June 2024

[brazoriatx]

Any new talk on the other " something" that's suppose to come after this?

[Stratton20]

Its too early to tell about that, but the euro, GFS, and CMC all have another system in the western gulf several days after this one, just something to watch

[don]

Models still show the next storm, but there are still many questions with how the first storm will pan out.That I'm not even going to touch on the second storm yet. LOL

[Stratton20]

Yep details remain on that 2nd system , however the concern is that this first system leaves a weakness over texas in the ridge, potentially allowing for that 2nd “ system to come here, the euro and CMC show this

[869MB]

Looking ahead, based upon what I’m seeing from the EFS & GEFS ensembles, the chances of lower pressures occurring in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Coast States appear to continue through the end of June. I’m making this assumption based upon the higher height anomalies depicted to occur over the NE US & SE Canada during the long range.

Now does this mean more tropical development in the Gulf and/or Caribbean in the long term? Not necessarily, it just means conditions may be more favorable for continued rain chances anywhere along the Gulf Coast States with continued favorable conditions for development of any tropical system accordingly in the long term.


For example, this the GEFS depiction of 500mb height anomalies for Tuesday evening during our forecasted heavy rain event. Notice the exceptionally higher 500mb Height anomalies over the NE US & SE Canada…

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Now take note of the GEFS very long range 500mb Height Anomalies depiction on Monday July 1st below. You’ll notice that’s not too far off from its depiction of the height anomalies for next week. So does this mean we’re guaranteed a heavy rain events with possible tropical development through the end of June into the beginning of July? Once again, not necessarily, especially basing forecasts all the way through to hour 384. It just means, if the long range ensembles are correct with this Height depiction, then the chances of rain may continue along the Gulf Coast States anywhere from Texas to Florida with chances of tropical storm development in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean a possibility throughout this time frame.

Again, be mindful this depiction could easily change altogether and the higher height anomalies may set up over Texas and the Southern Plains again like last summer…But as of today, the ensembles are not depicting this scenario playing out any time soon.

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[don]

0Z HRRR also has the piece of energy the GFS is seeing.

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[don]

(0Z NAM) Pretty much looks like the GFS with a tight gradient producing tropical storm force winds off the Texas coast.With a big area of precip moving inland.The system has a subtropical look to it with the highest winds and rain displaced far away from the COC.With mini vorticities rotating around a broad low helping to push heavy rain and gusty winds inland.

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[DoctorMu]

Bullseyes come and go, but there's going to be some rain on the dirty side of an open COC. We shall see where and how much. It's very hard to predict at the granular level.

[DoctorMu]

Looking ahead, based upon what I’m seeing from the EFS & GEFS ensembles, the chances of lower pressures occurring in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Coast States appear to continue through the end of June. I’m making this assumption based upon the higher height anomalies depicted to occur over the NE US & SE Canada during the long range.

Now does this mean more tropical development in the Gulf and/or Caribbean in the long term? Not necessarily, it just means conditions may be more favorable for continued rain chances anywhere along the Gulf Coast States with continued favorable conditions for development of any tropical system accordingly in the long term.


For example, this the GEFS depiction of 500mb height anomalies for Tuesday evening during our forecasted heavy rain event. Notice the exceptionally higher 500mb Height anomalies over the NE US & SE Canada…


IMG_2051.png



Now take note of the GEFS very long range 500mb Height Anomalies depiction on Monday July 1st below. You’ll notice that’s not too far off from its depiction of the height anomalies for next week. So does this mean we’re guaranteed a heavy rain events with possible tropical development through the end of June into the beginning of July? Once again, not necessarily, especially basing forecasts all the way through to hour 384. It just means, if the long range ensembles are correct with this Height depiction, then the chances of rain may continue along the Gulf Coast States anywhere from Texas to Florida with chances of tropical storm development in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean a possibility throughout this time frame.

Again, be mindful this depiction could easily change altogether and the higher height anomalies may set up over Texas and the Southern Plains again like last summer…But as of today, the ensembles are not depicting this scenario playing out any time soon.



IMG_2052.png

The GoM Express Lane is open for business from Gyres to 18 wheelers to CAT5s in theory.

[don]

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[don]

The ICON (posted above) is showing a scenario where the northern vorticity completely takes over and becomes the COC, basically a center relocation.Cant rule out that scenario either.

[Cpv17]

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That scenario would really bring in a ton of rain.

[jasons2k]

Sheared slopfest incoming.

[don]

0Z GFS... Yikes! Torrential rain all night Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday.

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[Cpv17]

0Z GFS... Yikes! Torrential rain all night Tuesday


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Well Don, we can’t let you leave without experiencing another flood.

[don]

0Z GFS QPF The GFS has been showing this scenario for several days now, it backed off from it for a few runs but it came back last night.

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[don]

0Z GFS... Yikes! Torrential rain all night Tuesday


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Well Don, we can’t let you leave without experiencing another flood.

LOL I just hope this doesn't end up being too crazy.


The 0Z CMC has caved to the GFS...

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[Stratton20]

Don and those are just the global models, globals tend to underestimate rain fall, just imagine what the mesocale runs might show once they are in range

[don]

Don and those are just the global models, globals tend to underestimate rain fall, just imagine what the mesocale runs might show once they are in range

Yes, it will be interesting to see what the mesoscale models show once more in range starting tomorrow.Its been a long time since we've had a heavy rainfall event with this much potential with the system being so large and messy and the strongest winds being displaced from the center. I think there is a good chance that we would be put under Tropical Storm warnings if the system gets classified.I think atleast a PTC classification is likely at this point.


0Z GFS/0Z CMC

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[Cpv17]

I’m expecting a pretty big increase in QPF across the area on the next update from the WPC. I also expect to see a moderate risk for excessive flooding being put out as well. Tonight’s 0z Euro run will be interesting.