Wind and hail. Get ready!
May 2024
Worst of it looks to be south of I-10.
Noticed that trend on the recent HRRR runs this morning as well, keeping most of the action to the south/southwest of I-10. Models seemed to have struggled with the timing and growth out west this morning and will have to play catch up so it will be interesting to see how everything evolves over the next few hours. Nowcasting at it's finest.
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South central TX to southern LA through tonight...
A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas
near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE
of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer
vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3
inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon.
Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the
afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled
front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail
threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80
mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving
across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the
wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast
of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL,
with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the
storms from the west.
Watch coming.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...southern Texas into southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 131739Z - 131945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream of WW235. Downstream
watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A mix of clustered cells and supercell structures have
been ongoing across portions of south-central Texas producing
instances of quarter to half dollar size hail. Ahead of this
activity, dew points are in the upper 70s to near 80 with MLCAPE
around 3000-4000 J/kg. This, in combination with strong deep layer
shear around 45-50 kts will continue to support supercells capable
of very large hail (2-3.5 in). Trends suggest thunderstorms will
gradually grow upscale while moving along a stalled front through
the late afternoon/evening. This will lead to an increase in
damaging wind threat, with potential for wind speeds 70+ mph and a
tornado or two. A downstream watch will likely be needed to cover
this threat.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024
Storms are getting stronger out there as they move towards SE Texas...
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-140100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0237.240513T1800Z-240514T0100Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU
CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON
TXC015-039-041-051-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-239-241-245-291-
321-339-351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-140100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0237.240513T1800Z-240514T0100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS COLORADO
FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES
HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
Last edited by don on Mon May 13, 2024 1:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Man, this came in way faster than I expected.
It looks like one cluster is headed for Houston along or south of I-10 and another cluster from Austin headed to CLL
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Some right turner cellsdon wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 1:15 pm Storms are getting stronger out there as they move towards SE Texas...
Screenshot 2024-05-13 at 13-15-44 NWS Radar.png
ww0237_overview_wou.gif
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-140100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0237.240513T1800Z-240514T0100Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU
CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON
TXC015-039-041-051-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-239-241-245-291-
321-339-351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-140100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0237.240513T1800Z-240514T0100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS COLORADO
FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES
HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
It doesn’t look as bad as I expected. Mainly just some heavy rains.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4307
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Subbing at my mothers school in memorial, man it is absolutely dumping out, the flood gates have opened!
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Houstonkid
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:31 pm
- Contact:
Torrential rain and pea sized hail here at 290/Tidwell.
Looks like the severe stuff will be mostly south of me now. Outflow just kicked out to the south and the gap of instability to the SW is now closed off.
I’ve hardly got anything at my house so far while my sister in East Bernard got a flood again. That first wave just missed me a few miles to my north and I caught the southern tail of it that only lasted a few minutes of moderate rain. And judging by the look of the radar, it looks like that second line is falling apart as it approaches my area. Frustrating.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon May 13, 2024 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
TXC201-291-339-131945-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-240513T1945Z/
Montgomery TX-Liberty TX-Harris TX-
233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN
HARRIS COUNTIES...
At 233 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kingwood,
moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Humble, Kingwood, Aldine, Spring, Crosby, Roman Forest, Plum Grove,
Bush Intercontinental Airport, Atascocita, Houston Gardens, East
Houston, Lake Houston Dam, Lake Houston, East Little York /
Homestead, Settegast, Eastex / Jensen Area, and Porter.
Just had a funnel cloud sighted near Ridge Point HS in Sienna about 10 min ago
Nasty cells headed toward West Columbia
I jinxed it earlier. Weak sauce up here. A whole 0.05” with just some light showers remaining now.
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