Remnants of Lisa in East Atlantic

Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:52 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009181249
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010091812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010091712, , BEST, 0, 121N, 246W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091718, , BEST, 0, 122N, 252W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091800, , BEST, 0, 123N, 257W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091806, , BEST, 0, 125N, 262W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091812, , BEST, 0, 128N, 267W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Code: Select all

331 
WHXX01 KWBC 181252
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC SAT SEP 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100918 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100918  1200   100919  0000   100919  1200   100920  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  26.7W   13.7N  28.2W   14.8N  29.6W   15.8N  30.8W
BAMD    12.8N  26.7W   13.5N  28.3W   14.3N  29.5W   15.4N  30.1W
BAMM    12.8N  26.7W   13.6N  28.0W   14.4N  29.4W   15.5N  30.5W
LBAR    12.8N  26.7W   13.3N  27.8W   14.3N  28.9W   15.5N  29.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100920  1200   100921  1200   100922  1200   100923  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  32.0W   18.9N  33.7W   19.8N  36.5W   20.5N  40.4W
BAMD    16.5N  30.2W   18.4N  29.5W   19.4N  26.7W   21.3N  23.7W
BAMM    16.6N  31.1W   18.5N  31.4W   19.7N  30.7W   20.2N  30.8W
LBAR    16.8N  30.1W   19.6N  31.0W   22.9N  30.8W   26.2N  29.2W
SHIP        46KTS          53KTS          47KTS          39KTS
DSHP        46KTS          53KTS          47KTS          39KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  26.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 =  25.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  24.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  135NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Sat Sep 18, 2010 10:32 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:32 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:47 pm

GFDL Intensity Prediction

I think 94L could be Tropical Depression 14 by tomorrow. It would be Lisa.

Code: Select all

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:41 pm

Looks like we have Lisa...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942010_al142010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009210005
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2010, DB, O, 2010091812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL142010
AL, 14, 2010091712, , BEST, 0, 121N, 246W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 14, 2010091718, , BEST, 0, 122N, 252W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 14, 2010091800, , BEST, 0, 134N, 259W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 14, 2010091806, , BEST, 0, 138N, 267W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 14, 2010091812, , BEST, 0, 141N, 274W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 135, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 14, 2010091818, , BEST, 0, 144N, 281W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 135, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 14, 2010091900, , BEST, 0, 147N, 289W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 14, 2010091906, , BEST, 0, 149N, 297W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010091912, , BEST, 0, 151N, 304W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010091918, , BEST, 0, 153N, 310W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010092000, , BEST, 0, 156N, 316W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010092006, , BEST, 0, 159N, 318W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 161N, 319W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 320W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 167N, 320W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:01 pm

Looking good.

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:08 pm

NHC has not issued advisories yet, but should do so soon.

Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:34 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 31.9W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:06 am

Say Good Morning to Tropical Storm Lisa ........

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA...TWELFTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 31.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST. LISA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210855
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU
OVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LISA FILLING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A RATHER SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. BY DAY 2...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.7N 31.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 31.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.4N 31.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 18.7N 31.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 19.0N 32.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.8N 34.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 35.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 37.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:42 am

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU
OVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LISA FILLING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A RATHER SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. BY DAY 2...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.7N 31.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 31.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.4N 31.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 18.7N 31.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 19.0N 32.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.8N 34.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 35.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 37.0W 45 KT

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:05 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...LISA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 31.7W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Fri Sep 24, 2010 7:20 pm

Lisa came a long way. It comes to show that predicting intensity is very difficult. Julia and Lisa showed that. Also, Lisa is a very small storm.

Remnants of Lisa in East Atlantic

Who is online