2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Cpv17]

TheAustinMan on Storm2K brought up Tropical Storm Arlene in 1993. I agree, we could see something similar.

[don]

TheAustinMan on Storm2K brought up Tropical Storm Arlene in 1993. I agree, we could see something similar.

That looks to be a very good analog.

[tireman4]

Matthew Cappucci ( meteorologist)

[tireman4]

Satellite Image

[Cpv17]

We’ll have to watch next weekend for another possible system to impact the area.

[Pas_Bon]

We’ll have to watch next weekend for another possible system to impact the area.

Yep. Potentially….the ole 1-2 right in the kisser.
I am much more concerned about next weekend’s potential system than I am this one imminently closing in (and I’m concerned about this one vis-a-vis flooding).

[Ptarmigan]

TheAustinMan on Storm2K brought up Tropical Storm Arlene in 1993. I agree, we could see something similar.

I was thinking that too.

[Cpv17]

The NHC tagged it. It’s now invest 91L.

[tireman4]

Recon Mission 06 17 24

[tireman4]

Alex Boreham 06 17 24

[tireman4]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week. In
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Interests
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Cpv17]

Interesting run of the 12z Euro.

[tireman4]

Looks like we’re starting to see the beginning stages of TCG with #91L located in the BoC this afternoon. Vigorous MLC apparent & some banding starting to form on the southern side of the system. Will be interesting to watch trends over the next 12-18 hours. #tropics #wx pic.twitter.com/v1xFF83hp6
-- Treyce Jones (@TreyceJonesWX) June 17, 2024

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 same thing with the GFS , there could be more of a weakness over the north- western gulf to draw a 2nd system more to the north or NW

[tireman4]

Pete Cavlin 06 17 24

[tireman4]

From Wxman 57 at S2K..

Just a trof axis found by the plane, as I expected. These monsoonal gyres take a long time to organize. It may have a couple of circulation centers tomorrow. Models are all over the place with the one or two centers. Will be hard to get more than 40 kts out of it. Main threat is rain. I'd be surprised if the NHC didn't issue PTC One advisories over the next hour. It's within 48 hours of taking TS wind to near the coast.

[Stratton20]

The 2nd system on models is starting to really get interesting

[Cpv17]

The 2nd system on models is starting to really get interesting

The NHC is already giving it a 20% chance of development this far out. I’m honestly surprised we already have a lemon for it.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I mean look at the GFS and Euro, they both start to develop it in the 96-120 hour period which in weather terms, definitely isnt far out, that’s probably why they pulled the trigger on it so fast