2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 no kidding. about the Euro, by the time hanna was a hurricane, the euro still thought it was a depression LOL! But thats what i am concerned about this season, with it being potentially extremely active, globals models whiffing on development is something i am at least somewhat concerned about

[Stratton20]

Well the GFS is certainly not letting up on potential development next week, last couple of runs have been more focused in the central- western gulf, not that it means too much right now, but definitely getting my interest especially since noaa has acknowledged this development potential in their global outlook

[tireman4]

https://theeyewall.com/are-model-shenan ... realistic/

[Cpv17]

I still don’t see anything worth talking about yet. The EPS doesn’t have much of a signal for anything yet. I think in a couple weeks things will start to get active though.

[Cpv17]

These are my predictions for this season. Anyone else, feel free to chime in with yours.

22-27 NS
12-16 Hurricanes
5-8 Majors

[Stratton20]

Euro has a weak closed low or very strong tropical wave sitting off the texas coast, thats why i wouldnt say this is going to florida yet, 500 mb height pattern on model guidance has changed a lot over the past 24-48 hours

[Cpv17]

That’s a scary steering pattern setting up on the EPS as we head into mid/late June… yikes!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Whats it show?

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Whats it show?

[Stratton20]

Yikes! That is a very interesting setup

[Pas_Bon]

Cpv17 Whats it show?

F%#}

[Stratton20]

Only 5 days into the hurricane season and the general public is already calling it a bust oh id love to see the look on their faces once we flip the switch in the basins and that steering pattern on the EPS verifies

[Pas_Bon]

Only 5 days into the hurricane season and the general public is already calling it a bust oh id love to see the look on their faces once we flip the switch in the basins and that steering pattern on the EPS verifies

A) general public is appallingly impatient
B) general public is remarkably ignorant
C) general public doesn’t give a flip about steering currents
D) general public will whine and cry saying no one prepared them
E) it doesn't matter how often or how loud we preach it…..it won’t be received

[Ptarmigan]

Only 5 days into the hurricane season and the general public is already calling it a bust oh id love to see the look on their faces once we flip the switch in the basins and that steering pattern on the EPS verifies

Yogi Berra said this well, "It ain't over till it's over.".

[Stratton20]

The 00z GFS has a sloppy tropical storm approaching the texas coast , euro showing some slight organization of the wave as it gets into the Central to NW gulf

[DoctorMu]

Only 5 days into the hurricane season and the general public is already calling it a bust oh id love to see the look on their faces once we flip the switch in the basins and that steering pattern on the EPS verifies

A) general public is appallingly impatient
B) general public is remarkably ignorant
C) general public doesn’t give a flip about steering currents
D) general public will whine and cry saying no one prepared them
E) it doesn't matter how often or how loud we preach it…..it won’t be received

F) When the CAT 3/4/5 hurricanes hit, Darwin Award Winners will abound.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yup sometimes it takes a powerful one to wake up the ignorant lol

[Stratton20]

00z CMC trends toward the GFS with regards to any sort of CAG development next week, has a weak but closed low/ depression or storm approaching extreme northern mexico or texas fwiw

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 Whats it show?

The Gulf would be open for business.

[Cpv17]

Hmmm, things are beginning to get a bit more interesting today.