June 2024

[don]

0Z EURO

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[Pas_Bon]

I am very, very worried about our friends in the Golden Triangle and points N and NE of the metro area that have been absolutely sloshed with rain the past several weeks. Here in Galveston Co., I think we can handle a good several inches before things get really bad (we haven’t gotten near the rain others have this Spring).

On top of that, I worry we will have to deal with repurcussions of the next system.

I have a gut feeling that we will see wave after wave after wave form in the tropical Atlantic for quite some time. I hope I’m wrong.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro AIFS remains locked in on a texas landfall, just a touch north of baffin bay

[Andrew]

The trend overnight has been away from an organized system tracking into Southern Mexico and more of a broad trough axis with multiple disturbances rotating into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The heavy rainfall threat will definitely increase for Texas and Louisiana if this trend continues. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some strong vort maxes pushing through with a deep moisture fetch extending from the Western Caribbean. Monitoring for MCS development will be key over the next week as that will be the primary threat for a flooding risk.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is the wind shear map.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

The conditions are not really favorable for tropical development.

[don]

I am very, very worried about our friends in the Golden Triangle and points N and NE of the metro area that have been absolutely sloshed with rain the past several weeks. Here in Galveston Co., I think we can handle a good several inches before things get really bad (we haven’t gotten near the rain others have this Spring).

On top of that, I worry we will have to deal with repurcussions of the next system.

I have a gut feeling that we will see wave after wave after wave form in the tropical Atlantic for quite some time. I hope I’m wrong.

Not just the Golden Triangle metro Houston has received a lot of rain also with many areas of Harris county along and north of I-10 receiving 10-15 inches of rain in May.

Screenshot 2024-06-15 at 12-54-06 National Water Predic[...].png

[Rip76]

I know that we've had plenty here in the Woodlands over the past few months.

[don]

Looking more and more like the ICON is on the right track.Global models have trended weaker with the southern COC .Allowing vorticity further north to become more dominate. Whether that northern vorticty gets organized enough to become a TC is another story.Regardless of development a very heavy rainfall event is becoming more of a possible scenario.Stay weather aware

12Z GFS ( I think you'll like this map more cpv17)

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[don]

12Z EURO

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[Stratton20]

closer look at the GFS 12z rainfall out put, man thats alot! Gotta have to see where this bullseye ends up, that is very concerning

[djmike]

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[DoctorMu]

Let the strawberry lemonade pour!

[Stratton20]

As the week progresses i wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see even a moderate risk of excessive rainfall is issued, mesoscale models are going to be very interesting

[don]

As the week progresses i wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see even a moderate risk of excessive rainfall is issued, mesoscale models are going to be very interesting

I actually think a moderate risk is likely, and a high risk is possible for somewhere in Texas IF the current trends continue.Complex forecast this week.

[DoctorMu]

There will be rain. Diffuse system FTW. Locations and amounts can and will change.

[don]

The GFS shows wind gust approaching 50 mph in the metro.With gust over 50mph at the coast. FWIW

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[Stratton20]

18z ICON- South Texas, also slower to clear out the rain bands, rain doesnt pull out until early friday , thats a good 72-96 hours of heavy rain at times

[don]

18Z GFS continues the trend with the core of rain and wind displaced from the COC.Kinda subtropical in nature.

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[Stratton20]

It keeps showing a max bullseye of 20-25 inches somewhere between central and se texas, most should see 5-8 inches widespread, but if that bullseye verifies, someone could see major flooding, where that bullseye sets up though is the million dollar question

[Cpv17]

Channel 13 forecast just said 2-5” for most of southeast Texas and 4-8”+ near the coast. I guess they’re going by WPC QPF map. I feel like that could bust badly.