June 2024

[DoctorMu]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz kind of weekend weatherwise. Monday and Tuesday will bring a chance of rain into the area.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The short term forecast will continue to be a dry quiet one with
high pressure as the main weather feature. Ridging aloft will be
shifting east (from far W TX) across SE TX and then the northern
Gulf coast these next couple of days. At the surface, high pres-
sure lingering over the region will help to keep winds generally
light and variable. Overall, this should translate to a continu-
ation of the warm no-rain weather that has been in place over SE
TX as we end the week and head into the weekend. Highs are going
to be in the lower to mid 90s each day with lows in the lower to
mid 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A breakdown of the prevailing synoptic regime is expected by
Sunday as surface high pressure drifts towards the Eastern Gulf.
Meanwhile, 500mb flow transitions to a more zonal pattern,
allowing a series of weak shortwaves to move through the area over
the following several days. This pattern shift will bring us our
next chance of widespread rainfall as we head into next week, with
rainfall chances remaining in the forecast through at least mid-
week.

By Monday, a cold front extending from a surface low over the
Northeastern CONUS will push through the Southern Plains and
arrive in SE TX during the evening hours. With widespread deep
moisture availability (total PWs of approximately 1.75 to 2.0
in), the approaching boundary should bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and evening hours. The
potential for severe weather will be limited by bulk wind shear
values (~25 kt) and relatively marginal SBCAPE values for most
locations (~800-1200 J/kg). Recent GFS run does take the boundary
all the way to the coast, a departure from yesterday`s solution.
The EC, on the other hand, continues to stall the boundary across
portions of the northern zones. Rainfall chances on Tuesday and
Wednesday will ultimately be tied to the position of the
boundary, with a stalled boundary over land favoring more
widespread precipitation as a series of shortwaves traverse the
area just to our north. For the time being, the severe weather
risk associated with this pattern remains low.

Look for highs to continue to remain mostly in the lower 90s
throughout the duration of next week, with overnight lows sitting
mainly in the lower to mid 70s. With dew point values continuing
to sit in the upper 60s/low 70s, we`ll likely be just under Heat
Advisory thresholds as things currently stand. That being said,
continued hot and humid weather next week will still require some
safety actions like remaining hydrated and applying sunscreen.

Cady

&&

[DoctorMu]

Interesting. In the long term forecasts, the GFS, CMC, and Euro bring tropical flow into Texas the week after next. Looks like in the form of lemonade. The best kind with lack of injurious TS development.

[Cromagnum]

Gonna be warm but no bad weather for my offshore fishing trip tomorrow. Looking forward to this one.

[Cpv17]

Latest CPC forecast looks promising for rain!!

[Pas_Bon]

Gonna be warm but no bad weather for my offshore fishing trip tomorrow. Looking forward to this one.

Jelly. Favorite hobby. Haven’t been in way too long.

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, I think we might be seeing even more catastrophic flooding in E Texas if all this recently modeled tropical moisture pans out. Eyes peeled.

[tireman4]

467
FXUS64 KHGX 071949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

With the high pressure over our area, expect some more hot and dry
weather for both today and tomorrow. With these conditions, our
winds will be light and variable. Patchy fog is possible early
Saturday morning but no other precipitation is predicted. In terms
of temperature, prepare for another hot couple of days with highs in
the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Please make sure to stay safe
and cool while enjoying the rain-free weekend ahead!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The ridging that has dominated the Texas atmosphere this week is
expected to break down on Sunday into Monday with a building ridge
across western CONUS. This will gradually transition our pattern
into a northwest flow regime aloft, with shortwaves and vort
maxes embedded in the flow. With plentiful PWAT and typical
summertime LL instability in place, this would set the stage for
another unsettled pattern. Though coastal and offshore
showers/storms are possible as early as Sunday, most areas don`t
see their PoPs increase until Monday. We will need to monitor a
potential backdoor cold front on Monday. However, there is
uncertainty regarding whether or not the front will make it down
into our region. Showers/thunderstorms are possible even if the
front doesn`t make it into our CWA. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are
generally 20-40%, with the highest PoPs along and east of I-45.
The current PoPs for Wednesday (~30%) may be conservative given
that global models are showing a positive tilted trough digging SW
into the ArkLaTex region.

It is worth mentioning that these NW flow patterns can result in
strong to severe thunderstorm activity that is difficult to
predict, especially in regards to timing. So as we head into next
week, it would be wise to keep up with the forecast and remain
weather aware in case the severe weather risk increases. Regarding
temperatures, high temperatures in the long range are expected to
average in the low 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. These
temperatures are pretty typical for early-mid June.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Expect some relatively calm wind speeds ranging from 0-10kts and
a direction that varies throughout the period. Mostly clear skies
with only a few high clouds possible. There will be some light
misting occuring around 10z, however this should not have a strong
impact on visibility.

Thompson/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow and low seas are expected to
dominate the marine forecast through much of next week. However,
there will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and beyond as the pattern becomes more unsettled. Therefore, we
could not rule out locally higher winds and seas in or near any
thunderstorm next week. We will need to monitor an approaching
frontal boundary from the north / northeast on Monday. A brief
period of offshore winds along with a higher chance of
thunderstorms would occur if the front pushed far enough south.
However, there is uncertainty regarding whether or not the front
will make it this far south.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 95 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 88 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self

[DoctorMu]

Give me some NW flow all summer! I'll risk the severe stuff which will lessen as the temp differential up and down the tropospheric column decrease in the summer. If you want hail in June or July, Colorado is the place.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Super Regional in CS tomorrow is going to be STIIIIICKY!

Here’s to the Left Coast Ducks wilting in the Texas heat. I’ll be in Aggie Alley several bourbons deep!

[jasons2k]

We took a quick trip to Austin and you can tell the slight bit less humidity makes a big difference.

It’s still gonna be awhile on the tropics but once it starts it will be a switch.

On a side note, about a month ago we randomly started a no-alcohol challenge after Cinco de Mayo to get in better ‘summer shape’ for an upcoming trip to Mexico. We didn’t drink much to begin with but I gotta say, going 100% alcohol free makes you feel great. I didn’t realize it until we tried it. A side benefit is I’m already almost completely weaned off my blood pressure medication just from this. Crazy.

We’re now motivated to pass on the drinks on our trip and do sunrise beachside yoga instead of ‘recovering’ ‘in bed. We’re just gonna keep going…cheers to health.

[Cpv17]

We took a quick trip to Austin and you can tell the slight bit less humidity makes a big difference.

It’s still gonna be awhile on the tropics but once it starts it will be a switch.

On a side note, about a month ago we randomly started a no-alcohol challenge after Cinco de Mayo to get in better ‘summer shape’ for an upcoming trip to Mexico. We didn’t drink much to begin with but I gotta say, going 100% alcohol free makes you feel great. I didn’t realize it until we tried it. A side benefit is I’m already almost completely weaned off my blood pressure medication just from this. Crazy.

We’re now motivated to pass on the drinks on our trip and do sunrise beachside yoga instead of ‘recovering’ ‘in bed. We’re just gonna keep going…cheers to health.

I don’t drink much to begin with, personally. If I go out to eat I like to order a drink or two, usually a margarita. Then on family gatherings I’ll drink a few, but not to the point where I’m gonna get drunk. Never been big on drinking. I probably drank more before I was 21 then after lol I’ve also never smoked anything before either and plan to keep it that way.

[DoctorMu]

We took a quick trip to Austin and you can tell the slight bit less humidity makes a big difference.

It’s still gonna be awhile on the tropics but once it starts it will be a switch.

On a side note, about a month ago we randomly started a no-alcohol challenge after Cinco de Mayo to get in better ‘summer shape’ for an upcoming trip to Mexico. We didn’t drink much to begin with but I gotta say, going 100% alcohol free makes you feel great. I didn’t realize it until we tried it. A side benefit is I’m already almost completely weaned off my blood pressure medication just from this. Crazy.

We’re now motivated to pass on the drinks on our trip and do sunrise beachside yoga instead of ‘recovering’ ‘in bed. We’re just gonna keep going…cheers to health.

I don’t drink much to begin with, personally. If I go out to eat I like to order a drink or two, usually a margarita. Then on family gatherings I’ll drink a few, but not to the point where I’m gonna get drunk. Never been big on drinking. I probably drank more before I was 21 then after lol I’ve also never smoked anything before either and plan to keep it that way.

I drank a boatful in college. I haven't had the desire to drink much since then.

But when I do, it's a boat drink.

[DoctorMu]

Models and Ensembles all have a tropical wave or disturbance visiting the west coast of Florida in a week. Dumps a foot of rain.

[tireman4]

Saturday Highlights

[Stratton20]

Noaa 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks look great for rain! That also includes the possibility of some gulf mischief/ tropical moisture getting funneled this way

[don]

Models are actually splitting up the energy in the Gulf next week.A piece of the wave splits and goes towards Florida due to a trough in the northeast creating a weakness.Some energy from the wave gets left behind in the gulf gets "trapped" under the ridge and pushes towards the Texas coast after the 15th as "lemonade" as DoctorMu likes to say .Bears watching as things can change though.

[DoctorMu]

I certainly like AI-Euro's solution for next weekend. This "Siri" has potential.

[Pas_Bon]

It’s ^%#ing hot outside. Lol
Took my son to the beach in Galveston today. Is it November yet?

[Cpv17]

It’s ^%#ing hot outside. Lol
Took my son to the beach in Galveston today. Is it November yet?

I’ve been to several beaches along the Texas coastline, from South Padre Island down in Brownsville to Galveston, and my fav beach was Port Aransas. I thought S. Padre was gonna be better, but when I went there it wasn’t much better than Galveston tbh.

[Stratton20]

Herzog mentions possible tropical development and how the low could move toward texas, seems like its starting to pick up some traction in the meteorological community