Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

Beastmode, laughing at the shear...from global windmap. Beryl is just redirecting the easterly winds like a Greek goddess on Olympus.

[cperk]

Just saw Director Brennan on a utube update and toward the end of the video he was not yammering about a Mexico landfall he said the track will depend on Beryl's intensity and where it's at when it enters the gulf.He also mentioned that it's weakening at a slow pace.

[jabcwb2]

Can someone post a continuous loop of Beryl? Perhaps every couple of pages? Thank you in advance!

[DoctorMu]

Beryl appears to have some protective high pressure overhead as protective bubble. The current rector would take Beryl just north of Jamaica (instead of south). The path is expended to bend a little less NW, but don't sleep on Beryl.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Beryl should be a August or September hurricane, not July hurricane.

[sambucol]

Hurricane Beryl should be in August or September, not July.

Definitely. This is getting scary.

[DoctorMu]

Seeing 145 knots in latest reconnaissance. Is this confirmed?

[DoctorMu]

So assuming the ridge moves east...

[sambucol]

So assuming the ridge moves east...

Would that bring it in close to Houston/Galveston if that ridge moves east?

[DoctorMu]

In looking back at the thread, models, and prediction Beryl was initialized far too south (100-200 miles). The built in bias reminds me of the misplaced College Football Playoff polls and their misplaced love affair with Ohio State.

[Rip76]

So assuming the ridge moves east...

Would that bring it in close to Houston/Galveston if that ridge moves east?

I could see Corpus easy.

[DoctorMu]

So assuming the ridge moves east...

Would that bring it in close to Houston/Galveston if that ridge moves east?

Beryl would curve north and sooner. Where it would make landfall because of the acute angle is anyone's guess - from north of Tampico to the Sabine River would be in play. We won't know until after Beryl clears Jamaica.

[Stratton20]

Pressure went from 950 mb down to 946 mb now

[sswinney]

Seeing 145 knots in latest reconnaissance. Is this confirmed?

I see 125 knots which is 145mph in the graphs but the obs data shows readings over 137 knots. For some reason that’s the end of the scale.

[DoctorMu]

Seeing 145 knots in latest reconnaissance. Is this confirmed?

I see 125 knots which is 145mph in the graphs but the obs data shows readings over 137 knots. For some reason that’s the end of the scale.

From about 7:30 pm

386
URNT12 KNHC 030045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/00:00:00Z
B. 16.06 deg N 071.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2662 m
D. 949 mb
E. 160 deg 8 kt
F. Closed
G. C20
H. 134 kt
I. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
J. 093 deg 145 kt
K. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
L. 96 kt
M. 134 deg 8 nm 00:07:00Z
N. 216 deg 110 kt
O. 132 deg 4 nm 00:05:30Z
P. 9 C / 3034 m
Q. 16 C / 3046 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1102A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 145 KT 007 / 13 NM 23:55:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 020 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[sswinney]

Seeing 145 knots in latest reconnaissance. Is this confirmed?

I see 125 knots which is 145mph in the graphs but the obs data shows readings over 137 knots. For some reason that’s the end of the scale.

From about 7:30 pm

386
URNT12 KNHC 030045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/00:00:00Z
B. 16.06 deg N 071.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2662 m
D. 949 mb
E. 160 deg 8 kt
F. Closed
G. C20
H. 134 kt
I. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
J. 093 deg 145 kt
K. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
L. 96 kt
M. 134 deg 8 nm 00:07:00Z
N. 216 deg 110 kt
O. 132 deg 4 nm 00:05:30Z
P. 9 C / 3034 m
Q. 16 C / 3046 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1102A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 145 KT 007 / 13 NM 23:55:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 020 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Yeah I see it now. I guess tropical tidbits is a little behind.

[Cpv17]

Oof HWRF

[Pas_Bon]

In looking back at the thread, models, and prediction Beryl was initialized far too south (100-200 miles). The built in bias reminds me of the misplaced College Football Playoff polls and their misplaced love affair with Ohio State.

Lol

Geaux Tigers.

To keep it on the rails, Beryl is now much stronger than forecast at this point. She is also north of guidance. Eyes peeled, Middle/Upper TX coast…..

[biggerbyte]

Beryl appears to have some protective high pressure overhead as protective bubble. The current rector would take Beryl just north of Jamaica (instead of south). The path is expended to bend a little less NW, but don't sleep on Beryl.

It does, did have the protection you are speaking about. That high is supposed to not move as Beryl continues on westward.

[Rip76]

Looks like a WSW jog there.