Hurricane Beryl

[Cpv17]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....

You know 10x more than I do so if you say so then I’ll take your word for it.

[captainbarbossa19]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....

I agree. I think somewhere between Tampico and Galveston is most likely at this point looking at the trough and ridge setup currently. I feel like we should know a lot more in a few days.

[Stratton20]

CMC joins the GFS and ICON with a texas landfall, very interesting

[Stormlover2020]

Ignore gfs it shows it weak weak weak

[Scott747]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....

You know 10x more than I do so if you say so then I’ll take your word for it.

Well I'm usually one of the ones that lectures folks about making any type of definitive statement like that. Especially in the absence of upper level data getting injested into the models. But to get anything e of the border then the guidance as it gets near Jamaica and the YP needs to be WAY off. And it's in a range that I just can't see that happening. Caveats and all that though.

12z ICON, GFS and CMS show similar setups as it exits the YP. Euro is the outlier to the s. And we've seen this before where one of either the GFS/Euro is the outlier only for the rest of the models to switch.

Haven't had a chance to check on the recon schedule but I'm sure there is upper level missions scheduled that should be hitting the models by 0z tonight.

[biggerbyte]

Not since Ike have I been so concerned.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not since Ike have I been so concerned.

You weren't concerned about Laura?

[Scott747]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....

I agree. I think somewhere between Tampico and Galveston is most likely at this point looking at the trough and ridge setup currently. I feel like we should know a lot more in a few days.

Started logistical planning Friday night. Eventual landfall for the WGulf we had was Tampico to the Tex/Mex border. Still about the same unless Euro budges.

Tried to talk Josh into going for Grenada or the island just to the n. He's decided against it and waiting for potential Jamaica or YP hit then Mexico or Texas if warranted.

[captainbarbossa19]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....

I agree. I think somewhere between Tampico and Galveston is most likely at this point looking at the trough and ridge setup currently. I feel like we should know a lot more in a few days.

Started logistical planning Friday night. Eventual landfall for the WGulf we had was Tampico to the Tex/Mex border. Still about the same unless Euro budges.

Tried to talk Josh into going for Grenada or the island just to the n. He's decided against it and waiting for potential Jamaica or YP hit then Mexico or Texas if warranted.

It sounds reasonable at the moment. However, the Euro is known to often over-strengthen ridges. I have noticed that usually the GFS advances troughs too quickly, while the Euro is slower. Interestingly enough, the GFS has the trough displaced further west than the Euro which is opposite of expected. Location and timing of the trough certainly could influence the track. Definitely will know within a few days if Beryl is a concern for us.

[Stormlover2020]

Stronger system is it will feel the trough the weaker will keep south

[biggerbyte]

Not since Ike have I been so concerned.

You weren't concerned about Laura?

Laura was a problem points east of Texas. Concern for them, yes. I have family and friends on the coast of Texas now.

[DoctorMu]

Now a Major Hurricane

She's a beauty.

[Cpv17]

I agree. I think somewhere between Tampico and Galveston is most likely at this point looking at the trough and ridge setup currently. I feel like we should know a lot more in a few days.

Started logistical planning Friday night. Eventual landfall for the WGulf we had was Tampico to the Tex/Mex border. Still about the same unless Euro budges.

Tried to talk Josh into going for Grenada or the island just to the n. He's decided against it and waiting for potential Jamaica or YP hit then Mexico or Texas if warranted.

It sounds reasonable at the moment. However, the Euro is known to often over-strengthen ridges. I have noticed that usually the GFS advances troughs too quickly, while the Euro is slower. Interestingly enough, the GFS has the trough displaced further west than the Euro which is opposite of expected. Location and timing of the trough certainly could influence the track. Definitely will know within a few days if Beryl is a concern for us.

I was wondering if that issue has been fixed on the Euro?

And are you back home for the summer?

[captainbarbossa19]

Started logistical planning Friday night. Eventual landfall for the WGulf we had was Tampico to the Tex/Mex border. Still about the same unless Euro budges.

Tried to talk Josh into going for Grenada or the island just to the n. He's decided against it and waiting for potential Jamaica or YP hit then Mexico or Texas if warranted.

It sounds reasonable at the moment. However, the Euro is known to often over-strengthen ridges. I have noticed that usually the GFS advances troughs too quickly, while the Euro is slower. Interestingly enough, the GFS has the trough displaced further west than the Euro which is opposite of expected. Location and timing of the trough certainly could influence the track. Definitely will know within a few days if Beryl is a concern for us.

I was wondering if that issue has been fixed on the Euro?

And are you back home for the summer?

Yes I am home for summer. Interestingly enough, I am planning to head back to Starkville next weekend to pick up some packages from my apartment. Hopefully I don't have to stay lol.

[DoctorMu]

Behold!



The Caribbean has some shear, but once Beryl blasts through Cancun and the Yucatan into the GoM, she will restrengthen... and we'll see how much Beryl turns.



The latest models have pushed the path farther south...but the path progs will change and we' rea long way off.

[tireman4]

Environment that Beryl will be traversing

[Cpv17]

Here are the latest hurricane model tracks:

[Stratton20]

Euro still in mexico, but it did shift north some, so far the euro is the outlier at least in the op model department

[biggerbyte]

Models are flipping again today.. Mexico is back on the table. LOL The fact that Texas was ever, or is an option is concerning.

[DoctorMu]

Models are flipping again today.. Mexico is back on the table. LOL The fact that Texas was ever, or is an option is concerning.

We're 9 days out. The models will be flip-flopping on the issues for at least 5 more days.