2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[don]

Theirs enough "noise" from the models to me to put a "Bears watch" on the Gulf next week for potential homebrew activity.

[DoctorMu]

The Gulf will generate something. We may get some lite lemonade. Euro and GFS pound Florida with a foot of rain.

A lot can change, but I think without Death Ridge formation we'll have some favorable conditions with a vast amount of bath water in the GoM.

[Cpv17]

Theirs enough "noise" from the models to me to put a "Bears watch" on the Gulf next week for potential homebrew activity.

I agree, but I’d like to see more support from the EPS first.

[Stratton20]

Im especially watching considering the upper level pattern showing up on the ensembles, big ridge showing up over the SE US, which could help steer whatever potential develops in the general direction of the Western gulf, Louisiana or texas or even mexico etc.

[Stratton20]

Massive increase in support from the 00z EPS! Wowza! Getting with in 7-8 days now as well

[Stratton20]

Euro does trend stronger with a more sharp wave axis that does generally move toward the texas coast, has some more energy that gets pulled into the BOC due to the CAG and develops a closed low

[Cpv17]

It looks like the CMC is trying to develop something in the same place as the 12z Euro was down in the BOC.

[Cpv17]

Pretty decent increase in support on the 0z GEFS.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro with a tropical storm down in the BOC around day 9 to 10.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Also gives us some really heavy rain totals from the first tropical wave , also with the weakness created by the wave on that run, that would leave the door open for a system to get drawn northward out of the BOC

[Pas_Bon]

Things seem to be coalescing for some form of tropical landfall around SE Texas.
At this point, it would be prudent to expect tropical formation 2nd half of June, which is exactly what some models seemed to pick up on early on. Thats impressive.

I think we will be looking at heavy rain event for E/SE Texas. I’m worried about our neighbors up in E Texas. None of them need any more rain.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall 06 10 24

[Stratton20]

We could have multiple things to watch over the next 10-14 days, very active GEFS, and GFS now joining the Euro and CMC with development in the BOC in the 7-10 day window, i see potentially a very very wet next several weeks across se texas

[tireman4]

From the Eyewall 06 11 24

Avid model watchers will note the sub-960 mb low that emerged in the Gulf of Mexico on a couple GFS operational model runs yesterday. Suffice to say there is little to no support for that particular outcome from any other weather model. And, in fact, the last two GFS model runs did not contain that feature. As a reminder, that is a normal GFS June bias to explode tropical systems unnecessarily strong in the Gulf. Bottom line: We offer it little to no credibility.

That being said, there does continue to be support for broad low pressure somewhere in the western Gulf of Mexico next week.

[Cpv17]

12z ICON is onboard with development, but it looks like it’s going to Mexico. CMC and GFS up next.

[Pas_Bon]

12z ICON is onboard with development, but it looks like it’s going to Mexico. CMC and GFS up next.

Actually, it looks like it has it starting to hug the coast heading NNE at the end of the run.
I'm not buying any of it.

[Cpv17]

12z ICON is onboard with development, but it looks like it’s going to Mexico. CMC and GFS up next.

Actually, it looks like it has it starting to hug the coast heading NNE at the end of the run.
I'm not buying any of it.

I never believe any models more than 5 days out.

[tireman4]

Tropical Update

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S. (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during
the next day or so and move offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast
later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally unfavorable, although some slow development is possible
when the system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is already occuring and is expected
to continue across portions of Florida during the next few days.
For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction
Center and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Weather Prediction Center products can be found at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast
information can be found at www.weather.gov

Forecaster Kelly

[Cpv17]

The 12z GEFS has quite a few members that want to develop something and send it towards the western Gulf. A few of the members are on the stronger side.