May 2024
Stormed like crazy in southern Brazoria County. It rained at the house, but nothing in comparison to Angleton and points south. Only got 0.5 inch.
Got nasty at the office 290/Hollister area....but hardly anything here in Cypress. Nice rain, .25".
The next storm system to watch is this Thursday,we may see another MCS.It's nice having a normal Spring for once.
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Well Friday and or Saturday may end up stormy also as the frontal boundary will still be stalled somewhere in the area.Beyond that ridging takes hold for at least a few days maybe more, though models show another pacific trough digging to our west by mid next week.The question will be if ridging will flatten enough to allow energy to cutoff from the main trough and move through the state again.Still too far out to have confidence either way.
( GFS vs EURO below)
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HGX already mentioning Thursday.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4305
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Mesocale runs will be interesting once they get in range of thursday/ friday
don wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 10:58 pmWell Friday and or Saturday may end up stormy also as the frontal boundary will still be stalled somewhere in the area.Beyond that ridging takes hold for at least a few days maybe more, though models show another pacific trough digging to our west by mid next week.The question will be if ridging will flatten enough to allow energy to cutoff from the main trough and move through the state again.Still too far out to have confidence either way.
( GFS vs EURO below)
Yeah, I think we sit on top of a tropical ridge for awhile after this weekend. Easterly flow. Occasional seabreeze storms. Not a bad pattern if we get Caribbean blocking. Certainly better than the Death Ridge overhead.
A gully washer Thursday evening.
They need to up mosquito spraying big time. It's absolutely ridiculous already.
One last Chamber of Commerce Day before more rain and then The Big Suck.
Enjoy! Clear, dry days have been a rarity this Spring.
Enjoy! Clear, dry days have been a rarity this Spring.
There’s already a day 3 moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the same areas that have already been inundated with rain over the past couple weeks.. sheesh.
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 - 12Z Fri May 17 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...Portions of East Texas and Northern and Western Louisiana...
Yet another round of very heavy rainfall is expected Thursday and
Thursday night across the many of the same very hard hit areas of
east Texas through northern and western Louisiana that keep getting
hit with very heavy rain, including just yesterday in some areas.
A positively tilted longwave trough with attendant 100+ kt jet
streak rounding the southern/eastern sides of the trough and
attendant shortwave will all eject out of the southern Rockies and
across Texas Thursday and approach Louisiana Thursday night. Return
flow off the Gulf will tap into impressive amounts of atmospheric
moisture for any time of year. PWATs will climb above 2.25 inches
for the upper Texas Coast, southwestern Louisiana, and extending
well inland. This is above the 95th percentile for this time of
year compared with climatology, and more than 3 sigma above normal.
In addition to atmospheric moisture, abundant surface moisture will
be available as moderate to major flooding is already ongoing
across much of this area. The aforementioned trough, jet streak,
shortwave, and enhanced upper level diffluence supporting
additional lift, and will all combine forces over this already
exceptionally hard hit area.
With weak surface forcing synoptically, outflow boundaries will
likely be the primary forcing at the surface...but given all the
other very favorable ingredients in place that should be all that
it takes to result in MCS development. The abundant moisture will
allow the MCS to persist as it moves across eastern Texas and into
western Louisiana through Thursday night. The embedded convection
will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 3 inches per hour,
with the strongest storms capable of higher. Instability will not
be a problem either, as the abnormally moist atmosphere and strong
May sun will advect MUCAPE values over 3,000 J/kg into the
southern/western sides of the MCS. This will support backbuilding
convection, slowing the overall movement of the MCS. West-pointing
Corfidi
Vectors will be orthogonal to the southerly flow of moisture and
instability into the MCS. This will support convection developing
along the outflow boundaries that are part of the MCS, and training
with the MCS over the same areas, locally enhancing storm total
rainfall.
In coordination with SHV/Shreveport, LA; FWD/Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX; HGX/Houston, TX; LCH/Lake Charles, LA; and JAN/Jackson, MS
forecast offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this
update. Given the above synoptic setup, it seems probable that a
High Risk consideration may need to be given in future forecasts,
especially if the "bulls-eye" of heaviest rain remains over this
hard hit areas of Texas and Louisiana. Moderate to Major flooding
is already ongoing across much of east Texas even before the start
of this event, and drainage has been slow...such that the much
needed 2 day break is unlikely to alleviate potential flash
flooding concerns much. Considerable/significant flash flooding is
likely in the Moderate Risk area. That said, this event still
being on forecast Day 3, there remains quite a bit of time for the
forecast to change, and almost any movement of the heaviest
rainfall would result in lessening flooding concerns. That said,
guidance has been in very good agreement on the placement of this
heaviest rain for several days already, which lends confidence to
this scenario unfolding for the Moderate Risk upgrade.
Despite very good agreement in most of the guidance for a Day 3
forecast, the American models (NAM/GFS) have been distinct
outliers in suggesting this event will not occur at all, with any
heavy convection staying well north and west into Oklahoma. These
models have been discarded as part of the forecast given the very
good agreement in all of the rest of the guidance. It should be
noted however that as persistent as all of the foreign guidance has
been in forecasting this event, the NAM and GFS have been equally
persistent that it will not happen.
Wegman
don wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 12:56 pm wpc_excessive_rainfall_dayjh3.us_sc.png
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 - 12Z Fri May 17 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...Portions of East Texas and Northern and Western Louisiana...
Yet another round of very heavy rainfall is expected Thursday and
Thursday night across the many of the same very hard hit areas of
east Texas through northern and western Louisiana that keep getting
hit with very heavy rain, including just yesterday in some areas.
A positively tilted longwave trough with attendant 100+ kt jet
streak rounding the southern/eastern sides of the trough and
attendant shortwave will all eject out of the southern Rockies and
across Texas Thursday and approach Louisiana Thursday night. Return
flow off the Gulf will tap into impressive amounts of atmospheric
moisture for any time of year. PWATs will climb above 2.25 inches
for the upper Texas Coast, southwestern Louisiana, and extending
well inland. This is above the 95th percentile for this time of
year compared with climatology, and more than 3 sigma above normal.
In addition to atmospheric moisture, abundant surface moisture will
be available as moderate to major flooding is already ongoing
across much of this area. The aforementioned trough, jet streak,
shortwave, and enhanced upper level diffluence supporting
additional lift, and will all combine forces over this already
exceptionally hard hit area.
With weak surface forcing synoptically, outflow boundaries will
likely be the primary forcing at the surface...but given all the
other very favorable ingredients in place that should be all that
it takes to result in MCS development. The abundant moisture will
allow the MCS to persist as it moves across eastern Texas and into
western Louisiana through Thursday night. The embedded convection
will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 3 inches per hour,
with the strongest storms capable of higher. Instability will not
be a problem either, as the abnormally moist atmosphere and strong
May sun will advect MUCAPE values over 3,000 J/kg into the
southern/western sides of the MCS. This will support backbuilding
convection, slowing the overall movement of the MCS. West-pointing
Corfidi
Vectors will be orthogonal to the southerly flow of moisture and
instability into the MCS. This will support convection developing
along the outflow boundaries that are part of the MCS, and training
with the MCS over the same areas, locally enhancing storm total
rainfall.
In coordination with SHV/Shreveport, LA; FWD/Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX; HGX/Houston, TX; LCH/Lake Charles, LA; and JAN/Jackson, MS
forecast offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this
update. Given the above synoptic setup, it seems probable that a
High Risk consideration may need to be given in future forecasts,
especially if the "bulls-eye" of heaviest rain remains over this
hard hit areas of Texas and Louisiana. Moderate to Major flooding
is already ongoing across much of east Texas even before the start
of this event, and drainage has been slow...such that the much
needed 2 day break is unlikely to alleviate potential flash
flooding concerns much. Considerable/significant flash flooding is
likely in the Moderate Risk area. That said, this event still
being on forecast Day 3, there remains quite a bit of time for the
forecast to change, and almost any movement of the heaviest
rainfall would result in lessening flooding concerns. That said,
guidance has been in very good agreement on the placement of this
heaviest rain for several days already, which lends confidence to
this scenario unfolding for the Moderate Risk upgrade.
Despite very good agreement in most of the guidance for a Day 3
forecast, the American models (NAM/GFS) have been distinct
outliers in suggesting this event will not occur at all, with any
heavy convection staying well north and west into Oklahoma. These
models have been discarded as part of the forecast given the very
good agreement in all of the rest of the guidance. It should be
noted however that as persistent as all of the foreign guidance has
been in forecasting this event, the NAM and GFS have been equally
persistent that it will not happen.
Wegman
Same as it ever was...
Although the last 2 systems didn't drop as much rain as expected. I'd hate for the mosquito pop. density to get much higher.
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Just my two cents, but I dont believe we are in for a brutal summer like what we had last year, in fact i'm pretty confident we will have more daily opportunities for sea breeze storms, their is discussion going that the death ridge may set up shop more over the far SW and western US, which would keep the core of the worst heat away from texas, but that also will leave the gulf wide open to some big tropical trouble as well potentially, we will still have a few days in the 100’s, but i think this summer will at least be more “wetter” in my opinion
It will be interesting to see how wet June ends up this year. As June is Houstons wettest month on average.