Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

[Texashawk]

Those pressures are pure bosh. How was this initialized?

[Stratton20]

GEFS has more albeit weak members along the Texas coast fwiw

[don]

gefs_2024-07-01-18Z_144_34.234_257.65_12.628_287.002_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

[Scott747]

18z HAFS gets picked up as it crosses the YP and heads WNW/NW. Should end up much further n than the 12z run.

[don]

I expect to see a shift north on the 0Z tropical models.

[Stormlover2020]

Usually around day 5 u start seeing a trend in models let’s see if tonight is that trend.

[Stratton20]

HMON also has shifted north as well, here we go

[Scott747]

We're likely to see a subtle shift to the n on the track on the 10pm update with a bit more of a pronounced curve on the cone in the gulf.

Upper level synoptic mission around Beryl heads out tomorrow afternoon. Data probably won't make it in the models till 6z Wednesday.

In the meantime the latest recon mission has Beryl at 938 and 155 mph. Probably a cat 5 earlier this afternoon.

[biggerbyte]

We are starting to see a shift. I'm anxious to see tomorrow's runs to see if this northward push is the new trend. A lot of folks have talking about this possibility for a few days now. How ironic that when this first started we said either Mexico or Louisiana and points east. I'd like to get 57s take on this to see if he's not buying it.

Wouldn't it be something if instead of south of Houston, it is east instead
Both leave of us high and dry. It was over 100 degrees at my house today.

[brazoriatx]

57 isn't the end all be all for forecasting. Alot of other pro Mets have different opinions on these things and they are just right and wrong as 57 is

[Stormlover2020]

Euro 18z ensembles shift north.. guys 57 is all euro

[biggerbyte]

57 isn't the end all be all for forecasting. Alot of other pro Mets have different opinions on these things and they are just right and wrong as 57 is

True, but... His opinion counts just like the rest of us. Weather is not an exact science. We state our claim and it's either right or wrong. Heck, even the models can't get it right. We all deserve an A for effort.

Now, on to tomorrow. It's still too soon to nail it down and call it a day.

[tireman4]

57 isn't the end all be all for forecasting. Alot of other pro Mets have different opinions on these things and they are just right and wrong as 57 is

For someone who has known 57 personally for 20 years, he is a very good Meteorologist. Has he whiffed, yes and boy have we let him have it. Lol. You are right, he is not the end all be all. There are equally amazing pro Mets on S2k ( Derk Ott being one). I for one, listen to all of them.

[Tx2005]

I think it's always a good idea to keep an open mind and not tie yourself to one person's opinion, especially when it's one that you want to be true (ie. confirmation that SE Texas won't get hit directly). Even the best professional meteorologists make mistakes. On this note, I do wonder if the SCW guys are going to change their tune in their morning update. I have several family and friends who thinks there is no chance Houston will be affected based on their post this morning. I've tried to caution waiting a few more days before writing this storm off, but to no avail right now.

In any case, it's been said over the last few days that it is far too early to know what is going to happen and know if SE Texas will end up in the bullseye or not. There isn't much else we can do but wait, go ahead and make sure you are prepared for the worst, and hope for the best.

[tireman4]

EPS Spaghetti Plots

[captainbarbossa19]

EPS Spaghetti Plots

This is not an encouraging trend. About half of these members are now taking this northwest towards the Texas coast.

[tireman4]

EPS Spaghetti Plots

This is not an encouraging trend. About half of these members are now taking this northwest towards the Texas coast.

Captain!! How have you been? How was school? You are going into your junior year at Mississippi State, right? Yes, right now this does not look good, as a trend, but we still have a ways to go. Just stay vigilant.

[captainbarbossa19]

EPS Spaghetti Plots

This is not an encouraging trend. About half of these members are now taking this northwest towards the Texas coast.

Captain!! How have you been? How was school? You are going into your junior year at Mississippi State, right? Yes, right now this does not look good, as a trend, but we still have a ways to go. Just stay vigilant.

Hi! I am doing well. As it turns out, I am entering my senior year at State! I will be graduating spring 2025. Woohoo!

I hope you and everyone else is doing well too.

[don]

02Le_tracks_latest.png