2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I mean look at the GFS and Euro, they both start to develop it in the 96-120 hour period which in weather terms, definitely isnt far out, that’s probably why they pulled the trigger on it so fast

I haven’t had a chance to look at the models yet. Got lots of catching up to do lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 haha i get it , but basically they start to focus an area of low pressure somewhere between the NW caribbean and the BOC, but both models indicate the heat ridge will be splitting, so there could be more of a weakness to draw a system more northward

[Cpv17]

Ok, just got through looking at the models. What catches my eye the most about next weeks potential system is that the EPS actually has more of a signal for it than the GEFS does and it has a decent amount of members aimed at the Texas coastline.

[Stratton20]

Kind of Ironic that the EPS hs a stronger signal for development than the GEFS if you ask me lol

[Cpv17]

Kind of Ironic that the EPS hs a stronger signal for development than the GEFS if you ask me lol

Not sure I’ve seen that before. Pretty strange lol

[Cpv17]

0z ICON has the second system landfalling in the same place as the first one.

[Stratton20]

CMC northern mexico, but watching the 500 mb pattern carefully, looks like a shortwave trough may attempt to erode the ridge next week, opening up the north gulf

[Cpv17]

The EPS now has the next system going into Mexico as well.

[tireman4]

The EPS now has the next system going into Mexico as well.

Still early. Much more model runs and time to watch.

[Cpv17]

The EPS now has the next system going into Mexico as well.

Still early. Much more model runs and time to watch.

Yep. Way too early in the game to know much of anything about it.

[Pas_Bon]

What I often see (and am guilty of myself) is quick disregard of risk when models show elsewhere early on.

Take this PTC, for example. It had Galveston dead to rights just 2 short days ago in all modeling. Now, it’s a Tex-Mex Special.

Don’t let your guards down with this next potential system. That old adage of wanting to be the target in early modeling (because it rarely verifies) applies here. We are still at least 5 days out from any potential impacts of any potential system.

[Stratton20]

Eh this 2nd system looks kind of boring now, models dont do much with it, ensembles just bury it into mexico again, boring pattern

[Cpv17]

Eh this 2nd system looks kind of boring now, models dont do much with it, ensembles just bury it into mexico again, boring pattern

What’s interesting is the NHC talks about it moving N or NW.

[tireman4]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 true I did see that, plus it looked like even though on the euro, even as it approaches northern mexico, it looked like their was more of a weakness to the north , i guess we will see

[brazoriatx]

Cpv17 true I did see that, plus it looked like even though on the euro, even as it approaches northern mexico, it looked like their was more of a weakness to the north , i guess we will see

We're even now...past 2 winters you got snow...now we are cashing in..maybe? Lol

[Stratton20]

brazoriatx oh no last winter i got ice lol no snow, glad glad yall got the rain, hopefully this next system. can at least gain a little more latitude and give us a better shot at rain

[brazoriatx]

brazoriatx oh no last winter i got ice lol no snow, glad glad yall got the rain, hopefully this next system. can at least gain a little more latitude and give us a better shot at rain

Haven't gotten anything here yet so far lol so who knows if I will or not

[Pas_Bon]

I got snow today in League City

[Cpv17]

PTC1 is just a huge mess. I’m not even sure we’ll get a name outta it at this point.