The Texas Boaters' Derecho
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... 86page.htm
The Texas Derecho of 1989
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... igure%201).
The Texas Derecho of 1989 Visualized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICU1qbuzr-E
May 2024
Great reads thank you! I haven't seen these in a while.Ptarmigan wrote: ↑ The Texas Boaters' Derecho
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... 86page.htm
The Texas Derecho of 1989
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... igure%201).
The Texas Derecho of 1989 Visualized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICU1qbuzr-E
Yeah I thought so too because they were in the sweet spot for a derecho event. I should have captured more parameters but I didn’t have time while at work. Also, the high PWS values over the area explains all of the low visibility, blinding rains we saw in conjunction with the high winds.
3 inch/hour rain + hurricane force winds. It was a wonder there weren't more accidents. Maybe because the traffic was moving so slow near rush hour. Welcome to Houston.869MB wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:49 pmYeah I thought so too because they were in the sweet spot for a derecho event. I should have captured more parameters but I didn’t have time while at work. Also, the high PWS values over the area explains all of the low visibility, blinding rains we saw in conjunction with the high winds.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4605
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
305
FXUS64 KHGX 210806
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Warm, humid and hazy conditions will prevail with broad mid-upper
ridging stretching from Mexico & south Texas across the western Gulf
into the Mississippi Valley. Look for daytime highs 88-92F with
overnight lows 74-79F. A somewhat tighter pressure gradient will
lead to 13-20mph during the day and 8-12mph at night.
Though cannot rule out a few isolated sprinkles with saturated low
levels below the cap, mainly in the morning/late night hours,
wouldn`t expect any meaningful or measurable precipitation with
capping holding tough today.
A series of upper impulses riding over the top of the ridge
Wednesday, bring some broken to overcast conditions locally. Further
to our north and west, a dryline and a front serve as a focus for
shra/tsra development. There`s a non-zero chance extreme n/w parts
of the CWA see a rouge, remnant cell try to sneak in Wed evening
before dissipating...but again, chances much above 20% look generous
at this time. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Today is International Tea Day, but given the ongoing period of hot
temperatures (and that we`re in Texas) it might be best to celebrate
it/cool down with a nice cool glass of iced tea. The general pattern
throughout the forecast period continues to be ridging aloft due to
persistent high pressure over northern Mexico. Temperatures will go
on an upward swing over the weekend, and so will the humidity
leading to heat index values well into the 100s. We`ll dive more
into that shortly, but first let`s talk about the ever so slight
chance of rain for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.
With the ridging aloft remaining in place, we`ll have a subsidence
inversion layer around 850-750mb. So, as various shortwaves push
through and generate thunderstorms over north Texas, there is a
slight chance that some may survive long enough to make it to
portions of the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods on Thursday. The
chances are low...but not zero. Elsewhere though, rain chances do
remain essentially zero through the weekend, so we`ll spend the rest
of the discussion talking about heat. Synoptically, we`ll see a
fairly steady pattern of a shortwave passing through the Four
Corners region generating surface low pressure on the lee-side of
the Rockies placing us in its warm sector. This in turn leads to
elevated humidity due to the increased low-level moisture transport.
High temperatures will be in the low 90s on Thursday and Friday with
heat index values generally in the 98-103F range. Over the weekend
is when the heat gets cranked up even more.
Southwesterly flow becomes established at 850mb over the weekend
leading to 850mb temperatures around or greater than the 99th
percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). Some of this warmer air will mix down to
the surface leading to air temperatures reaching the mid 90s for
most locations along and north of I-10. A frontal boundary will be
located to our west over the weekend as well (in association with a
surface low in the Central Plains). This particular boundary will be
fairly close to us leading to climatologically high PW values
ranging from 1.5-1.9" in the afternoons (90th percentile: ~1.80").
When you combine the hotter temperatures with the high humidity, we
get heat index values well into the 100s. It`s too early to lock it
in, but the potential is defintely there for Heat Advisories over
the weekend...especially Sunday and Monday/Memorial Day. We`re still
looking at an upward trend in heat risk as we go from a "Moderate"
risk (level 3 out of 5) on Thursday to a "Major" risk (level 4 out
of 5) from Friday onward. There won`t be much relief during the
overnight hours as low temperatures will only bottom out in the
upper 70s.
Given that a holiday weekend is coming up and I`m sure many of you
have outdoor plans, please be sure to practice heat safety: drink
plenty of water, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear
loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat stroke/heat
exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too
hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.
While Memorial Day (Monday) looks to be the hottest day of the year
so far, this is also the day when rain chances return for a good
chunk of the region. Remember that frontal boundary we talked about
earlier? Well there is fairly decent model agreement that an upper
level low will push far south enough for that boundary to push into
Southeast Texas. This is still seven days out, so there`s a lot of
time for this to change...but even if this does pan out we`re not
looking at anything more than a cooldown of a few degrees.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist this morning then lift into
VFR by late morning & early afternoon. Winds will be somewhat breezy
out of the SE with some gusts over 20kt possible. MVFR ceilings will
again fill back in from south to north during the evening and
overnight hours. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week.
At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to
exercise caution midweek and over the weekend. The persistent
onshore flow may increase the risk of rip currents towards the end
of the week and into the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos
rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood
stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday
morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
- Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)
MINOR//
-------
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 76 91 76 / 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 90 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 79 84 79 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 5 AM CDT early this
morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 210806
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Warm, humid and hazy conditions will prevail with broad mid-upper
ridging stretching from Mexico & south Texas across the western Gulf
into the Mississippi Valley. Look for daytime highs 88-92F with
overnight lows 74-79F. A somewhat tighter pressure gradient will
lead to 13-20mph during the day and 8-12mph at night.
Though cannot rule out a few isolated sprinkles with saturated low
levels below the cap, mainly in the morning/late night hours,
wouldn`t expect any meaningful or measurable precipitation with
capping holding tough today.
A series of upper impulses riding over the top of the ridge
Wednesday, bring some broken to overcast conditions locally. Further
to our north and west, a dryline and a front serve as a focus for
shra/tsra development. There`s a non-zero chance extreme n/w parts
of the CWA see a rouge, remnant cell try to sneak in Wed evening
before dissipating...but again, chances much above 20% look generous
at this time. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Today is International Tea Day, but given the ongoing period of hot
temperatures (and that we`re in Texas) it might be best to celebrate
it/cool down with a nice cool glass of iced tea. The general pattern
throughout the forecast period continues to be ridging aloft due to
persistent high pressure over northern Mexico. Temperatures will go
on an upward swing over the weekend, and so will the humidity
leading to heat index values well into the 100s. We`ll dive more
into that shortly, but first let`s talk about the ever so slight
chance of rain for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.
With the ridging aloft remaining in place, we`ll have a subsidence
inversion layer around 850-750mb. So, as various shortwaves push
through and generate thunderstorms over north Texas, there is a
slight chance that some may survive long enough to make it to
portions of the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods on Thursday. The
chances are low...but not zero. Elsewhere though, rain chances do
remain essentially zero through the weekend, so we`ll spend the rest
of the discussion talking about heat. Synoptically, we`ll see a
fairly steady pattern of a shortwave passing through the Four
Corners region generating surface low pressure on the lee-side of
the Rockies placing us in its warm sector. This in turn leads to
elevated humidity due to the increased low-level moisture transport.
High temperatures will be in the low 90s on Thursday and Friday with
heat index values generally in the 98-103F range. Over the weekend
is when the heat gets cranked up even more.
Southwesterly flow becomes established at 850mb over the weekend
leading to 850mb temperatures around or greater than the 99th
percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). Some of this warmer air will mix down to
the surface leading to air temperatures reaching the mid 90s for
most locations along and north of I-10. A frontal boundary will be
located to our west over the weekend as well (in association with a
surface low in the Central Plains). This particular boundary will be
fairly close to us leading to climatologically high PW values
ranging from 1.5-1.9" in the afternoons (90th percentile: ~1.80").
When you combine the hotter temperatures with the high humidity, we
get heat index values well into the 100s. It`s too early to lock it
in, but the potential is defintely there for Heat Advisories over
the weekend...especially Sunday and Monday/Memorial Day. We`re still
looking at an upward trend in heat risk as we go from a "Moderate"
risk (level 3 out of 5) on Thursday to a "Major" risk (level 4 out
of 5) from Friday onward. There won`t be much relief during the
overnight hours as low temperatures will only bottom out in the
upper 70s.
Given that a holiday weekend is coming up and I`m sure many of you
have outdoor plans, please be sure to practice heat safety: drink
plenty of water, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear
loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat stroke/heat
exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too
hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.
While Memorial Day (Monday) looks to be the hottest day of the year
so far, this is also the day when rain chances return for a good
chunk of the region. Remember that frontal boundary we talked about
earlier? Well there is fairly decent model agreement that an upper
level low will push far south enough for that boundary to push into
Southeast Texas. This is still seven days out, so there`s a lot of
time for this to change...but even if this does pan out we`re not
looking at anything more than a cooldown of a few degrees.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist this morning then lift into
VFR by late morning & early afternoon. Winds will be somewhat breezy
out of the SE with some gusts over 20kt possible. MVFR ceilings will
again fill back in from south to north during the evening and
overnight hours. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week.
At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to
exercise caution midweek and over the weekend. The persistent
onshore flow may increase the risk of rip currents towards the end
of the week and into the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos
rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood
stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday
morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
- Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)
MINOR//
-------
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 76 91 76 / 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 90 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 79 84 79 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 5 AM CDT early this
morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
Was actually a kid fishing on Lake Livingston a year before the 1986 derecho happened. It flipped our John boat over. We got a much bigger fishing boat right after.Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 10:37 pm The Texas Boaters' Derecho
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... 86page.htm
The Texas Derecho of 1989
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... igure%201).
The Texas Derecho of 1989 Visualized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICU1qbuzr-E
We just got power back last night around 7. We live near Antoine & 290. I've never seen anything like that storm and hope to never see one again. Feels like hurricane dress rehearsal. Missed Y'all !
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4605
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
028
FXUS64 KHGX 211845
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
With no major changes to the synoptic pattern expected in the
immediate term as upper ridging continues to remain the main feature
over the South Central CONUS, the warm and humid pattern is expected
to prevail through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
As such, the main weather story for the time being remains the
potential for elevated heat impacts. Latest observations show some
heat index values breaking into the triple digits this afternoon, a
trend that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. With
this being an early season heat event and thus heat acclimation
being relatively low, it will remain important to consider heat
safety actions if performing any sort of strenuous outdoor activity.
Experimental HeatRisk values, which take into account the departure
from climatological normal temperatures, remain at a Moderate level
today and will generally remain at this level tomorrow. The heat
impacts of highs near 90 today and tomorrow will be compounded
further by very high dew point values, generally sitting in the
upper 70s across most of the area. Overnight lows will sit in the
upper 70s to near 80.
Some isolated showers and storms are possible tomorrow across the
far northern zones as a series of weak midlevel shortwaves pass to
our north. While most of the resultant precipitation should fall
closer to the D/FW metro area, an isolated storm or two can`t be
ruled out across positions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
UL ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through at least
the weekend. Thursday`s conditions are forecast to be very similar
to Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures are likely to become hotter by
Friday and especially this weekend as LL cyclogenesis over
Oklahoma veers the 850-700MB flow to the southwest. The resulting
WAA aloft will boost 850MB temps several degrees centigrade by
week`s end. Friday afternoon temps are expected to average in the
low 90s. Western, inland counties could make a run for the mid 90s
while the immediate coast remains in the mid/upper 80s. But by
Saturday and Sunday, much of the inland CWA could be in the mid
90s while coastal areas approach the 90 degree mark. Weak
shortwaves aloft along with plentiful LL moisture will be fighting
a stout cap thanks to the ridge. Therefore, PoPs are very low
this weekend (0-10%). Best chance of an isolated rogue shower will
be in our northernmost counties. A frontal boundary associated
with a potential developing low over Oklahoma may approach the
region by Monday or Tuesday of next week. But my confidence in a
front (even a week front) making it down here early next week is
pretty low. For now, the early outlook for Memorial Day is quite
hot (widespread mid 90s) and humid. Heat index values this weekend
and early next week could approach heat advisory criteria.
Experimental HeatRisk values suggest Major (Level 3 of 4) to
Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Risk over the weekend into Monday. For
those of you planning to spend your holiday weekend outside, be
advised that temperatures and humidity may be quite high, even for
Houston late May standards. Overnight lows are expected to fall
into the mid 70s to low 80s. Low PoPs (10-20%) are introduced
north of I-10 Monday evening/night due to the potential
aforementioned frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Scattered MVFR cigs will continue to improve marginally over the
next few hours, with a period of largely VFR cigs expected through
sunset. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will develop after 00Z, with the
greatest chances for IFR cigs near the coast and across the
northern terminals. Sustained winds remain around 10-12 knots, and
a few wind gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon.
Overnight, winds mainly diminish to under 10 knots with the wind
direction remaining out of the southeast. Some improvement to cigs
is expected by daybreak tomorrow, but MVFR conditions may linger
into the early afternoon yet again.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A persistent, generally moderate southeasterly flow regime is
likely to continue through the weekend. At times, winds will be
strong enough to warrant caution flags and possibly small craft
advisories. Offshore seas are expected to average 3 to 5 feet.
However, seas could occasionally reach 6-7 feet offshore. Rain
chances remain low through the forecast period. Heat and humidity
will be higher than normal through at least the weekend, if not
early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos
rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood
stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday
morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
- Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)
MINOR//
-------
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 89 75 91 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 78 87 76 90 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 83 78 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 211845
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
With no major changes to the synoptic pattern expected in the
immediate term as upper ridging continues to remain the main feature
over the South Central CONUS, the warm and humid pattern is expected
to prevail through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
As such, the main weather story for the time being remains the
potential for elevated heat impacts. Latest observations show some
heat index values breaking into the triple digits this afternoon, a
trend that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. With
this being an early season heat event and thus heat acclimation
being relatively low, it will remain important to consider heat
safety actions if performing any sort of strenuous outdoor activity.
Experimental HeatRisk values, which take into account the departure
from climatological normal temperatures, remain at a Moderate level
today and will generally remain at this level tomorrow. The heat
impacts of highs near 90 today and tomorrow will be compounded
further by very high dew point values, generally sitting in the
upper 70s across most of the area. Overnight lows will sit in the
upper 70s to near 80.
Some isolated showers and storms are possible tomorrow across the
far northern zones as a series of weak midlevel shortwaves pass to
our north. While most of the resultant precipitation should fall
closer to the D/FW metro area, an isolated storm or two can`t be
ruled out across positions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
UL ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through at least
the weekend. Thursday`s conditions are forecast to be very similar
to Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures are likely to become hotter by
Friday and especially this weekend as LL cyclogenesis over
Oklahoma veers the 850-700MB flow to the southwest. The resulting
WAA aloft will boost 850MB temps several degrees centigrade by
week`s end. Friday afternoon temps are expected to average in the
low 90s. Western, inland counties could make a run for the mid 90s
while the immediate coast remains in the mid/upper 80s. But by
Saturday and Sunday, much of the inland CWA could be in the mid
90s while coastal areas approach the 90 degree mark. Weak
shortwaves aloft along with plentiful LL moisture will be fighting
a stout cap thanks to the ridge. Therefore, PoPs are very low
this weekend (0-10%). Best chance of an isolated rogue shower will
be in our northernmost counties. A frontal boundary associated
with a potential developing low over Oklahoma may approach the
region by Monday or Tuesday of next week. But my confidence in a
front (even a week front) making it down here early next week is
pretty low. For now, the early outlook for Memorial Day is quite
hot (widespread mid 90s) and humid. Heat index values this weekend
and early next week could approach heat advisory criteria.
Experimental HeatRisk values suggest Major (Level 3 of 4) to
Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Risk over the weekend into Monday. For
those of you planning to spend your holiday weekend outside, be
advised that temperatures and humidity may be quite high, even for
Houston late May standards. Overnight lows are expected to fall
into the mid 70s to low 80s. Low PoPs (10-20%) are introduced
north of I-10 Monday evening/night due to the potential
aforementioned frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Scattered MVFR cigs will continue to improve marginally over the
next few hours, with a period of largely VFR cigs expected through
sunset. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will develop after 00Z, with the
greatest chances for IFR cigs near the coast and across the
northern terminals. Sustained winds remain around 10-12 knots, and
a few wind gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon.
Overnight, winds mainly diminish to under 10 knots with the wind
direction remaining out of the southeast. Some improvement to cigs
is expected by daybreak tomorrow, but MVFR conditions may linger
into the early afternoon yet again.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A persistent, generally moderate southeasterly flow regime is
likely to continue through the weekend. At times, winds will be
strong enough to warrant caution flags and possibly small craft
advisories. Offshore seas are expected to average 3 to 5 feet.
However, seas could occasionally reach 6-7 feet offshore. Rain
chances remain low through the forecast period. Heat and humidity
will be higher than normal through at least the weekend, if not
early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos
rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood
stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday
morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
- Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)
MINOR//
-------
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 89 75 91 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 78 87 76 90 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 83 78 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Self
Reed Timmer just filmed the wildest tornado I have ever seen in my life.
https://youtu.be/R_ZDVYzIhgc?si=vSH5CzhhwanB6nEF
https://youtu.be/R_ZDVYzIhgc?si=vSH5CzhhwanB6nEF
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:33 pm Reed Timmer just filmed the wildest tornado I have ever seen in my life.
https://youtu.be/R_ZDVYzIhgc?si=vSH5CzhhwanB6nEF
I watched it live. It destroyed several wind turbines and started a huge fire from one.
It had at least 3 distinct vortices with it
I got several screenshots of it. Insane.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4331
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The euro (00z) is definitely wetter than the GFS
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4605
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
596
FXUS64 KHGX 220824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Have made some fcst adjustments this evening and tonight worth
noting across the northern 1/3 of the CWA.
This morning, we`ll see some shortwaves moving over the top of broad
mid level ridging situated over Mexico and South Texas and across
the region. Column becomes fairly saturated from 600mb on up for
inland parts of the region, but a significant dry subcloud layer
along with capping should keep things limited to light rain or
sprinkles - if anything.
This afternoon, anticipate shower and tstm development across north
Texas along a frontal boundary. This activity will probably back
build to near the dryline and eventually congeal s/sewd moving line.
Along with higher PW values pooling ahead of the front, the
atmosphere will be much more unstable up that way. The question now
becomes is how far south this convection gets before losing
instability, encountering some capping ~700mb (most pronounced as
one gets closer to the coast), and eventually dissipating.
The vast majority of the 00z model guidance indicates a further
south qpf field than earlier runs...and the CAMs even more so. If a
significant enough cold pool develops behind the convection, it`s
not out of the realm of possibility that this line, and associated
risk of strong winds and hail, could make its way into the northern
1/3 of the CWA in the 6pm-midnight timeframe before decaying and
dissipating. Several of the 00z HREF members were quite salty in
regards to potential storm intensity, but the 6z HRRR run has backed
off a touch. A difficult forecast with mesocale factors coming into
play, but those living north of about the TX-105 corridor should
keep track of the latest fcst if you have outdoor plans later this
evening. Have bumped POPs up there with a heavier weight of CAMs
mixed in. Also threw in the mention isolated severe storms in the
grids. Think the metro area itself will probably be too capped for
significant wx, in addition to increasingly less favorable timing.
Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will prevail through the period.
Continued moderate onshore winds and elevated dewpoints will keep
readings 5-9F above normal - most notable at night with the lack of
a substantial cooling period. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
I wish that I had better news for y`all about the forecast, but
everything is still on track for this period of well above normal
temperatures to continue. Prepare for a holiday weekend of
sizzling...and we`re not just talking about the barbecue grill!
Upper level riding aloft continues to prevail with an upper level
high remaining over northern Mexico into the weekend. There are some
rain chances to talk about along with an approaching frontal
boundary, but don`t let that distract you from making preparations
to stay safe from the heat over the upcoming days...especially those
with outdoor plans for the holiday weekend.
On Friday, we`ll have a weak surface low over north Texas with a
frontal boundary draped across the state. Since we`ll be in the warm
sector, our humidity will be fairly high. So, even though high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s...it`ll feel like it`s
101-105F. Temperatures continue to climb over the weekend as
southwesterly flow aloft becomes established around 850mb leading to
850mb temperatures approaching their MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS).
Some of this warmer air aloft will be able to mix down to the
surface leading to increasingly hotter temperatures. On Saturday,
we`re looking at more locations reaching the mid 90s. On Sunday,
most locations north of I-10 look to reach the upper 90s. Now
remember that frontal boundary mentioned earlier? It`s still
meandering around just west of central Texas, so we remain in the
warm sector with plentiful humidity. As a result, expect heat index
values to approach and maybe even exceed our Heat Advisory criteria
(greater than or equal to 108F) as heat index values will be well
into the 100s. The crazy thing is...the weekend isn`t even the peak
of this round of heat!
Monday/Memorial Day will be the hottest day of the year (the hottest
day of the year so far!) with most locations topping out in the
upper 90s. The lone exception will be those along the coast, but
even then it`s still going to feel well above 100F for all of us.
Forecast heat index values continue to point towards the likelihood
of a widespread Heat Advisory with values ranging from 107-112F.
The timing of the frontal boundary getting closer as it gets a push
from a passing upper level low in the Central Plains does play a
role here due to compressional heating out ahead of the front. Now
let`s talk about heat risk. Friday through Monday most of the area
is outlined in a "Major" risk (level 4 out of 5) which means that
this level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. There won`t be much relief during the overnight
hours either as low temperatures will only bottom out in the upper
70s to near 80F. The average first day of 95+F temperatures for
the City of Houston is June 13th, so this is an early season bout of
heat and our bodies are not yet acclimated to it. This is occuring
on a holiday weekend and we know that you may have outdoor plans, so
PLEASE be sure to practice heat safety to protect yourselves and
your loved ones. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks from
the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part
of the day, wear loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat
stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you
lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Don`t forget the sunscreen too!
It`s still a bit too early to place too much faith in the frontal
boundary actually pushing through southeast Texas late Monday, but
if it does then it`ll bring a chance of rain mainly for locations
north of I-10. Even beyond the front, things look a bit uncertain
into early next week as far as if we`ll see continued rain chances
or if the next building ridge cuts us off from any meaningful rain
chances again. Only time will tell!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Pretty much a rinse-repeat aviation forecast with MVFR/IFR ceilings
night gradually lifting int VFR territory during the late morning
and early afternoons. Exception will be the plan to add some VCTS`s
for CLL/UTS and possibly CXO this evening for potential storms as
described above. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Generally moderate onshore flow will continue into the weekend.
Winds and seas will periodically increase enough for caution flags
and possibly advisories. After midweek, seas (especially in the
offshore waters) will become elevated in the 4-6 ft range. The
persistent onshore flow will bring a high risk of rip currents
through the end of the week.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The following river points are either currently in flood stage
(as of ~3AM Wednesday morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flooding continues.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 77 92 77 / 20 40 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 79 92 78 / 20 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 80 87 81 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 220824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Have made some fcst adjustments this evening and tonight worth
noting across the northern 1/3 of the CWA.
This morning, we`ll see some shortwaves moving over the top of broad
mid level ridging situated over Mexico and South Texas and across
the region. Column becomes fairly saturated from 600mb on up for
inland parts of the region, but a significant dry subcloud layer
along with capping should keep things limited to light rain or
sprinkles - if anything.
This afternoon, anticipate shower and tstm development across north
Texas along a frontal boundary. This activity will probably back
build to near the dryline and eventually congeal s/sewd moving line.
Along with higher PW values pooling ahead of the front, the
atmosphere will be much more unstable up that way. The question now
becomes is how far south this convection gets before losing
instability, encountering some capping ~700mb (most pronounced as
one gets closer to the coast), and eventually dissipating.
The vast majority of the 00z model guidance indicates a further
south qpf field than earlier runs...and the CAMs even more so. If a
significant enough cold pool develops behind the convection, it`s
not out of the realm of possibility that this line, and associated
risk of strong winds and hail, could make its way into the northern
1/3 of the CWA in the 6pm-midnight timeframe before decaying and
dissipating. Several of the 00z HREF members were quite salty in
regards to potential storm intensity, but the 6z HRRR run has backed
off a touch. A difficult forecast with mesocale factors coming into
play, but those living north of about the TX-105 corridor should
keep track of the latest fcst if you have outdoor plans later this
evening. Have bumped POPs up there with a heavier weight of CAMs
mixed in. Also threw in the mention isolated severe storms in the
grids. Think the metro area itself will probably be too capped for
significant wx, in addition to increasingly less favorable timing.
Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will prevail through the period.
Continued moderate onshore winds and elevated dewpoints will keep
readings 5-9F above normal - most notable at night with the lack of
a substantial cooling period. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
I wish that I had better news for y`all about the forecast, but
everything is still on track for this period of well above normal
temperatures to continue. Prepare for a holiday weekend of
sizzling...and we`re not just talking about the barbecue grill!
Upper level riding aloft continues to prevail with an upper level
high remaining over northern Mexico into the weekend. There are some
rain chances to talk about along with an approaching frontal
boundary, but don`t let that distract you from making preparations
to stay safe from the heat over the upcoming days...especially those
with outdoor plans for the holiday weekend.
On Friday, we`ll have a weak surface low over north Texas with a
frontal boundary draped across the state. Since we`ll be in the warm
sector, our humidity will be fairly high. So, even though high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s...it`ll feel like it`s
101-105F. Temperatures continue to climb over the weekend as
southwesterly flow aloft becomes established around 850mb leading to
850mb temperatures approaching their MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS).
Some of this warmer air aloft will be able to mix down to the
surface leading to increasingly hotter temperatures. On Saturday,
we`re looking at more locations reaching the mid 90s. On Sunday,
most locations north of I-10 look to reach the upper 90s. Now
remember that frontal boundary mentioned earlier? It`s still
meandering around just west of central Texas, so we remain in the
warm sector with plentiful humidity. As a result, expect heat index
values to approach and maybe even exceed our Heat Advisory criteria
(greater than or equal to 108F) as heat index values will be well
into the 100s. The crazy thing is...the weekend isn`t even the peak
of this round of heat!
Monday/Memorial Day will be the hottest day of the year (the hottest
day of the year so far!) with most locations topping out in the
upper 90s. The lone exception will be those along the coast, but
even then it`s still going to feel well above 100F for all of us.
Forecast heat index values continue to point towards the likelihood
of a widespread Heat Advisory with values ranging from 107-112F.
The timing of the frontal boundary getting closer as it gets a push
from a passing upper level low in the Central Plains does play a
role here due to compressional heating out ahead of the front. Now
let`s talk about heat risk. Friday through Monday most of the area
is outlined in a "Major" risk (level 4 out of 5) which means that
this level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. There won`t be much relief during the overnight
hours either as low temperatures will only bottom out in the upper
70s to near 80F. The average first day of 95+F temperatures for
the City of Houston is June 13th, so this is an early season bout of
heat and our bodies are not yet acclimated to it. This is occuring
on a holiday weekend and we know that you may have outdoor plans, so
PLEASE be sure to practice heat safety to protect yourselves and
your loved ones. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks from
the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part
of the day, wear loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat
stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you
lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Don`t forget the sunscreen too!
It`s still a bit too early to place too much faith in the frontal
boundary actually pushing through southeast Texas late Monday, but
if it does then it`ll bring a chance of rain mainly for locations
north of I-10. Even beyond the front, things look a bit uncertain
into early next week as far as if we`ll see continued rain chances
or if the next building ridge cuts us off from any meaningful rain
chances again. Only time will tell!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Pretty much a rinse-repeat aviation forecast with MVFR/IFR ceilings
night gradually lifting int VFR territory during the late morning
and early afternoons. Exception will be the plan to add some VCTS`s
for CLL/UTS and possibly CXO this evening for potential storms as
described above. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Generally moderate onshore flow will continue into the weekend.
Winds and seas will periodically increase enough for caution flags
and possibly advisories. After midweek, seas (especially in the
offshore waters) will become elevated in the 4-6 ft range. The
persistent onshore flow will bring a high risk of rip currents
through the end of the week.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The following river points are either currently in flood stage
(as of ~3AM Wednesday morning):
MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major
MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate
MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flooding continues.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 77 92 77 / 20 40 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 79 92 78 / 20 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 80 87 81 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
At least 6 by my count. It was like a fire ant mound of vortices.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 10:57 pmCromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:33 pm Reed Timmer just filmed the wildest tornado I have ever seen in my life.
https://youtu.be/R_ZDVYzIhgc?si=vSH5CzhhwanB6nEF
I watched it live. It destroyed several wind turbines and started a huge fire from one.
It had at least 3 distinct vortices with it
I got several screenshots of it. Insane.
50/50 shot of severe weather this evening in CLL.
If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s
Yeah there’s a lot to unpack in that video. Plus it serves as a great example of why you do not want to be in the Downtown area during a hurricane or derecho due to the funneling of strong winds.don wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 11:11 am If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s
Holy **** at the tornado just sucking out the back window and tossing it far to the left. Is Matt Lanza still claiming just straight line winds and building corners...don wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 11:11 am If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s