.

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of September 22, 2010 2100z.
ATL-126.595

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of September 23, 2010 2100z.
ATL-127.1225
WPAC-51.865

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of October 13, 2010 1500z.
ATL-140.2975

We are challenging 2008 ACE of 144. I think we could be hyperactive by the time this season is over.

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of October 16, 2010.
ATL-141.95.25
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-65.925

Colin Best Track. Lowers ACE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL042010_Colin.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of October 29, 2010 0300z.
ATL-146.515
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-106.6175

West Pacific has really caught up thanks to Megi. I notice during La Nina, that West Pacific is more active towards the later part of the season. The Atlantic ACE exceeds that of 2008. With 91L and 92L becoming Shary and Tomas, the ACE will likely go into hyperactive threshold. I think we could see Greek letters before the season ends. We just have Virginie and Walter left once Shary and Tomas are named.

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of November 3, 2010 2100z.
ATL-154.08
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-115.8975

The Atlantic is officially hyperactive. Hyperactive has an ACE of 153.

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We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges of activity during 2010. These ranges are consistent with NOAA’s May outlook, and reiterate a high likelihood of a very active season (i.e. hyperactive, defined by ACE > 175% of median), perhaps one of the more active on record.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... cane.shtml

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The 1951-2000 base period is used in the above classifications, where the mean value of the ACE index is (93.2 x 104 kt2), and the median value is (87.5 x 104 kt2).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... tion.shtml

By Median
87.5 * 1.75 = 153.125

By Mean
93.2 * 1.75 = 163.1

NOAA goes by median, so we are at hyperactive.

[Ptarmigan]

ACE as of November 8, 2010.
ATL-159.4725
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-115.8975
NIND-31.7850

Northern Hemisphere ACE To Date-355.795