Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

18z GFS - this may be closer than usual on the long-term prog.





That would be a gap.

[DoctorMu]

Crusin' and slowly strenghtening.

[DoctorMu]

For a bruisin.' We're a long way off, but eyebrow raised.

[biggerbyte]

Oh the day to day.. It's almost maddening in the tropics world.

[biggerbyte]

This is quite disturbing.

[Stratton20]

ICON 00z Cat 3 into corpus…

[sambucol]

ICON 00z Cat 3 into corpus…

Do you think at this point that it’s likely Beryl will make a middle to upper TX coast landfall if the high erodes or moves away? I saw on S2K the TUTT was eroding.

[Ptarmigan]

For a bruisin.' We're a long way off, but eyebrow raised.

That is a week from now. Unsettling to see Texas could get hit by Beryl.

Hurricanes hitting Texas in June and July have occurred in the past.

[Stratton20]

GFS cat 1 hitting north of south padre, tx

[Scott747]

0Z GFS has stronger ridging on the approach to the YP allowing Beryl to get a little further w before feeling any weakness. However this is back to back runs with enough of a weakness that allows a potential track towards the lower/middle Texas coast.

Next up will be the Euro and if it holds or begins to show something similar to the GFS.

[Scott747]

Will add that the 0z ICON is almost a carbon copy of the 0z GFS. 0z CMC is a bit wonky but shows a similar setup as the other two once in the Gulf.

Euro is basically by itself.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 bad run by the CMC i think, it initialized the storm almost 20 mb too high

[Scott747]

Scott747 bad run by the CMC i think, it initialized the storm almost 20 mb too high

I'm not worried about the initialization. I'm more interested with what it shows in the upper atmosphere/downstream once Beryl gets in the Gulf.

[Stormlover2020]

Trough is digging going to be a factor also

[sambucol]

Trough is digging going to be a factor also

How would that affect the track?

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, we will need to watch Beryl closely in SE Texas

[Pas_Bon]

Trough is digging going to be a factor also

How would that affect the track?

It would help to pull it poleward

[sambucol]

Guys and gals, we will need to watch Beryl closely in SE Texas

100% correct

[sambucol]

Trough is digging going to be a factor also

How would that affect the track?

It would help to pull it poleward

Thank you

[biggerbyte]

Classic