2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 models do suggest an anti cyclone could develop over the western gulf, especially in the BOC, that could really help a system out

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS is even more aggressive with the BOC system with more stronger members, I think their will be a weakness over texas at the same time due to the first tropical wave moving inland, mexico/ texas need to watch this closely

[Pas_Bon]

As of 11:20pm, the GFS and ICON are the only 00z runs that have updated. They both show an organized tropical system (Tropical Storm) in the Western Gulf on June 18th.

I think the signal for something forming is definitely there. Now we play the waiting game to see if other models fall in line. The landfall prognostications should begin in earnest by the weekend.

[don]

The GFS has been showing a Monsoonal Depression. Notice the MASSIVE area along the Mexico ,Texas, and Louisiana coast of high precipitable waters and rain. That's a classic look of a Monsoonal Depression which Gyres are known for producing. (Tropical storm Frances of 1998 is an example of a monsoonal TC)

Screenshot 2024-06-11 at 23-27-38 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2024-06-11 at 23-27-45 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

[Stratton20]

Don the GFS also has a weak back door front moving in, combine a monsoonal depression and a weak front, thats just asking for trouble

[don]

Monsoonal Depressions/Storms are known for having massive rain shields and widespread flooding.Not saying that's going to happen though,just something to pay attention to.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the 00z CMC tries to keep the moisture confined well to our south as a heat ridge builds over he state, euro will be interesting

[Cpv17]

There’s still a decent chance we get nothing at all here in SETX.

[Stratton20]

We now have a in the BOC, shear is pretty low in that region, this will be an interesting one to watch

[Cpv17]

We now have a in the BOC, shear is pretty low in that region, this will be an interesting one to watch

If it forms down there where they have it circled it’ll probably go into Mexico, but if it forms in the SW Caribbean like some ensembles show, then it’ll probably come our way as something decently strong.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah, ive been cautioning some folks that already have said this is going into mexico, its going to be tricky with the CAG circulation as that energy could get lulled on either side of the yucatan peninsula , either way that moisture is coming here, but interesting to see the stronger members on every ensemble are taking a track more toward texas

[Cpv17]

After taking a look at the EPS and GEFS, there’s strong support for a system to develop. Now will it go to Mexico or Texas is the question. Right now it’s looking like Mexico with Texas still in play.

[Cpv17]

SST’s in the Gulf are something else right now:





Of course this is just one piece of the puzzle though, but it’s definitely an important one.

[Pas_Bon]

After taking a look at the EPS and GEFS, there’s strong support for a system to develop. Now will it go to Mexico or Texas is the question. Right now it’s looking like Mexico with Texas still in play.

Rhode Island

[Cpv17]

Of course we have to get a COC to form first. Depending where that forms will have big implications on where it goes.

[Stratton20]

12z models are lame, however their is major disagreement between the GFS and its ensembles even in the 4-5 day period, more of the ensemble members on the 18z rub so far through hour 102 are favoring the NW caribbean for development of the low, completely different from the OP run

[mcheer23]

EURO has a few ensemble members approaching the TX coast next weekend FWIW..

[brazoriatx]

Ya, but 57 already called it so it's over lol south of tampico..just some increased moisture for us..no biggie

[Stratton20]

brazoriatx its not over lol, he knows its still very much early in the game, alot can change considering we still are 7-8 days out

[Cpv17]

Ya, but 57 already called it so it's over lol south of tampico..just some increased moisture for us..no biggie

And you believe him?