Keep in mind that the low is projected to move WNW, taking the shield toward the WNW.
We'll see.
June 2024
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Stratton20
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ICON 18z comes just north of brownsville, has a strange biacy to cut off heavy totals from coming on shore, 10-15 inches off shore of se texas, but those could easily be in land, weird model lol
The ICON has always had that issue with TC's I don't look at it for rainfall totals because of that bias.Stratton20 wrote: ↑ ICON 18z comes just north of brownsville, has a strange biacy to cut off heavy totals from coming on shore, 10-15 inches off shore of se texas, but those could easily be in land, weird model lol
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Stratton20
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18z GFS shows 6-8 inches for houston, big bullseye of 10-15 to the SW and toward the hill country
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Stratton20
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18z GEFS ensemble mean for se texas rainfall is 6-8 inches, thats pretty aggressive even for an ensemble!
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Man that would be beneficial for the hill country.
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Stratton20
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18z Euro is very weird, delays landfall in NE mexico until thursday and is still over the water at 7 am, kinda just stalls the low and does a few loops, weird, but could be something to watch if other models start showing that
Dr. Levi Cowan mentions in his video the possibility that the center could reform to the north off the Texas coast.He also mentions that topical storm conditions are possible for Texas regardless of development due to the tight gradient between the storm and high pressure to the northeast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VII-M62LgDs
https://x.com/i/status/1802463571575800253
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VII-M62LgDs
https://x.com/i/status/1802463571575800253
Last edited by don on Sun Jun 16, 2024 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
South and West is the Meso trend. Good for the Hill Country, Victoria, etc.
Wow, that’s quite a signal on the 18z GEFS. Highest signal for rain I’ve seen yet from any ensemble run.
Ensembles are still bringing the QPF:
Yeah, you just beat me to it. A robust solution for SETX, especially areas that saw less rain this spring. CLL would still get a lot and add to our 38.85 inch total for the year. Within an inch of the yearly average. We'll be likely over the yearly level at six months!
Yikes! Look at that huge rainshield moving inland on the 0Z HRRR.
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The Germans need to stick to making great cars. Loldon wrote: ↑Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:13 pmThe ICON has always had that issue with TC's I don't look at it for rainfall totals because of that bias.Stratton20 wrote: ↑ ICON 18z comes just north of brownsville, has a strange biacy to cut off heavy totals from coming on shore, 10-15 inches off shore of se texas, but those could easily be in land, weird model lol
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Stratton20
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It might just be me, but it appears the 00z NAM is attempting to stall this system…. Right off the lower texas coast, very erradic movement
Big shift north.The 0Z NAM likes the idea of a center relocation to the northern vorticity, and has torrential rain bands and wind moving into SE Texas.
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I wouldn't rule out a moderate tropical storm. Maybe something around 55mph-60mph if this system starts to tighten once it gets closer to the coast.As we've seen many times.