June 2024

[brazoriatx]

Ya I think we're all over it now

[tireman4]

All,

Just going to say this. First, this event has not even started. With CAGs they are so unpredictable. We have no idea what will become of the moisture ( deep in the Gulf). Remember, this is an event that can be everchanging. As Wxman 57 says, "Do not focus on the center. Most of the activity is outside the main focus of circulation (if there is one). Never let your guard down. Just my three cents.

[DoctorMu]

Eric Berger 06 18 24

As I said yesterday - it's a below I-10 event.

Models have absolutely struggled with the weak system and initial conditions. Iterations usually suck without them. Another lesson in complexity and chaos theory. We are relegated to Nowcasting. Pay attention to the radar, as the mesos and ensembles have sagged south again.



The blob should move pretty much due west and weaken if the TS intensified, although this is iffy.

[DoctorMu]

This seems like the consensus. 50/50 probability of a bust in CLL. Maybe a stray shower.

[DoctorMu]

All,

Just going to say this. First, this event has not even started. With CAGs they are so unpredictable. We have no idea what will become of the moisture ( deep in the Gulf). Remember, this is an event that can be everchanging. As Wxman 57 says, "Do not focus on the center. Most of the activity is outside the main focus of circulation (if there is one). Never let your guard down. Just my three cents.

As the late great Bruce Lee said: "Do not think. Feeeeeeel!"

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Could see as much as 6 here but probably 3-4. I’ll take it.

[DoctorMu]

Could see as much as 6 here but probably 3-4. I’ll take it.

Houston, Weimar, Corpus, possibly San Antonio should see significant rain beginning late today but mostly tomorrow..

Right now, Baton Rouge and Cajun country are seeing the vast majority of the rain.

[tireman4]

Space Center Weather

[DoctorMu]

Space Center Weather

That looks about right.

[Cpv17]

Space Center Weather

I’d gladly take what that’s showing for me, but I’m not even sure I’m gonna get that much anymore.

[djmike]

That plume of moisture over Louisiana and south of Louisiana ain’t budging!

[tireman4]

Radar Image at 11:45

[Rip76]

Radar Image at 11:45

Almost a mirror image of the radar at 11:45 last night.

[Cpv17]

Radar Image at 11:45

Almost a mirror image of the radar at 11:45 last night.

Lol pretty much.

[tireman4]

Radar Image at 11:45

Almost a mirror image of the radar at 11:45 last night.

Lol pretty much.

You guys are just too much. My goodness. LOL. You realize that the PWATs are near 3. You know the convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. You do know that this is a deep tropical airmass and that training will happen.

[DoctorMu]

Almost a mirror image of the radar at 11:45 last night.

Lol pretty much.

You guys are just too much. My goodness. LOL. You realize that the PWATs are near 3. You know the convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. You do know that this is a deep tropical airmass and that training will happen.

It's going to rain a LOT south of I-10. 90% chance tomorrow in Bayou City. There's a cell heading toward the inner 610 loop now.

[Cpv17]

Almost a mirror image of the radar at 11:45 last night.

Lol pretty much.

You guys are just too much. My goodness. LOL. You realize that the PWATs are near 3. You know the convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. You do know that this is a deep tropical airmass and that training will happen.

I know it’s gonna rain. Just agreeing that the radar presentation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. It’s taking its sweet time getting here and that’s why the flood watch doesn’t start till later this evening.

[Scott747]

The broad low is finally slowly consolidating as it moves towards the n. Unlike last night with the closer proximity we should start to see this bands move in across the coastal counties as the day progresses. While the overall totals might not be what was shown a few days ago, it won't take much to get a few sequences of band after band over the next 24-36 hrs to start adding up the totals in a few spots. Certainly the more implied risk is from Sargent and further s.

High tide in Surfside was already flooding the usual roadways this morning and I'm guessing they will close the beach soon enough.

[Goomba]

Lol pretty much.

You guys are just too much. My goodness. LOL. You realize that the PWATs are near 3. You know the convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. You do know that this is a deep tropical airmass and that training will happen.

I know it’s gonna rain. Just agreeing that the radar presentation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. It’s taking its sweet time getting here and that’s why the flood watch doesn’t start till later this evening.

The Flood Watch started for us in the Beaumont area at 7am today. I might be wrong, but I'm not seeing it.

[Cpv17]

You guys are just too much. My goodness. LOL. You realize that the PWATs are near 3. You know the convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. You do know that this is a deep tropical airmass and that training will happen.

I know it’s gonna rain. Just agreeing that the radar presentation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. It’s taking its sweet time getting here and that’s why the flood watch doesn’t start till later this evening.

The Flood Watch started for us in the Beaumont area at 7am today. I might be wrong, but I'm not seeing it.

Not much need for a flood watch to be issued in Beaumont. Y’all probably aren’t going to get much there. Maybe 1-3”.