Hurricane Beryl

[srainhoutx]

Hey Gang, don't be afraid to share Josh's Twitter/X posts. While it's been a while since he posted, he is a member here and several of us are friends with him.

[Stratton20]

Well this is going to be an issue , the 18z GFS yet again initialized almost 20 MB too high, that pretty much kills that model run immediately, honestly the hurricane models might be the better go to models for right now

[tireman4]

The 5.

[biggerbyte]

This has been a difficult one. It looks like to get any accuracy at all it needs to get into the gulf. Models are pointing at several different outcomes. A meteorologist has even mentioned it possibly stalling just inland/offshore of Mexico, then taking a course northward to Texas or Louisiana.

[christinac2016]

Decided I needed to get on and get up to speed. Im thinking it might be a good idea to start prepping. If not for this one then for the next one.

[Scott747]

Well this is going to be an issue , the 18z GFS yet again initialized almost 20 MB too high, that pretty much kills that model run immediately, honestly the hurricane models might be the better go to models for right now

You don't immediately disregard a model run because the pressure initialization is incorrect. In fact the 18z GFS tracks almost identically to the latest NHC track.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 but thats kind of a huge difference as it shows a system that is much weaker than it currently is, wouldnt that have some implications? Just curious because i dont think ive seen that before

[Scott747]

Scott747 but thats kind of a huge difference as it shows a system that is much weaker than it currently is, wouldnt that have some implications? Just curious because i dont think ive seen that before

Often times a global is way off on pressure initialization. Especially when it's so compact like Beryl. It may never get the initialization correct. The only thing this effects on track is with Beryl this strong it should track a little further to the n before it runs into the rebuilding ridge. An argument could be made that the incorrect initialization by the GFS would miss this, but the 18z GFS is actually a bit further n regardless before it hits the ridge and bends back w after Jamaica. Looks very similar to the 12 Euro.

The track towards Jamaica looks pretty straightforward. The interests in this board and Texas coastal residents is what we see in the upper atmosphere taking shape once it nears the YP.

[don]

Well this is going to be an issue , the 18z GFS yet again initialized almost 20 MB too high, that pretty much kills that model run immediately, honestly the hurricane models might be the better go to models for right now

You're putting too much weight on the mb pressure output, global models lack resolution so its not uncommon for them to be off on strength.That doesn't necessarily mean the track is off though.

[don]

Scott747 but thats kind of a huge difference as it shows a system that is much weaker than it currently is, wouldnt that have some implications? Just curious because i dont think ive seen that before

Often times a global is way off on pressure initialization. Especially when it's so compact like Beryl. It may never get the initialization correct. The only thing this effects on track is with Beryl this strong it should track a little further to the n before it runs into the rebuilding ridge. An argument could be made that the incorrect initialization by the GFS would miss this, but the 18z GFS is actually a bit further n regardless before it hits the ridge and bends back w after Jamaica. Looks very similar to the 12 Euro.

The track towards Jamaica looks pretty straightforward. The interests in this board and Texas coastal residents is what we see in the upper atmosphere taking shape once it nears the YP.

Yep 100% agree.

[Stratton20]

Thanks for the input! I just naturally assumed a pressure difference like that could through off the track

[Cpv17]

Thanks for the input! I just naturally assumed a pressure difference like that could through off the track

I mean, there’s been several people on Storm2K over the years that have said the same thing, so I don’t blame you for thinking that. If it’s true then hundreds have been misinformed. It would only make sense for a storm track to be off if it doesn’t have the strength modeled correctly. The strength of a storm has a big impact on the track.

[don]

Thanks for the input! I just naturally assumed a pressure difference like that could through off the track

I mean, there’s been several people on Storm2K over the years that have said the same thing, so I don’t blame you for thinking that. If it’s true then hundreds have been misinformed. It would only make sense for a storm track to be off if it doesn’t have the strength modeled correctly. The strength of a storm has a big impact on the track.

We're not saying that strength doesn't have a factor in the track of a storm.Yes a stronger storm would feel the trough more and bump up against the ridge.Which could allow a storm to make a deviation to the right of the track (ie: Rita, Ike). But a TC's strength ALONE wouldn't be enough to make it move from making landfall in Mexico to now the upper Texas coast for example.You would still need the cooperation of the trough/high placement to get such a track to happen.What we're saying is that the overall steering currents have much more of an effect on the track of a TC than its strength alone.

TLDR The strength of the trough or placement of high pressure has much more of a barring on track than the strength of the storm.

[biggerbyte]

Well after days of going back and forth, we end up right back where we started. I've pretty much given up on Model based forecasting until the last day or two. Today its Mexico. What will tomorrow bring.. Stay tuned.

[Cpv17]

Thanks for the input! I just naturally assumed a pressure difference like that could through off the track

I mean, there’s been several people on Storm2K over the years that have said the same thing, so I don’t blame you for thinking that. If it’s true then hundreds have been misinformed. It would only make sense for a storm track to be off if it doesn’t have the strength modeled correctly. The strength of a storm has a big impact on the track.

We're not saying that strength doesn't have a factor in the track of a storm.Yes a stronger storm would feel the trough more and bump up against the ridge.Which could allow a storm to make a deviation to the right of the track (ie: Rita, Ike). But a TC's strength ALONE wouldn't be enough to make it move from making landfall in Mexico to now the upper Texas coast for example.You would still need the cooperation of the trough/high placement to get such a track to happen.What we're saying is that the overall steering currents have much more of an effect on the track of a TC than its strength alone.

TLDR The strength of the trough or placement of high pressure has much more of a barring on track than the strength of the storm.

I’m aware of that, but there have literally been hundreds of posters on Storm2K through the years that have said to disregard a model run when the strength isn’t properly initialized and this is the first I’ve ever heard of something different. So it just goes against what I thought I knew. You can go on there right now and read the Beryl discussion and come across it. My solution to this is just to use the hurricane models and not weigh the globals as much, I suppose.

[Andrew]

In extreme situations similar to Beryl where global models can't properly resolve the steep pressure gradient it can cause higher than normal track/intensity errors. This is why some of the nested hurricane models are performing better so far and might be a better indication of how shear and land could interact with the storm across the Caribbean. Usually the difference between model initialization and recon data isn't as extreme but Beryl is very small so it will be something that will need to be monitored over the coming days.

[don]

I mean, there’s been several people on Storm2K over the years that have said the same thing, so I don’t blame you for thinking that. If it’s true then hundreds have been misinformed. It would only make sense for a storm track to be off if it doesn’t have the strength modeled correctly. The strength of a storm has a big impact on the track.

We're not saying that strength doesn't have a factor in the track of a storm.Yes a stronger storm would feel the trough more and bump up against the ridge.Which could allow a storm to make a deviation to the right of the track (ie: Rita, Ike). But a TC's strength ALONE wouldn't be enough to make it move from making landfall in Mexico to now the upper Texas coast for example.You would still need the cooperation of the trough/high placement to get such a track to happen.What we're saying is that the overall steering currents have much more of an effect on the track of a TC than its strength alone.

TLDR The strength of the trough or placement of high pressure has much more of a barring on track than the strength of the storm.

I’m aware of that, but there have literally been hundreds of posters on Storm2K through the years that have said to disregard a model run when the strength isn’t properly initialized and this is the first I’ve ever heard of something different. So it just goes against what I thought I knew. You can go on there right now and read the Beryl discussion and come across it. My solution to this is just to use the hurricane models and not weigh the globals as much, I suppose.

I agree, it's better to put more weight on the tropical models and overall consensus of both tropical and global models (TCVN) than it is to look at individual models (especially global models) when determining the track of TC's.

[Scott747]

In extreme situations similar to Beryl where global models can't properly resolve the steep pressure gradient it can cause higher than normal track/intensity errors. This is why some of the nested hurricane models are performing better so far and might be a better indication of how shear and land could interact with the storm across the Caribbean. Usually the difference between model initialization and recon data isn't as extreme but Beryl is very small so it will be something that will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Only pushback I have here is that we're not talking about some dramatic initialization issue. While the GFS is off and the compact nature has caused issues with the initial pressure it's still showing an organized cyclone.

Intensity going forward would be an argument. Dramatic track adjustment isn't in this case. At least in the short and mid range.

[Scott747]

Early on the 0z ICON is further w and s on the approach to the YP. S of Cozumel instead of over it.

[Stormlover2020]

Icon way in Mexico