Beryl has in its sights the entire Western Gulf coast from the LaTx border to south of Tampico.
https://youtu.be/RfUvHCypGs8?si=Y0O534n3H84KefPf
Hurricane Beryl
https://youtu.be/RfUvHCypGs8?si=Y0O534n3H84KefPf
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Quiet lurker for many years, way back when this was the KHOU forum. WXMAN57 is all that when it comes to these forecast. I dont buy water until he says its time to buy water
Beryl is jogging more NW, and appears to be growing:
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:15 pmBeryl has in its sights the entire Western Gulf coast from the LaTx border to south of Tampico.
https://youtu.be/RfUvHCypGs8?si=Y0O534n3H84KefPf
We really need a “like” button here.
It’s a Cat 5 already they just need to call it
Been here for years since Katrina.
Wow, 160mph winds. We have a Category 5 on July 1st. Freaking nuts!
I’m practically speechless. And I’ve seen a lot of crazy stuff the last ~40 years of watching hurricanes.
I also expect WxMan to tell us tomorrow he already made a water run
I also expect WxMan to tell us tomorrow he already made a water run
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Stormlover2020
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Icon looking sane as 18z run ridge weaker
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Stormlover2020
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Icon will be mid tx to la this run
After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned moreScott747 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:08 pm We're likely to see a subtle shift to the n on the track on the 10pm update with a bit more of a pronounced curve on the cone in the gulf.
Upper level synoptic mission around Beryl heads out tomorrow afternoon. Data probably won't make it in the models till 6z Wednesday.
In the meantime the latest recon mission has Beryl at 938 and 155 mph. Probably a cat 5 earlier this afternoon.
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction,
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.
Once again, I am putting very little stock in modeling past 3/4 days. The models have all vastly underestimated Beryl’s strength to date. Strength plays a huge role in where she ends up. Storms this strong don’t simply follow traditional steering mechanisms, as all of us know. Storms this strong - to an extent - make their own rules, but still must abide by the laws of physics.
My concern level for SETX this past weekend was maybe 25%. Yesterday, it dipped to 20%
I’m at 45% now
I’m obviously not a professional met, but we will all know a lot more by Wednesday, as they all say.
My concern level for SETX this past weekend was maybe 25%. Yesterday, it dipped to 20%
I’m at 45% now
I’m obviously not a professional met, but we will all know a lot more by Wednesday, as they all say.
I'm not buying the models knocking this all the way down to cat 1 or TS before it hits the Yucatan while staying over bathwater the entire trip. Yes, sheer is coming but that would be a nearly 100mph drop.
I was just about to post the same. I have very little faith in intensity modeling these days. I’m not buying any of the model solutions this far out.
Last edited by Pas_Bon on Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormlover2020
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Icon central la
0z ICON is going to miss Texas completely. And not via Mexico....