May 2024

[Cpv17]

Already 92°F here with a heat index of 107°F.

DP 78°.

[DoctorMu]

What will this oncoming set of showers look like when it hits this very rich environment later today...

With high CAPE and DPs of 78°F, and an outflow snowplowing at 55 mph be prepared for uplift and severe weather. Get prepared.

TBH, this outperformed my expectation of arrival, which I thought would be this evening. As mentioned, this may only be Round 1.

[DoctorMu]

Already 92°F here with a heat index of 107°F.

DP 78°.

I think even the coastal areas should get prepared. We'll see.

[Rip76]

Yes, this is coming through much quicker than I first thought.

[don]

A new update from the SPC.

spcd1cat.us_sc (3).png

(342.19 KiB) Downloaded 8566 times

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large
hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across
southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon.
Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop
across west Texas this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast TX/Western LA...
A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has
dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later
today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and
southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable
environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and
bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail
until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore.

[DoctorMu]

Yes, this is coming through much quicker than I first thought.

Yes. Multiple hail cores are forming. It *could* be a rough afternoon for SETX.

[DoctorMu]

A new update from the SPC.



spcd1cat.us_sc (3).png

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large
hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across
southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon.
Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop
across west Texas this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast TX/Western LA...
A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has
dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later
today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and
southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable
environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and
bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail
until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore.

Yeah, the Mesos are continuing to struggle with this elongated severe season. We had 10 minutes of heavy swirling wind and now sideways rain. I forgot my umbrella. Oopsie, and I need to take my wife to an appointment in 15 min. I hope it abates soon.

[tireman4]

Radar at 11:55 am

[tireman4]

From Matt Lanza..
Reports from Huntsville anyone? Radar showing 100 mph winds down to 8,500 feet, but usually that translates to a good bit lower at the surface.

[Texashawk]

Looks like most of the action will be north of I-10, yet again

[tireman4]

Flooding Potential

[tireman4]

Looks like most of the action will be north of I-10, yet again

I would hold off on predictions...

[Cromagnum]

Looks like most of the action will be north of I-10, yet again

Plenty of time to build southwest.

[tireman4]

Radar at 12:25 pm

[tireman4]

Update

[Cromagnum]

This mess is gonna get near the coast at the hottest part of the day. Might get rough.

[DoctorMu]

From Matt Lanza..
Reports from Huntsville anyone? Radar showing 100 mph winds down to 8,500 feet, but usually that translates to a good bit lower at the surface.

Huge core hail center over Huntsville. It looks VERY dark to our east.

[DoctorMu]

lol That was one way to lower the DP. 66°F DP with that outflow and we still have 25-35 mph winds on the backside of the line of showers.

[tireman4]

The line is advancing and then another just pops up. Man, this environment is really rich...moist and unstable...

[Rip76]

I’ve never seen it this dark during a thunderstorm before.

Woodlands