Hurricane Beryl

[Stratton20]

Very impressive structure with a Eye that is definitely starting to clear out, i could even see this making a run at a cat 4

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 check out the newest hurricane models, they all make a sharp north turn once they get into the gulf, including the TVCN, very interesting

[Stratton20]

Weaker ridging on the GFS, Middle texas landfall

[Scott747]

6z GFS has a more pronounced weakness allowing Beryl to move more NW to NNW once it exits the YP and takes aim at Matagorda Bay. Of note is that Beryl is moving at a pretty good clip and potentially could be approaching the Texas coast by this time next weekend. So while we're still talking about a system that hasn't even entered the Caribbean the timeframe is quickly getting in a range to take it more seriously.

After losing some strength in the Central Carribean the 0z hurricane models deepen it once it gets in the NW Caribbean which isn't surprising. Only good news on that front is that it's a rather compact system and the YP does a good job disrupting it before remerging in the Gulf. Would likely expand a bit as it reorganizes.

[biggerbyte]

What a differen a day makes. Gosh, a few days. We still need to get it into the gulf, which looks to cross some land mass, but just wow. High pressure was supposed to hold, big time. Couple that with this time of the year. Who would have ever thunk?
I bet 57 is scratching his head.

Anywho....It's Sunday. I personally will be hanging my hat on this new trend. It may flip back again, but just as the other end of the stick looked certain. I'd bet it's time to start throwing caution out to family, friends, and the general public. Safe before sorry.

I have a sense of trouble coming. Big trouble. This is going to be horrible for me since I have cancer doctor appointments coming up. Baylor is a long way from my area. We all don't need damage and flooding. No need to panic, of course, but the potential is quite concerning.

[biggerbyte]

Oh, and I forgot to add that even Louisiana is getting tagged by a couple of models. If that were to happen, well really Texas too, this conversation would go back to a few days ago when Texas or points east looked to be a good bet.

[srainhoutx]

Now a Major Hurricane

[Stratton20]

That is about as impressive of an image as you’re ever gonna see in this part of the season, its an incredible sight, praying for barbados and others in the path of this monster

[cperk]

Question for one of our members once a hurricane develops its structure under certain conditions can it expand in size.

[AtascocitaWX]

Question for one of our members once a hurricane develops its structure under certain conditions can it expand in size.

Definitely not a Met, but I believe they can.
I remember Katrina blowing up. . Ike too

[swell]

That is about as impressive of an image as you’re ever gonna see in this part of the season, its an incredible sight, praying for barbados and others in the path of this monster

As a rule of thumb, storms contract while strengthening. Think of an ice skater spinning with hands up. With weakening, wind field weakens, but expands outward. Back to the ice skater...they'll expand their arms out to slow down.

[Andrew]

Question for one of our members once a hurricane develops its structure under certain conditions can it expand in size.

Definitely not a Met, but I believe they can.
I remember Katrina blowing up. . Ike too

Eyewall replacement cycles can definitely expand the size of the storm. Interactions with land can also have that effect when the inner core is impacted and expands outward. Hurricane Ike is a good example as mentioned by AtascocitaWX

[djmike]

What are the chances Beryl just slams into Tampico Mexico? What is the “likely” scenario landfall in your opinion right now?

[Stormlover2020]

South Texas

[Andrew]

What are the chances Beryl just slams into Tampico Mexico? What is the “likely” scenario landfall in your opinion right now?

Way too early to say. Not only are we talking about a landfall a week plus out we have the extra factor of land interaction over the Central Caribbean to deal with. There are a lot of moving parts with this forecast and models continue to struggle with intensity of the storm which will be a decider on where this eventually makes landfall. I think the NHC forecast is pretty accurate right now and beyond that models really differ with the positioning of ridging across the United States and the evolution of troughing over the Northern Plains. Nothing to panic over right now but something to keep an eye on for sure.

[Stormlover2020]

Icon cat 3 Galveston

[Andrew]

Pretty remarkable

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Beryl has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM AST...1535 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[TexasBreeze]

I wonder what the odds of this going east of here instead of south? Seems trends are ongoing and seen it many times before that they keep going east. Way too early for that though with it being so far out still...

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the odds of this going east of here instead of south? Seems trends are ongoing and seen it many times before that they keep going east. Way too early for that though with it being so far out still...

This is my thinking as well. I’d say it’s definitely on the table.

[Scott747]

Beryl isn't going east of the Tex/La border....