Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

[biggerbyte]

KHOU weather at 10 wrote this off as nothing once it enters the gulf.
No mention of a turn. still heading for a landfall well south of Houston.

This is in total contrast to everything else we are hearing from other folks tonight. So, did we buy a ticket for the hype train again, or is KHOU weather missing something?

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte if they said its going to make landfall south of well south of houston, id say that’s quite irresponsible of them, its not a hype train, the threat is real to texas, not a guarantee by any means but it would be foolish for any news station to just claim its going to make landfall somewhere far from a specific area

[Stratton20]

HMON- Cat 1 near tex border
HWRF- Strong Cat 2 approaching lower texas coast
Navgem- Strong cat 2 approaching galveston

[sambucol]

HMON- Cat 1 near tex border
HWRF- Strong Cat 2 approaching lower texas coast
Navgem- Strong cat 2 approaching galveston

Texas will get this so it seems.

[Stratton20]

[Cpv17]

You beat me to it. I was just about to post this lol

[869MB]

I remember some people were questioning the NHC, saying they were too aggressive with respect to their intensity forecast for Hurricane Beryl in their 1st advisory. Yet here we are with yet another overachieving hurricane intensifying much stronger than initially forecast. I really hope we don’t experience anything like this with a storm approaching the US Coastline this season.

IMG_2056.png

[biggerbyte]

biggerbyte if they said its going to make landfall south of well south of houston, id say that’s quite irresponsible of them, its not a hype train, the threat is real to texas, not a guarantee by any means but it would be foolish for any news station to just claim its going to make landfall somewhere far from a specific area

I agree. Chief meteorologist not up to date. I don't get it.

Anyway....moving on

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow,
and a prominent outer band. Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about
500 m. This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated
290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next
few days. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid. There is
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain. Model guidance
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears
the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
on Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 66.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

[Scott747]

Quick morning update -

As expected the NHC continues with the slight nudges to the n on the overall track. Looking at the early 6z runs the 10 am update will likely continue the trend. As of now the HAFS-A looks like all the models combined into one. Sheer and land interaction with Jamaica disrupts Beryl before it crosses the YP. As it emerges into the Gulf it slowly reorganizes as it heads wnw and eventually nw to nnw and is just off the Mexico/Texas border with a heading in the general direction of the lower and mid Texas coast.

As noted in the latest NHC disco there is considerable spread in the guidance after it moves across the YP with anywhere from Tampico to Matagorda Bay seemingly the favored area for an eventual landfall. Of course this is certainly subject to change....

[Pas_Bon]

KHOU weather at 10 wrote this off as nothing once it enters the gulf.
No mention of a turn. still heading for a landfall well south of Houston.

This is in total contrast to everything else we are hearing from other folks tonight. So, did we buy a ticket for the hype train again, or is KHOU weather missing something?

I also remember Carl Arredondo of WWL-TV in NOLA writing Katrina off the Thursday night before the epic shift from Pensacola to the Pearl River when I lived in New Orleans.
Broadcast TV mets are generally slower to change their message and most tend to follow the official forecast.
I've seen situations where writing it off has backfired and I've seen them in scenarios where they've been safe. The trouble is that a lot of people who are underinformed use their message as a guide.
Travis Herzog of ABC in Houston has been much more "bullish" about us possibly being affected.

It is still too early. Models don't mean crap past a few days right now....Hell, most are not even accurate about initialization.

It is still too early. Chances higher today than yesterday.

[Pas_Bon]

Well, I've just prevented Galveston from getting any effects. You're welcome. Took me 5 minutes.

[Andrew]

Let's keep the conversation on the subject of Beryl. Today will likely be a big day to determine the impacts of shear on the storm and hopefully a better consensus with models.

[Pas_Bon]

I remember some people were questioning the NHC, saying they were too aggressive with respect to their intensity forecast for Hurricane Beryl in their 1st advisory. Yet here we are with yet another overachieving hurricane intensifying much stronger than initially forecast. I really hope we don’t experience anything like this with a storm approaching the US Coastline this season.


IMG_2056.png

That eye is literally a perfect circle.... Surreal

[tireman4]

Levi Cowan

[tireman4]

Look at the shear it will encounter before it comes close to the Yucatan..

[tireman4]

Shear Forecast

[Pas_Bon]

Look at the shear it will encounter before it comes close to the Yucatan..

And if this shear map even holds, look at how much room she has after the high shear environment to reconstitute herself in more favorable shear, once again, before the Yucatan .....
We all know she doesn't need much time to get ready.

[tireman4]

Look at the shear it will encounter before it comes close to the Yucatan..

And if this shear map even holds, look at how much room she has after the high shear environment to reconstitute herself in more favorable shear, once again, before the Yucatan .....
We all know she doesn't need much time to get ready.

Yeah but the question (and Srain posed it when we last spoke) is what will be left of her after the shredding? How much will be left of her to pick up the pieces? That is the 64K question.