2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[tireman4]

The Eyewall 05 28 24

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
6m
Gulf water temps are running 2-3°C above average off the Texas coast, which is likely also significantly aiding in early season heat (especially the high humidity and overnight lows). It’s also a bit troubling for hurricane season.

[Cpv17]

I think the 3rd week of June is in when things could start to get interesting.

[cperk]

I think the 3rd week of June is in when things could start to get interesting.

I think you're right.

[cperk]

In Levi Cowans last video concerning the tropics he mentioned the middle of June is where things start to pick up.

[Rip76]

Well.... here we go.

I didn't see if it was "stickied," anywhere but here is the 2024 HGX Hurricane Preparedness Guide

https://www.h-gac.com/getmedia/417ea081 ... 3VRZ_8tl1i

[tireman4]

The Eyewall

[Stratton20]

GFS seeing possibly some development occurring in the Western Caribbean next week? CMC kinda seeing it as well, weak low pressure forming

[Ptarmigan]

GFS seeing possibly some development occurring in the Western Caribbean next week? CMC kinda seeing it as well, weak low pressure forming

When multiple forecast models have tropical development, it does bear watching. It is always subject to change.

[Cpv17]

My go to model for possible genesis is the EPS. The GEFS is too aggressive imo.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Personally I think the GFS is better with seeing development, and the euro is better with 500 mb height pattern and potential paths that a storm may take, at least thats how it feels like its been the last few seasons with these two models

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Personally I think the GFS is better with seeing development, and the euro is better with 500 mb height pattern and potential paths that a storm may take, at least thats how it feels like its been the last few seasons with these two models

I just go by the ensembles. I don’t really pay much attention to the operationals. When the EPS has a strong signal within 240 hours my interest is piqued.

[Stratton20]

Even though it means nothing, thats the ideal scenario id love to see in the summer for us, weak tropical storm on the 18z GFS making landfall along the middle texas coast, again it means nothing, but thats exactly what i would love to see in the summer, nothing strong, but organized enough to bring widespread heavy rain

[Ptarmigan]

I like to look at all forecast models. It would be nice if there was a quantum computer forecast.

[Pas_Bon]

Wakey, wakey, eggs and bakey

https://i.postimg.cc/kgjHTzDq/IMG-9310.gif

[Cpv17]

Past 7 days I use the EPS. The GEFS is too aggressive and you can’t trust operationals for anything past 7 days.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 you never know, it helps that the MJO will give a favorable boost for development in the region, I think the GEFS is a little too aggressive, but i also think the EPS is under doing it as well,

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 you never know, it helps that the MJO will give a favorable boost for development in the region, I think the GEFS is a little too aggressive, but i also think the EPS is under doing it as well,

When the EPS is onboard then you know it could be real. I really don’t use the Euro for development at all. It’s awful at seeing genesis. After its failure with Hanna a few years ago it lost a lot of points for me. I think it does a decent job with steering, but it sucks for seeing genesis.

[Pas_Bon]

Past 7 days I use the EPS. The GEFS is too aggressive and you can’t trust operationals for anything past 7 days.

I know. Same. It’s just that signals are starting to show themselves.

[Cpv17]

Past 7 days I use the EPS. The GEFS is too aggressive and you can’t trust operationals for anything past 7 days.

I know. Same. It’s just that signals are starting to show themselves.

I’m thinking there will be an active stretch between June 20th-early July.