Hurricane Beryl
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Stratton20
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Well that certainly is very interesting
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Unsurprising. Even if it hits Mexico, it's bringing a ton of energy with it that has to go somewhere.
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Stormlover2020
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Look, for those in SETX either boarding up or writing this off completely.....it is way too early. Models always have an immensely tough time with strength forecasts. The main determining factor here will be strength of Beryl at the proverbial forecasted "crossroads."
Stronger storm -> Poleward
Weaker storm -> Belize/MX
It was too early to predict this past weekend and it's too early today. It'll be too early tomorrow, but we will be running out of time to say that.
Stronger storm -> Poleward
Weaker storm -> Belize/MX
It was too early to predict this past weekend and it's too early today. It'll be too early tomorrow, but we will be running out of time to say that.
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biggerbyte
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I'm not sure anyone is writing it off, guys and gals. We have to pick a camp and go with it. I've mentioned several times we have to wait on a gulf transition to get a better idea. Models are wavering. One day the ridge is too strong. The next day it isn't.
Right now the trend is Mexico, and that is the camp that most belong to, including 57. Beryl will be a Tropical Storm as it enters the gulf. That coupled with the ridge, and the trough, there is plenty to talk about. If it stalls in the gulf it has a chance to restrengthen before maybe heading northward.
However, there is a plume of dust on its heels. We have to look at the big picture and be realistic about it.
Right now the trend is Mexico, and that is the camp that most belong to, including 57. Beryl will be a Tropical Storm as it enters the gulf. That coupled with the ridge, and the trough, there is plenty to talk about. If it stalls in the gulf it has a chance to restrengthen before maybe heading northward.
However, there is a plume of dust on its heels. We have to look at the big picture and be realistic about it.
Hurricane models are still set on central to N Mexico, but it doesn’t mean much at this point in time.
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Stormlover2020
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Icon with a huge curveball
18z ICON with a huge shift. Moving NW at the end of the run towards Matagorda Bay.
The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.
The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.
…annnd back to Mexico!
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Stratton20
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djmike dont just focus on the hurricane models, the ensemvles and some global models dont agree with that
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AtascocitaWX
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- Location: Atascocita,Tx
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Well my guard is up until it hits the Gulf.
This storm has already out performed for a June/July storm so anything is possible IMO.
This storm has already out performed for a June/July storm so anything is possible IMO.
I saw the discussion over the weekend regarding the global models being initialized too weak.
Check out the recent posts on the Beryl models threads on S2K. Several posters are saying to throw out this GFS run over being initialized 20 mb too weak. This is a good example of why many of us assumed a model run was no good based on this given the reaction over there on a regular basis.
Check out the recent posts on the Beryl models threads on S2K. Several posters are saying to throw out this GFS run over being initialized 20 mb too weak. This is a good example of why many of us assumed a model run was no good based on this given the reaction over there on a regular basis.
18z GFS was tracking similar to the ICON off the YP before drifting w. Then it decides to reform off of Brownsville. lol
While the 18z GFS doesn't show an organized system the energy ends up over the lower and mid texas coast...