Hurricane Beryl
Down to 928 mb
Just curious. Is it possible Beryl is so strong that shear will do little if anything? I can imagine weaker systems get shredded, but with a Cat 5? Just wondering…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Some dry air is infiltrating. Yet at 165 mph and 928 mb, Beryl continues to be stronger than expected, bigger now than expected, and churn a path north of expected.
Larger systems can fend off hostile conditions easier, but smaller systems like Beryl have a harder time doing so. My question though is that it appears the shear is moving W in tandem with Beryl, so I’m not sure how much shear it’ll actually run into?
Beryl is growing in size (and strength) and is looking more like a typical Atlantic Basin hurricane. 57 insisted Beryl would steer south of Jamaica. We'll see.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24
It does appear though that the EWRC that happened yesterday expanded the size of the storm so that should help it fight off the shear somewhat.
Texas is definitely not out of the woods.
At the pace it's climbing i would not bet on Beryl going south of Jamaica.
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tireman4
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Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.
Another slight shift N by the NHC. Aiming for far Northern Mexico now.
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti
from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.
The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant
spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the
strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the
southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable
uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the
forecast period.
The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general
agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly
shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica.
However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a
major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long
the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in
how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the
west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the
spread-out intensity guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.
3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti
from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.
The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant
spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the
strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the
southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable
uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the
forecast period.
The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general
agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly
shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica.
However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a
major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long
the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in
how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the
west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the
spread-out intensity guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.
3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Shear must be forecasted to be really strong in the Gulf this weekend. Hard to believe the NHC doesn’t have it strengthening when it gets into the Gulf.
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Stormlover2020
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We about to see how bad or good the icon model is
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brazoriatx
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Icon into tx/LA border...hmmmm
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tireman4
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- Contact:
From the Eyewall...Hurricane Beryl (160 mph, WNW 22 mph)
Hurricane Beryl somehow managed to continue strengthening last night and achieved category 5 status late in the evening over the eastern Caribbean. It has maintained that status today and has 160 mph maximum sustained winds as it races west northwest across the Caribbean.
The forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 AM AST shows Beryl closing in on Jamaica as a major hurricane tomorrow. (NOAA NHC)
Over the next 36 hours, Beryl will remain on a course that should bring it very, very close to a direct hit on Jamaica. At the least, it will be a close pass, and hurricane conditions are expected there beginning late tonight or tomorrow morning. Preparations for a major hurricane impact should be rushed to completion in Jamaica. Folks in the Cayman Islands will need to watch Beryl closely as well as it passes near or just south of there tomorrow night.
On satellite, Beryl looked great this morning, and while it still looks great, there are at least some signs that shear is beginning to impact Beryl a bit on the west side.
Hurricane Beryl looks the part on satellite this morning as it races west northwest. Some signs of wind shear are evident on the western side of Beryl, which should hopefully indicate Beryl has peaked. Whatever the case, the thought is that Beryl's intensity has peaked, and it should now begin to undergo a steady decline. Beryl is about to plow into 20 or more knots of wind shear.
Beryl is about to encounter 20 kts or more of wind shear as it approaches Jamaica.
Wind shear is complicated with storms of this intensity. Theoretically, it should just start to feel the shear and begin a steady, if not rapid weakening. Modeling says this will be the case. The majority of modeling weakens Beryl to a category 2 or weaker storm by Thursday morning. But in storms of this intensity, shear can be a little funky and find ways to help the storm "ventilate" somewhat. In my opinion, this is not going to be the case with Beryl; it should weaken as forecast, perhaps at a slower rate than what models suggest. However, there is inherent uncertainty here, and that's why we would tell folks in Jamaica to prepare for a serious, major hurricane.
In addition to the wind and surge impacts of a major hurricane, flooding from rainfall is a possibility, if not likelihood as Beryl passes southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Beryl is expected to drop as much as 200 to 300 mm (8-12 inches) of rainfall along and just north of its track.
According to Sam Lillo of DTN weather, who has been posting frequent statistical nuggets on Twitter/X regarding Beryl's unprecedented nature about Beryl's forward speed. Over a 6 hour period, Beryl is the fastest known moving category 5 storm on record. As noted by him and some others, Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Janet in 1955 also had some extreme forward speeds for category 5 storms. Either way, Beryl will end up atop or near the top of many charts once all is said and done for earliest and easternmost and fastest for storms of this intensity.
What comes after Jamaica for Beryl?
The main near term concern is for the folks in Jamaica and the Caymans. Beyond that, the forecast is contingent on a number of factors. Over the last 48 hours, we've seen a slight northward shift in Beryl's forecast track as it comes west.
Beryl's forecast track via the ensemble mean of all models has trended a bit to the north in the last couple days, not by a ton but by enough to be notable. (Tomer Burg)
This has implications for the Yucatan and perhaps the Gulf as well. Why is Beryl trending more north? For one, exploding into a category 5 storm allows it to gain some added latitude. But secondly, the U.S. pattern has changed somewhat. If you look at how the European ensemble's 6 to 10 day forecast has changed in the last 48 hours, the tendency has been for the trough over the Central U.S. to strengthen, thus weakening the ridge of high pressure in the South.
Over the last 2 days, the European ensemble model has weakened the southern ridge and strengthened the Central trough, which has allowed Beryl's risk of coming farther north to increase.
But there's a lot of nuance to this. For one, if Beryl does weaken as expected, this would have only a modest impact on the final track, keeping it south across the Yucatan and into Mexico. If Beryl does stay stronger than forecast or somehow intensifies as it comes west into the Gulf, it would be more apt to "feel" the stronger trough and come north. You can see this on the Euro ensemble where stronger outcomes are mostly skewed north and weaker outcomes are mostly skewed south. There is a bit of a bimodal dispersion of Euro outcomes, with stronger ones mostly northward and weaker ones mostly southward. There's a reason we have been apt to not speculate on what would happen to Beryl as it came west, rather trying to focus on what would impact Beryl. These changes offer a wrinkle. Should you worry on the Texas or Louisiana coasts? No, but you'll want to keep an eye on this. For one, there seems to be a fair bit of support for somewhat hostile upper air conditions in the Gulf when Beryl arrives, so there's no guarantee this will just explode when it gets there.
That said, we're operating in a very odd world right now. Gulf of Mexico water temps have drifted under record levels thankfully, but it's still warmer than normal overall. So I don't want to overpromise anything at this point. The best we can tell people to do is continue watching. If Beryl makes it to the northern Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana coasts, the impacts would probably begin late Saturday night or Sunday. One other quick word: A lot of people will be traveling this weekend to beaches and such. Rip current risk in the Gulf is going to increase later in the weekend as some of the swells from Beryl reach the coast. Rip currents will become an issue on most of the Gulf Coast by later in the holiday weekend.
Please use caution if you'll be on the beach this weekend. Even the best and most experienced swimmers can struggle with rip currents, so it's advised to swim near a lifeguard and follow any warnings or caution notices.
Hurricane Beryl somehow managed to continue strengthening last night and achieved category 5 status late in the evening over the eastern Caribbean. It has maintained that status today and has 160 mph maximum sustained winds as it races west northwest across the Caribbean.
The forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 AM AST shows Beryl closing in on Jamaica as a major hurricane tomorrow. (NOAA NHC)
Over the next 36 hours, Beryl will remain on a course that should bring it very, very close to a direct hit on Jamaica. At the least, it will be a close pass, and hurricane conditions are expected there beginning late tonight or tomorrow morning. Preparations for a major hurricane impact should be rushed to completion in Jamaica. Folks in the Cayman Islands will need to watch Beryl closely as well as it passes near or just south of there tomorrow night.
On satellite, Beryl looked great this morning, and while it still looks great, there are at least some signs that shear is beginning to impact Beryl a bit on the west side.
Hurricane Beryl looks the part on satellite this morning as it races west northwest. Some signs of wind shear are evident on the western side of Beryl, which should hopefully indicate Beryl has peaked. Whatever the case, the thought is that Beryl's intensity has peaked, and it should now begin to undergo a steady decline. Beryl is about to plow into 20 or more knots of wind shear.
Beryl is about to encounter 20 kts or more of wind shear as it approaches Jamaica.
Wind shear is complicated with storms of this intensity. Theoretically, it should just start to feel the shear and begin a steady, if not rapid weakening. Modeling says this will be the case. The majority of modeling weakens Beryl to a category 2 or weaker storm by Thursday morning. But in storms of this intensity, shear can be a little funky and find ways to help the storm "ventilate" somewhat. In my opinion, this is not going to be the case with Beryl; it should weaken as forecast, perhaps at a slower rate than what models suggest. However, there is inherent uncertainty here, and that's why we would tell folks in Jamaica to prepare for a serious, major hurricane.
In addition to the wind and surge impacts of a major hurricane, flooding from rainfall is a possibility, if not likelihood as Beryl passes southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Beryl is expected to drop as much as 200 to 300 mm (8-12 inches) of rainfall along and just north of its track.
According to Sam Lillo of DTN weather, who has been posting frequent statistical nuggets on Twitter/X regarding Beryl's unprecedented nature about Beryl's forward speed. Over a 6 hour period, Beryl is the fastest known moving category 5 storm on record. As noted by him and some others, Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Janet in 1955 also had some extreme forward speeds for category 5 storms. Either way, Beryl will end up atop or near the top of many charts once all is said and done for earliest and easternmost and fastest for storms of this intensity.
What comes after Jamaica for Beryl?
The main near term concern is for the folks in Jamaica and the Caymans. Beyond that, the forecast is contingent on a number of factors. Over the last 48 hours, we've seen a slight northward shift in Beryl's forecast track as it comes west.
Beryl's forecast track via the ensemble mean of all models has trended a bit to the north in the last couple days, not by a ton but by enough to be notable. (Tomer Burg)
This has implications for the Yucatan and perhaps the Gulf as well. Why is Beryl trending more north? For one, exploding into a category 5 storm allows it to gain some added latitude. But secondly, the U.S. pattern has changed somewhat. If you look at how the European ensemble's 6 to 10 day forecast has changed in the last 48 hours, the tendency has been for the trough over the Central U.S. to strengthen, thus weakening the ridge of high pressure in the South.
Over the last 2 days, the European ensemble model has weakened the southern ridge and strengthened the Central trough, which has allowed Beryl's risk of coming farther north to increase.
But there's a lot of nuance to this. For one, if Beryl does weaken as expected, this would have only a modest impact on the final track, keeping it south across the Yucatan and into Mexico. If Beryl does stay stronger than forecast or somehow intensifies as it comes west into the Gulf, it would be more apt to "feel" the stronger trough and come north. You can see this on the Euro ensemble where stronger outcomes are mostly skewed north and weaker outcomes are mostly skewed south. There is a bit of a bimodal dispersion of Euro outcomes, with stronger ones mostly northward and weaker ones mostly southward. There's a reason we have been apt to not speculate on what would happen to Beryl as it came west, rather trying to focus on what would impact Beryl. These changes offer a wrinkle. Should you worry on the Texas or Louisiana coasts? No, but you'll want to keep an eye on this. For one, there seems to be a fair bit of support for somewhat hostile upper air conditions in the Gulf when Beryl arrives, so there's no guarantee this will just explode when it gets there.
That said, we're operating in a very odd world right now. Gulf of Mexico water temps have drifted under record levels thankfully, but it's still warmer than normal overall. So I don't want to overpromise anything at this point. The best we can tell people to do is continue watching. If Beryl makes it to the northern Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana coasts, the impacts would probably begin late Saturday night or Sunday. One other quick word: A lot of people will be traveling this weekend to beaches and such. Rip current risk in the Gulf is going to increase later in the weekend as some of the swells from Beryl reach the coast. Rip currents will become an issue on most of the Gulf Coast by later in the holiday weekend.
Please use caution if you'll be on the beach this weekend. Even the best and most experienced swimmers can struggle with rip currents, so it's advised to swim near a lifeguard and follow any warnings or caution notices.
I’m honestly beginning to feel like Central Mexico is no longer an option. Looks like Northern MX to Central LA to me.
Hispaniola may see more effects from outer bands than predicted. Jamaica looks like a direct hit on the real-time path. She's running into some shear. We'll see.