To me it looks like more of your typical early summer pattern across our area over the next week or two. Low 90’s with a 20-30% of popups. Could be much much worse.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:55 pm Yeah the heat ridge is still holding strong, however if something does try to get going in the western caribbean in about 7-9 days on some ensembles , something may have a better chance of getting further north in the gulf, models agree on an east coast trough splitting part of its energy, and cutting off while retrograding into the gulf, temporarily eroding the heat ridge for a time, so their could be a small window if something were to try to get going, other than that i dont see a whole lot in the models other than typical scattered afternoon storms
June 2024
Seeing a few pop ups around town right now.
We had a brief pop-up in College Station. Very brief - just a dusting. A fairly typical early summer week is ahead. A few sea breeze showers partially fed by TS#2 are possible over the next 7 days.
10-20% chance of rain in CLL. 30-40% in HOU for the next week.
It's been worse...like last year.
10-20% chance of rain in CLL. 30-40% in HOU for the next week.
It's been worse...like last year.
Squalls down here in Cancun are really blowing…
I see zero rain chances on the horizon. Dangit.
The big suck has officially began. Everyone hunker down and keep the sprinklers readily available. Come on football season.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1008
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Well it is donut hole season here in Texas looking at model precip maps and seeing the high settle right over or near enough. That should mean Texas is closed for tropical business until it moves away or wekens some. The texMex border and Mexico is in play though.
I drove through heavy rain on the morning commute. What's this zero rain talk?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
486
FXUS64 KHGX 241103
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Ridging over the Desert Southwest/Texas should continue to
dominate the weather pattern early this week. Abundant moisture
and weak capping may allow for isolated showers/storms to develop
with afternoon heating, though again coverage will be limited,
such that most of the area should remain dry and rain-free. Areas
south of I- 10 will have the greatest chances of receiving
rainfall during this period. Minor coastal flooding continues to
impact areas across the Bolivar Peninsula, therefore a Coastal
Flood Advisory remain in effect until 7 PM Tonight. Continue to
exercise caution while traversing these areas to allow waters to
recede from any impacted roadways.
Highs will still reach the 80s to upper 90s Today and Tuesday with
lows in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast. NAEFS/GEFS 500mb
heights still remain above the 90th Climatological percentile during
this period. Similar persistence can be seen in the ensemble 850mb
temperatures, suggesting that heat impacts will be relatively
similar as well. Heat indices are expected to reach 101-107 during
the afternoon hours, similar to that of yesterday. While a few
isolated spots could reach 108 or more, it won`t be widespread
enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Today. Tuesday also appears to
be borderline as well, though slightly warmer. The heat risk through
Tuesday will be moderate (3/5) for most people participating in low-
impact, leisurely outdoor activities. However, those participating
in strenuous outdoor activities may feel major (4/5) heat stress. If
you plain to spent time outdoors, remember to drink plenty of
fluids, wear lightweight clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Summer will persist through the long term! A strong ridge of high
pressure has settled in over the Southern Plains helping to keep
Southeast Texas hot with only slight chances of rainfall. Thanks
to low level moisture and daytime heating, there will be a daily
chance of some sea breeze induced showers and thunderstorms mainly
along and south of I-10. These storms shouldn`t produce more than
a quick 0.5" of rain before moving further inland or dissipating.
The main weather story through next weekend will be the
potentially dangerous heat that is building across the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s inland
with the immediate coast staying in the upper 80s to low 90s. Add
in the humidity, afternoon max heat indices will be in the
105-110 degree range through the weekend. Heat Advisory will be
likely for some or all of the area at times. There won`t be much
of a cool down either during the overnight hours either with
minimum temperatures only in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of
the region.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Isolated patchy fog should clear up later this morning. VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the day with isolated showers
possible during the afternoon hours. S/SE Winds become light and
variable overnight into Tuesday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low
seas will persist through the upcoming weekend. There will a
slight chance of isolated showers or storms each morning and
afternoon. Tides today and tomorrow will again be around 3 to
3.5ft above MLLW, so some minor coastal flooding is possible -
mainly near along the more susceptible sections of the Bolivar
Peninsula. So, the Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect for
there. The high risk of strong rip currents is also expected to
continue through the next several days.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 77 95 77 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 20 0 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 241103
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Ridging over the Desert Southwest/Texas should continue to
dominate the weather pattern early this week. Abundant moisture
and weak capping may allow for isolated showers/storms to develop
with afternoon heating, though again coverage will be limited,
such that most of the area should remain dry and rain-free. Areas
south of I- 10 will have the greatest chances of receiving
rainfall during this period. Minor coastal flooding continues to
impact areas across the Bolivar Peninsula, therefore a Coastal
Flood Advisory remain in effect until 7 PM Tonight. Continue to
exercise caution while traversing these areas to allow waters to
recede from any impacted roadways.
Highs will still reach the 80s to upper 90s Today and Tuesday with
lows in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast. NAEFS/GEFS 500mb
heights still remain above the 90th Climatological percentile during
this period. Similar persistence can be seen in the ensemble 850mb
temperatures, suggesting that heat impacts will be relatively
similar as well. Heat indices are expected to reach 101-107 during
the afternoon hours, similar to that of yesterday. While a few
isolated spots could reach 108 or more, it won`t be widespread
enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Today. Tuesday also appears to
be borderline as well, though slightly warmer. The heat risk through
Tuesday will be moderate (3/5) for most people participating in low-
impact, leisurely outdoor activities. However, those participating
in strenuous outdoor activities may feel major (4/5) heat stress. If
you plain to spent time outdoors, remember to drink plenty of
fluids, wear lightweight clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Summer will persist through the long term! A strong ridge of high
pressure has settled in over the Southern Plains helping to keep
Southeast Texas hot with only slight chances of rainfall. Thanks
to low level moisture and daytime heating, there will be a daily
chance of some sea breeze induced showers and thunderstorms mainly
along and south of I-10. These storms shouldn`t produce more than
a quick 0.5" of rain before moving further inland or dissipating.
The main weather story through next weekend will be the
potentially dangerous heat that is building across the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s inland
with the immediate coast staying in the upper 80s to low 90s. Add
in the humidity, afternoon max heat indices will be in the
105-110 degree range through the weekend. Heat Advisory will be
likely for some or all of the area at times. There won`t be much
of a cool down either during the overnight hours either with
minimum temperatures only in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of
the region.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Isolated patchy fog should clear up later this morning. VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the day with isolated showers
possible during the afternoon hours. S/SE Winds become light and
variable overnight into Tuesday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low
seas will persist through the upcoming weekend. There will a
slight chance of isolated showers or storms each morning and
afternoon. Tides today and tomorrow will again be around 3 to
3.5ft above MLLW, so some minor coastal flooding is possible -
mainly near along the more susceptible sections of the Bolivar
Peninsula. So, the Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect for
there. The high risk of strong rip currents is also expected to
continue through the next several days.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 77 95 77 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 20 0 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler
Welcome to summer in SETX.
Seabreeze or bust for now.
Seabreeze or bust for now.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
979
FXUS64 KHGX 242043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Showers will continue moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon, courtesy of the influx of moisture and a weak cap. The
synoptic pattern remains unchanged with an area of high pressure
continuing to sit overtop the state. This will continue to lead to
increasing daytime temperatures. While we managed to loom just below
the Advisory criteria today with regards to heat...that is not
looking like it will be the case for Tuesday.
With the 500mb temperatures continuing to reach above the 90th
percentile per NAEFS/GFS, not expecting to see this high pressure
weaken in the short-term period. Daytime highs for Tuesday will be
in the 90s inland and in the upper 80s along the coast. With
elevated dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees, heat index
values will be in the 108-112 range for a good portion of SE Texas.
A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all inland
areas on Tuesday (interests along the coast should remain below
criteria).
Nighttime temperatures will not provide much relief...while heat
index values will relax, it will still feel very warm and muggy.
Temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 70s to low
80s.
With heat as the headline for the short-term, please remember to
practice heat safety. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest
time of the day, stay hydrated, LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, and remember
that if it is too hot for the palm of your hand...it is too hot for
your pets` paws. Stay safe!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
The prominent ridge over the Southern CONUS begins to weaken by
00Z Wednesday, shifting to be more focused over the Four Corners
region. This will allow a trough to dig down to our east, bringing
a shortwave by early morning Thursday. While the most widespread
impacts seem to be localized over Louisiana, the positive
vorticity advection may have a small increase in local
precipitation chances from diurnal showers and thunderstorms
throughout Thursday and Friday. The precipitation totals for these
should be small, perhaps some heavier rain in localized
thunderstorms, but overall the totals should not exceed 0.1
inches.
Despite the weakening of this ridge, the temperature remains high
for the next few days. Expect highs in the 90s, closer to the low
90s for regions near the coast, with mid to upper 90s further
inland. Maximum heat indices will remain in the triple digits, with
it being possible later in the week that a Heat Advisory may need to
be issued. Low temperatures will be in the upper 70s across the
region, with low 80s being possible towards the coast. High relative
humidity in our area will contribute to the heat index temperatures,
and the higher minimum temperatures may not provide much relief
overnight. Ensure that you are consuming plenty of water and
avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day if
possible. Check in on your pets and family members as the heat
worsens.
Ellis/Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
VFR prevailing through the rest of today. VCSH possible this
afternoon with the sea breeze. Any activity should wane by evening
hours. MVFR CIGS develop at terminals generally west of I-45
corridor overnight tonight. Brief IFR CIGs possible from around
12Z to 14Z for those sites as well. Expect improvement to VFR by
mid to late morning.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Seas will remain on a diminishing trend into tomorrow, reaching
around 2 feet. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail
through the duration of the week, generally remaining below
advisory thresholds. Some isolated coastal flooding is possible
along the Bolivar Peninsula. There will be a daily risk of
isolated showers and thunderstorms every day through the weekend.
Cady/Ellis
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 94 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 78 94 77 96 / 0 10 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 82 90 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Ellis/Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cady/Ellis
FXUS64 KHGX 242043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Showers will continue moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon, courtesy of the influx of moisture and a weak cap. The
synoptic pattern remains unchanged with an area of high pressure
continuing to sit overtop the state. This will continue to lead to
increasing daytime temperatures. While we managed to loom just below
the Advisory criteria today with regards to heat...that is not
looking like it will be the case for Tuesday.
With the 500mb temperatures continuing to reach above the 90th
percentile per NAEFS/GFS, not expecting to see this high pressure
weaken in the short-term period. Daytime highs for Tuesday will be
in the 90s inland and in the upper 80s along the coast. With
elevated dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees, heat index
values will be in the 108-112 range for a good portion of SE Texas.
A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all inland
areas on Tuesday (interests along the coast should remain below
criteria).
Nighttime temperatures will not provide much relief...while heat
index values will relax, it will still feel very warm and muggy.
Temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 70s to low
80s.
With heat as the headline for the short-term, please remember to
practice heat safety. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest
time of the day, stay hydrated, LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, and remember
that if it is too hot for the palm of your hand...it is too hot for
your pets` paws. Stay safe!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
The prominent ridge over the Southern CONUS begins to weaken by
00Z Wednesday, shifting to be more focused over the Four Corners
region. This will allow a trough to dig down to our east, bringing
a shortwave by early morning Thursday. While the most widespread
impacts seem to be localized over Louisiana, the positive
vorticity advection may have a small increase in local
precipitation chances from diurnal showers and thunderstorms
throughout Thursday and Friday. The precipitation totals for these
should be small, perhaps some heavier rain in localized
thunderstorms, but overall the totals should not exceed 0.1
inches.
Despite the weakening of this ridge, the temperature remains high
for the next few days. Expect highs in the 90s, closer to the low
90s for regions near the coast, with mid to upper 90s further
inland. Maximum heat indices will remain in the triple digits, with
it being possible later in the week that a Heat Advisory may need to
be issued. Low temperatures will be in the upper 70s across the
region, with low 80s being possible towards the coast. High relative
humidity in our area will contribute to the heat index temperatures,
and the higher minimum temperatures may not provide much relief
overnight. Ensure that you are consuming plenty of water and
avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day if
possible. Check in on your pets and family members as the heat
worsens.
Ellis/Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
VFR prevailing through the rest of today. VCSH possible this
afternoon with the sea breeze. Any activity should wane by evening
hours. MVFR CIGS develop at terminals generally west of I-45
corridor overnight tonight. Brief IFR CIGs possible from around
12Z to 14Z for those sites as well. Expect improvement to VFR by
mid to late morning.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Seas will remain on a diminishing trend into tomorrow, reaching
around 2 feet. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail
through the duration of the week, generally remaining below
advisory thresholds. Some isolated coastal flooding is possible
along the Bolivar Peninsula. There will be a daily risk of
isolated showers and thunderstorms every day through the weekend.
Cady/Ellis
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 94 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 78 94 77 96 / 0 10 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 82 90 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Ellis/Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cady/Ellis
Feels like a typical summer day.
Here is a song that has not been identified to this very day. It was recorded back in 1984. It is dubbed The Most Mysterious Song on the Internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPGf4liO-KQ
Here is a song that has not been identified to this very day. It was recorded back in 1984. It is dubbed The Most Mysterious Song on the Internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPGf4liO-KQ
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
171
FXUS64 KHGX 250828
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Broad mid-upper ridging across sw/s parts of the country will
dominate regional wx keeping temps slightly above seasonable norms.
Didn`t make any changes to the inherited heat advisory today.
Continued warm tonight with lows 75-82 and on Wed with highs again
in the 90s.
In regards to rain chances, there are isolated-scattered showers
beginning to show up on the radar scope in the Matagorda Bay area
and adjacent coastal waters. This is generally where higher PW`s
will be be situated this morning. GOES Total PW product loop shows a
tongue of drier air trying to filter in further to the east. This,
combined with subsidence should keep activity elsewhere isolated at
best around peak heating. Things get a touch more interesting Wed.
Ridging expands a bit further northward into the Rockies, putting us
in more of a northerly flow aloft. Guidance indicates we might see
an embedded vort lobe try to sneak into the area late in the day
tomorrow. A mix of guidance (ECMWF and some of the HREF members)
suggest the potential for some sct tstms to develop and sag into
portions of the area late in the afternoon/evening. Others aren`t as
bullish with subsidence winning that battle. But it`s worth keeping
an eye on considering distinct inverted-v fcst soundings indicating
the potential for gusty winds/downbursts should any stronger cells
emerge.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
The long term forecast will be largely be dominated by ridging
spanning the Southern CONUS, which will result hot conditions
reminiscent of the typical Texas Summer. On Thursday, the upper
level ridge will be centered about the Desert Southwest over
Western TX/Southern NM. Though, ensemble means suggest that the
midlevel ridge will weaken during this period, allowing for weak
impulses to round the peripheral of the ridge and pass over SE
Texas. PWs in excess of 1.75" indicate plentiful moisture will be
available, and weak capping should further support the develop of
afternoon showers/thunderstorms with daytime heating. Global
ensembles and the latest suite of deterministic model runs
indicate that the midlevel ridge will amplify over the Southeast
CONUS/ArkLaTex Region heading into the weekend. 850mb temperatures
are progged to gradually creep up as well, all be it very
gradually, which is reflected in the upward trend of multi-run
max temperature values. Despite laking forcing aloft, sea breeze
support looks more favorable on Sunday/Monday, which could help
initiate afternoon showers/storms along the sea breeze. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO suggests the possibility of a Saharan
Dust Plume passing across SE Texas on portions of Friday/Saturday.
This may result in hazy-white sky conditions during this period.
By in large, we`re still looking at hot conditions through the
beginning of next week, with highs in the upper 80s near the
coast to upper 90s inland. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from
around 100-108 at their peak, with isolated higher values
possible. The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely
outdoor activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) each day. WBGT
values suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor
activities may feel Major (level 4/5) heat stress during the
hottest parts of the day. Heat Advisories could be warranted
during this period. Regardless, the oppressive nature of Texas
summers still warrants the need to practice common heat safety
tactics. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
With the exception of some spotty MVFR ceilings in the 12-16z
timeframe, VFR conditions should prevail. Can`t totally rule out an
isolated late afternoon tstm CXO southward in the late afternoon,
but chances much too low to include the mention in the TAFs.
47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 78 96 78 / 10 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 95 79 96 79 / 20 20 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 90 82 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 250828
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Broad mid-upper ridging across sw/s parts of the country will
dominate regional wx keeping temps slightly above seasonable norms.
Didn`t make any changes to the inherited heat advisory today.
Continued warm tonight with lows 75-82 and on Wed with highs again
in the 90s.
In regards to rain chances, there are isolated-scattered showers
beginning to show up on the radar scope in the Matagorda Bay area
and adjacent coastal waters. This is generally where higher PW`s
will be be situated this morning. GOES Total PW product loop shows a
tongue of drier air trying to filter in further to the east. This,
combined with subsidence should keep activity elsewhere isolated at
best around peak heating. Things get a touch more interesting Wed.
Ridging expands a bit further northward into the Rockies, putting us
in more of a northerly flow aloft. Guidance indicates we might see
an embedded vort lobe try to sneak into the area late in the day
tomorrow. A mix of guidance (ECMWF and some of the HREF members)
suggest the potential for some sct tstms to develop and sag into
portions of the area late in the afternoon/evening. Others aren`t as
bullish with subsidence winning that battle. But it`s worth keeping
an eye on considering distinct inverted-v fcst soundings indicating
the potential for gusty winds/downbursts should any stronger cells
emerge.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
The long term forecast will be largely be dominated by ridging
spanning the Southern CONUS, which will result hot conditions
reminiscent of the typical Texas Summer. On Thursday, the upper
level ridge will be centered about the Desert Southwest over
Western TX/Southern NM. Though, ensemble means suggest that the
midlevel ridge will weaken during this period, allowing for weak
impulses to round the peripheral of the ridge and pass over SE
Texas. PWs in excess of 1.75" indicate plentiful moisture will be
available, and weak capping should further support the develop of
afternoon showers/thunderstorms with daytime heating. Global
ensembles and the latest suite of deterministic model runs
indicate that the midlevel ridge will amplify over the Southeast
CONUS/ArkLaTex Region heading into the weekend. 850mb temperatures
are progged to gradually creep up as well, all be it very
gradually, which is reflected in the upward trend of multi-run
max temperature values. Despite laking forcing aloft, sea breeze
support looks more favorable on Sunday/Monday, which could help
initiate afternoon showers/storms along the sea breeze. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO suggests the possibility of a Saharan
Dust Plume passing across SE Texas on portions of Friday/Saturday.
This may result in hazy-white sky conditions during this period.
By in large, we`re still looking at hot conditions through the
beginning of next week, with highs in the upper 80s near the
coast to upper 90s inland. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from
around 100-108 at their peak, with isolated higher values
possible. The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely
outdoor activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) each day. WBGT
values suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor
activities may feel Major (level 4/5) heat stress during the
hottest parts of the day. Heat Advisories could be warranted
during this period. Regardless, the oppressive nature of Texas
summers still warrants the need to practice common heat safety
tactics. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
With the exception of some spotty MVFR ceilings in the 12-16z
timeframe, VFR conditions should prevail. Can`t totally rule out an
isolated late afternoon tstm CXO southward in the late afternoon,
but chances much too low to include the mention in the TAFs.
47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 78 96 78 / 10 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 95 79 96 79 / 20 20 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 90 82 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
Popcorn! Get yer popcorn!
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I dont know whats worse, this heat today or Jim Schlossnagle committing the biggest treachery in all of college sports
It was a big enough gut punch to come that close to finally winning, then he lies his *** off during the post-game presser, and doesn't even stay 24 hours. I saw where the team had to find out on Twitter. Couldn't even celebrate a good year.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 5:34 pm I dont know whats worse, this heat today or Jim Schlossnagle committing the biggest treachery in all of college sports
These coaches are supposed to be role models. And we wonder why kids now are all about the money and nothing else. The whole thing is a microcosm of today’s society.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:12 pmIt was a big enough gut punch to come that close to finally winning, then he lies his *** off during the post-game presser, and doesn't even stay 24 hours. I saw where the team had to find out on Twitter. Couldn't even celebrate a good year.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 5:34 pm I dont know whats worse, this heat today or Jim Schlossnagle committing the biggest treachery in all of college sports
Anyway, when we landed at IAH yesterday the first notification to pop-up on my phone was the Heat Advisory. I can’t wait to leave these summers behind some day.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
995
FXUS64 KHGX 260912
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A few isolated showers again starting to show up along the coast.
Anticipate that these will wane in the mid morning hours. Mid
level subsidence and H7 temps around 11C and H85 temps 19-21C
should generally keep POPs on the very low side, but there`s a
non-zero chance we could see a cell or two emerge toward peak
heating. Southern portions of the CWA would probably be the place
to watch where less hostile capping will be in place along with the
potential for a weak baybreeze or seabreeze. Gusty winds would be
a possibility should any decent one pop up with inverted-v sounding
profile in place. Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will remain in
place and the ongoing heat advisory configuration & timing will
remain status quo.
Later this evening and overnight we`ll be keeping an eye to our
north and northeast (southern OK/Arkansas/ne TX/northern LA) to
see if any shra/tstms along a weak front and disturbances in the
NNE flow aloft can survive long enough to make it into portions of
southeast Texas. There remains a mix of guidance with varying opinions,
some much more bullish than others. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies,
overall confidence is below average...but feel it`s best to keep
some low POPs in the fcst until observed trends are better established.
Thursday wx looks about the same as today...warm/muggy, with a
non- zero chance of a few isolated storms with peak heating. Will let
the dayshift evaluate the need for any heat advsy extensions. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The long term forecast remains dominated by ridging spanning the
Southern CONUS. While the midlevel ridge starts off a tad weaker on
Friday, global ensembles indicate that it will amplify over the
Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region this the weekend into next week.
850mb temperatures are still progged to gradually creep up, further
reflected in the upward trend of multi-run max surface temperature
values. Deep moisture from PWs in excess of 1.75" and weak capping
will still bring a daily chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Rain chances remain greatest for areas largely south of I-10 where
the sea breeze may initiate most activity before tracking further
inland. Impulses rounding the midlevel ridge could further aid in
shower/storm development on Sunday and portions of Monday. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO indicates that plumes of Saharan Dust
will pass over SE Texas on Friday through Sunday. This may result
in hazy- white sky conditions during this period.
Overall, hot conditions should continue through mid next week, with
highs in the upper 80s near the coast to upper 90s inland. Some
isolated spots could see the highs break the triple digit mark.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices
during the afternoon will range from around 106-112 at their peak,
with isolated higher values possible. The Heat Risk for those
participating in leisurely outdoor activities will be Moderate
(level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each day. WBGT values suggest that
those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel Extreme
(level 5/5) heat stress during the hottest parts of the day.
Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted throughout this
period. Those planning to spend extensive time outside should
practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
VFR conditions should prevail. Exception might be in the morning
hours with the potential for some intermittent MVFR ceilings at
some locations. Storm chances still too low to mention in TAFs,
but can`t rule one out at any individual site across the southern
part of SE Tx. And as mentioned above, will be monitoring the trends
to our n/ne this evening in the event we might need to add the
mention into some TAFs CXO northward if any storms look like they
might survive and possibly make it into portions of the area. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 97 79 / 10 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 79 / 30 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 260912
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A few isolated showers again starting to show up along the coast.
Anticipate that these will wane in the mid morning hours. Mid
level subsidence and H7 temps around 11C and H85 temps 19-21C
should generally keep POPs on the very low side, but there`s a
non-zero chance we could see a cell or two emerge toward peak
heating. Southern portions of the CWA would probably be the place
to watch where less hostile capping will be in place along with the
potential for a weak baybreeze or seabreeze. Gusty winds would be
a possibility should any decent one pop up with inverted-v sounding
profile in place. Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will remain in
place and the ongoing heat advisory configuration & timing will
remain status quo.
Later this evening and overnight we`ll be keeping an eye to our
north and northeast (southern OK/Arkansas/ne TX/northern LA) to
see if any shra/tstms along a weak front and disturbances in the
NNE flow aloft can survive long enough to make it into portions of
southeast Texas. There remains a mix of guidance with varying opinions,
some much more bullish than others. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies,
overall confidence is below average...but feel it`s best to keep
some low POPs in the fcst until observed trends are better established.
Thursday wx looks about the same as today...warm/muggy, with a
non- zero chance of a few isolated storms with peak heating. Will let
the dayshift evaluate the need for any heat advsy extensions. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The long term forecast remains dominated by ridging spanning the
Southern CONUS. While the midlevel ridge starts off a tad weaker on
Friday, global ensembles indicate that it will amplify over the
Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region this the weekend into next week.
850mb temperatures are still progged to gradually creep up, further
reflected in the upward trend of multi-run max surface temperature
values. Deep moisture from PWs in excess of 1.75" and weak capping
will still bring a daily chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Rain chances remain greatest for areas largely south of I-10 where
the sea breeze may initiate most activity before tracking further
inland. Impulses rounding the midlevel ridge could further aid in
shower/storm development on Sunday and portions of Monday. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO indicates that plumes of Saharan Dust
will pass over SE Texas on Friday through Sunday. This may result
in hazy- white sky conditions during this period.
Overall, hot conditions should continue through mid next week, with
highs in the upper 80s near the coast to upper 90s inland. Some
isolated spots could see the highs break the triple digit mark.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices
during the afternoon will range from around 106-112 at their peak,
with isolated higher values possible. The Heat Risk for those
participating in leisurely outdoor activities will be Moderate
(level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each day. WBGT values suggest that
those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel Extreme
(level 5/5) heat stress during the hottest parts of the day.
Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted throughout this
period. Those planning to spend extensive time outside should
practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
VFR conditions should prevail. Exception might be in the morning
hours with the potential for some intermittent MVFR ceilings at
some locations. Storm chances still too low to mention in TAFs,
but can`t rule one out at any individual site across the southern
part of SE Tx. And as mentioned above, will be monitoring the trends
to our n/ne this evening in the event we might need to add the
mention into some TAFs CXO northward if any storms look like they
might survive and possibly make it into portions of the area. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 97 79 / 10 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 79 / 30 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227.
GM...None.
&&
$$
As an LSU fan, I am aghast at what transpired with it all. I think most people are. What actually perturbs me the most was that he actually used, "I left my family for this" as a reason he should've been celebrated for what he did. What a *&#*Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 5:34 pm I dont know whats worse, this heat today or Jim Schlossnagle committing the biggest treachery in all of college sports
Baton Rouge sports radio show (that I stream during my commute) stated this morning....."what are you going to do next? Off them?" They were pretty disgusted with that line, as well.
Weather-related.....Summer heat domes suck.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
As a Liberty alum, I thought it was backhanded what he did, but again (As Coach Neuheisel stated on Full Ride this morning, we do not know the back story) who knows what happened behind the scenes. To the weather...
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