Hurricane Beryl
They’re saying conditions won’t be very favorable for further development when it gets into the Gulf/BOC.
Looks like the ICON makes landfall around Houma, LA. Quite the shift from the 12z run that ended up in Northern Mexico. The 18z run probably would have ended up much closer to SE Texas if it ran past 120 hrs (0z run has Beryl NE of where it was at 120 hours at 18z).
I'm at a loss for words. Unless the dropsonde reading was contaminated Beryl is still strengthening. Winds could be getting close to 170 mph.
Looks like the pressure is still dropping…..
Beryl is the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane.
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807970287415156782
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807970287415156782
Shoot the middle.Tx2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:28 pm Looks like the ICON makes landfall around Houma, LA. Quite the shift from the 12z run that ended up in Northern Mexico. The 18z run probably would have ended up much closer to SE Texas if it ran past 120 hrs (0z run has Beryl NE of where it was at 120 hours at 18z).
I think we should a better idea where it goes later this week.
I don’t think we can for sure say that LA is out of the woods. JMO and I’m sticking to it for now. I wouldn’t even rule out a NNE movement at some point in the Gulf. It’s all going to come down to how fast is Beryl moving, how fast the HP moves out, how fast/strong that trough will be, and how strong Beryl will be. Impossible to know right now.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stratton20
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That CMC run is a true head scratcher
Last edited by Stratton20 on Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0z GFS is still having issues with strength but it tracks to the wnw as it leaves the YP and eventually tracks nw to nnw towards the lower/mid texas coast.
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AtascocitaWX
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Curious.
If winds are sustained at 160mph. What are the wind gust measuring at?
If winds are sustained at 160mph. What are the wind gust measuring at?
195mph.AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:18 pm Curious.
If winds are sustained at 160mph. What are the wind gust measuring at?
Big shift N into TX on the UKIE.
That GFS run looks like a complete nightmare rain-wise.
0z Ukie indeed shifts n. Looks very similar to the GFS with a nw to nnw heading into the mid texas coast.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20
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With the big N-NW jump on the EPS guidance, it will be interesting to see if the OP Euro eventually caves to a more N-NW track
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biggerbyte
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Oh the wicked situation we are all in.. This is a very hard pill to swallow. After days of talk about strong high pressure and Mexico, we find ourselves seeing this transpire to places absolutely no one saw coming. Everyone along the gulf coast should pay close attention. To think the northern gulf coast felt completely safe.
Beryl is still strengthening and growing. It is a monster. I pity anyone under its current profile.
Beryl is still strengthening and growing. It is a monster. I pity anyone under its current profile.
Beryl now has 165mph sustained winds with a pressure of 935mb.