Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

TBH, NWS HOU is historically and excessively conservative (sometimes until we're in nowcasting).

From Austin/SA:

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The ridge axis will have shifted into the southeastern CONUS by
Tuesday night, resulting in "slightly" cooler afternoons with highs
in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 100-108 range. As the
soil continues to dry out from Spring rains, expect those slightly
higher dewpoints to continue mixing out a bit more each afternoon.
That should keep our heat indices down below heat advisory criteria
for much of the first of week of July.

Our attention turns to the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico as we
approach next weekend into the following week. Hurricane Beryl
is approaching the Windward Islands with significant impacts. Once
the storm enters the Caribbean, it is expected to continue on its
westward journey and encounter increased vertical wind shear in the
central and western Caribbean by mid to late week. Beyond that, it is
unclear if South Central Texas will experience any impacts from this
system. The GFS has been the most consistent global model, bringing
Beryl into south Texas 9 of the last 10 deterministic runs. For now,
we can hope for a greatly weakened storm and perhaps some beneficial
rains, but a lot still has to happen for that to come together. The
best thing we can do is continue watching the trends.

And the Adult in the Room/sensible forecast from Brownsville.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The mid-level ridge remains anchored across the Southeast into
next weekend, before gradually shifting off the East Coast, with
surface high pressure building mid-this week and persisting into
next weekend across much of the northern Gulf. This will generally
lead to a fairly dry and gradually warming start to the long term
period across Deep South Texas, with an increasing chance of
rainfall next weekend and slightly lower temperatures. A few Heat
Indices may approach 110 degrees each afternoon Wednesday through
Friday. An isolated streamer or sea breeze shower or thunderstorm
cant be ruled out each day as well, but the best chance of rain
remains Saturday into Sunday. The NBM POPs are currently 20
percent near the coast on Saturday and 30 percent on Sunday.

All eyes are really on Days 5-7 and beyond, with Hurricane Beryl
potentially lurking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time,
it is still too early to lean one way or another, with a wide
spread in model guidance. General consensus among the experts at
the National Hurricane Center is Beryl will run into some wind
shear and likely downgrade before approaching the Yucatan late
Thursday into Friday. We may not know much more than that until
Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned to credible sources of information
this week like hurricanes.gov.

[djmike]

Notice how NWS Houston worded the impacts from Beryl...

and on the 8th day...

Yep.

Haha I was gonna say the same thing!

[tireman4]

Blake Mathews
@BlakeMathews08
·
1h
#BREAKING: #Beryl has made a direct hit on the island of Carriacou at 11:10am EST. Winds continue to increase, now up to 150 mph. Given the storms extremely small size, the pressure gradient is very steep, which explains the high minimum pressure for a near-category 5 storm.

[cperk]

Blake Mathews
@BlakeMathews08
·
1h
#BREAKING: #Beryl has made a direct hit on the island of Carriacou at 11:10am EST. Winds continue to increase, now up to 150 mph. Given the storms extremely small size, the pressure gradient is very steep, which explains the high minimum pressure for a near-category 5 storm.

I just watched the latest visible and infrared satellite and WOW.

[cperk]

I don't want none of Beryl .

[Stratton20]

Pretty good bet this gets into the southern gulf as a hurricane, nearing cat 5 status, it will be strong enough to fend off the sheat, while only losing some organization gradually, could explode again in the gulf like what The ICON shows

[Stratton20]

Also fwiw despite the euro going into mexico, it actually digs the trough all the way down into the gulf, so that tells me it has a more “ pronounced weakness” on this run

[biggerbyte]

See, I just had to agree with 57 to change the equation. LOL

Mexico central, or Mexico north, even a Tex/Mexico still Mexico. 57 is not wavering.

Outside of that, there are still some variables to talk about. Though the trend remains the same, you all know the importance of paying attention in the world of weather.

Will Beryl stall, then move north catching a ride? Does it then effect Texas, or Louisiana? Dust is pushing along behind Beryl..Will it be a factor? Yada

On a side note. The two systems behind Beryl look to have a more northerly component. Will they survive? Operative words... Dust, TUTT/Shear, and the aftermath of Beryl on the ocean.

[sambucol]

Pretty good bet this gets into the southern gulf as a hurricane, nearing cat 5 status, it will be strong enough to fend off the sheat, while only losing some organization gradually, could explode again in the gulf like what The ICON shows

How will the high affect the track of Beryl once it’s in the GOM?

Does it look like Beryl will be a strong hurricane once it enters the Gulf?

I read over the weekend that if she is a strong storm, the high will interact with her causing her to go more towards the middle to upper Texas coast. Right now it seems to me that she will indeed be a strong enough storm to do that, but I’m not that educated in these type of weather things.

Thanks in advance.

[tireman4]

Hence what the NWS Houston stated...


*NO impacts for SE Texas within the next 7 days* It covers the unknown. There are huge unknowns out there.

[Stratton20]

I will say the 12z EPS is well north of its op run, more of w N-NW track with more members showing texas

[Cpv17]

That HWRF run was crazy.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 no kiddint, thats a big yikes run, and then there is the EPS with many very strong members making a north turn, things are getting interesting to say at the very least lol

[Cpv17]

The speed of the storm is going to be a huge factor in the track. If trades slow down near Jamaica & points west of there then lookout TX.

[tireman4]

Hurricane #Beryl has likely continued to intensify since this morning’s recon flight into the storm.

The increasingly axisymmetric appearance of #Beryl’s eye on visible satellite, w/ one or more mesovort mergers likely occurring over the last few hours (which often leads to rapid deepening of a hurricane), coupled with persistent & prolific eyewall lightning, certainly suggest that #Beryl has become a category 5 hurricane.

[tireman4]

Euro Ensemble Members

[tireman4]

From ( a pro met) Cold Miser at S2K

[Cromagnum]

Looking like a donut of doom right now.

[JDsGN]

Its waaaay too early for anybody to be calling this storm for Mexico and moving on. Its stronger than models predicted and the high pressure pulling back a bit this weekend really opens the door for it to follow the northerly track of the cone.

[sambucol]

Its waaaay too early for anybody to be calling this storm for Mexico and moving on. Its stronger than models predicted and the high pressure pulling back a bit this weekend really opens the door for it to follow the northerly track of the cone.

I agree. And some are writing it off as a Mexico storm. % unwise thing to tell people at this time.