Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[ticka1]

Fun days ahead...not because this system will have to go somewhere - unforunately I don't see out seas written on this one. Everyone along the GOM coast line should be prepared and stay tuned.

My question - what if this develops faster then the models are forecasting? Element of surprise?

[biggerbyte]

Maybe there should be some clarification about 'nail biting.'

Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.

Which is why I try to carefully choose my wording around here.

Well as you know folks can become quite confused on how to interpret how we all view any long range threats especially when certain posters across the boards try and turn every storm into a IMBY threat.

At this point there is no indication that 95l poses a threat to SE Texas.

There is no indication that it poses a threat to anyone in particular. Absolutely everything is long range speculation. Landfall is up
for grabs. As a matter of fact. This system could miss the trough and move west into CA. Talk about deception... Lol

[biggerbyte]

Dwayne, no one is going to ban anyone. Got it. Absolutely no need for this at all. My goodness, we are talking about something 10 days away. We all are entitled to our own opinions. This is a weather message board, not high drama or brain surgery. Let's not start this again for the umpteenth time. It has become very old and so unnecessary. Back on Topic.

Yes, it is old. Talk to your buddy Scott about that one. I'm going to defend myself. Things are always fine until he starts in with his
confrontational language. I will discuss weather with him, but I will not tolerate his constant accusations. KHOU is just a phone call away. Make it go away, Steve.

[Andrew]

Maybe there should be some clarification about 'nail biting.'

Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.

Which is why I try to carefully choose my wording around here.

Well as you know folks can become quite confused on how to interpret how we all view any long range threats especially when certain posters across the boards try and turn every storm into a IMBY threat.

At this point there is no indication that 95l poses a threat to SE Texas.

There is no indication that it poses a threat to anyone in particular. Absolutely everything is long range speculation. Landfall is up
for grabs. As a matter of fact. This system could miss the trough and move west into CA. Talk about deception... Lol[/quote]


One thing that has been mentioned though about this system is how hard it is to really get a good idea of where it is going to go. This track is going to probably have low confidence due to the many variables ahead. We all know how many times cut off lows can cause havoc for models and really mess them up. At this point being ten days out, no one needs to freak out but just keep a close eye on it as someone from the west gulf to the islands and to the east coast could feel the effects of 95L in the coming days.

Dwayne, no one is going to ban anyone. Got it. Absolutely no need for this at all. My goodness, we are talking about something 10 days away. We all are entitled to our own opinions. This is a weather message board, not high drama or brain surgery. Let's not start this again for the umpteenth time. It has become very old and so unnecessary. Back on Topic.

Yes, it is old. Talk to your buddy Scott about that one. I'm going to defend myself. Things are always fine until he starts in with his
confrontational language. I will discuss weather with him, but I will not tolerate his constant accusations. KHOU is just a phone call away. Make it go away, Steve.

If anyone has a problem please pm me or srain about it and don't fight on here. This is a board to talk about weather and fighting only clogs up the board. So like I said if you still have any problems feel free to PM one of us and we can talk about it there.

[srainhoutx]

Fun days ahead...not because this system will have to go somewhere - unforunately I don't see out seas written on this one. Everyone along the GOM coast line should be prepared and stay tuned.

My question - what if this develops faster then the models are forecasting? Element of surprise?

What I am finding difficult to understand is the fast nature the models develop this when it appears that we have a disturbance along a monsoonal trough. I agree ticka1, interesting days ahead.

[Scott747]

Good call, redneck. Excellent observation. If I were to guess based on how thing look today, I'd guess ne Texas coast, to nw LA. Folks in LA to especially watch this system. Now, what was that about no one listening???

Keeping it strictly weather related and serious.

Does this not imply that you think the biggest landfall threat is to the 'ne Texas coast' (upper Texas coast) to 'nw LA' (Western Louisiana) as it stands now?

Nothing confrontational and just asking a question based on your post.

[redneckweather]

Yes he did say that Scott and he said it was just a guess with no scientific backing. Big deal, move on, so be it. Whooptie do da day.


Interesting Euro run but I still believe the east coast troughiness (love that word) will weaken in future model runs as the days push forward.

[Andrew]

Yes he did say that Scott and he said it was just a guess with no scientific backing. Big deal, move on, so be it. Whooptie do da day.


Interesting Euro run but I still believe the east coast troughiness (love that word) will weaken in future model runs as the days push forward.

Takes 10 days to get into the middle of the gulf! That is a lot of stalling or it would have to move about 5mph.

[Andrew]

Yes he did say that Scott and he said it was just a guess with no scientific backing. Big deal, move on, so be it. Whooptie do da day.


Interesting Euro run but I still believe the east coast troughiness (love that word) will weaken in future model runs as the days push forward.

Euro takes 10 days to get into the middle of the gulf! That is a lot of stalling or it would have to move about 5mph.

[Scott747]

Keep in mind this is from yesterday so the model ideas are a bit outdated. This continuing idea of the monsoon flareup/EPAC disturbance does make the evolution of 95l even more complicated as if it isn't already.

Exteneded outlook from PREDICT -

PGI46L: In the extended range, the general trend of the models
is to develop or strengthen PGI46L, but complicated by
interaction with a possible disturbance moving out of the SW
Caribbean, discussed below. The 0000 UTC 20 September ECMWF
model only has a weak OW maximum tracking into a W Caribbean and
doesn’t have a well defined pouch after 72 hours (image 9)
However, the 0000 UTC 20 September ECMWF ensemble and 1200 UTC
20 September deterministic run of the ECMWF are much more robust
in developing this system (not shown). The GFS continues to be
very robust with PGI46L showing a vertically coherent and
strengthening system tracking through the Caribbean to Nicaragua
and Honduras (image 9). The 0000 UTC 20 September UKMET also
strengthens the storm in the extended, while the 0000 UTC 20
September NOGAPS does not (not shown). However, the 1200 UTC 20
September NOGAPS appears to have a solution very close to the
0000 UTC 20 September GFS (not shown). In all the models, the
surrounding environment remains moist, with total precipitable
water values rising slightly through the extended period in the
GFS. Shear remains quite low through the period, and the ocean
heat content is climatologically high. Therefore, it appears
that thermodynamic conditions should be quite favorable for
development or strengthening as this system treks through the
central and western Caribbean.

And the thoughts about the other potential area -

Other Features of Note: As in previous days, the ECMWF ensembles
and Ryan Torn’s mesoscale ensemble continue to indicate the
potential for pouch and TC genesis across the southwestern
Caribbean after F072 in association with a broad monsoonal-like
trough feature extending from the eastern Pacific into the
western Caribbean. Unlike in previous days, however, the NCEP
ensembles and operational GFS now support the potential for this
development as well. How this feature evolves, particularly in
terms of any potential interaction with or influence on or from
PGI46L, will be closely monitored over the next several days as
flight operations into PGI46L continue.

[srainhoutx]

The models are becoming so clear now regarding the Upper Air Pattern...lol...

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks...

[Andrew]

The models are becoming so clear now regarding the Upper Air Pattern...lol...

That is a monster cut off low the GFS is painting.

[sambucol]

The models are becoming so clear now regarding the Upper Air Pattern...lol...

That is a monster cut off low the GFS is painting.

How will this cut off low affect the storm's track?

[Andrew]

The models are becoming so clear now regarding the Upper Air Pattern...lol...

That is a monster cut off low the GFS is painting.

How will this cut off low affect the storm's track?

Well the gfs has it picking up 95L and sending int NE into Florida but others are saying that it will only turn it north. It really depends as they are hard to track and hard to know how it will influence 95L.

[Scott747]

There is that feature in the SW Caribbean that keeps popping up as either trying to spin up its own independent low or enhancing 95l.

[wxman57]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

[djjordan]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Man if this pulled a Keith type scenario ..... even if it went across the Yucatan into the Gulf and into Mexico .....(Like so many storms have done this season) ...We'd still have a decent shot at some flooding rains depending on the way it set up. Also with Keith's erratic tracking ..... that type of scenario would give forecasters and us here on the forum fits and more grey hairs.

[Andrew]

One thing that many people need to also realize is the time-frame we are looking at. We are looking at a 300h time-frame!!! Many people I believe are looking at the proximity to the gulf and are thinking that the models should be pretty accurate at this point. We may have a "consensus" at this point but how much of a consensus is it at 300h? I don't think it is going to be much of a reliable one.

18z gfs:

[Scott747]

One thing that many people need to also realize is the time-frame we are looking at. We are looking at a 300h time-frame!!! Many people I believe are looking at the proximity to the gulf and are thinking that the models should be pretty accurate at this point. We may have a "consensus" at this point but how much of a consensus is it at 300h? I don't think it is going to be much of a reliable one.

I was telling my chase partner the same thing earlier when we talked on the phone about a possible YP hit. I don't think people are realizing how long some of the modeling is showing this stall which begins to add to the lower confidence for any of the longer term tracks.